How good is Kendrick Bourne?

[ivanvamp]

Narrator: Bourne is an excellent complementary receiver. He may be our best WR. But he lacks the ability to create separation on a consistent basis and he doesn’t make plays like Deebo or Chase. He would be even more effective playing alongside a player like that.

I don't know who to compare him to, but the dude makes plays.

 

[Ring 6]

The simple fact a FA veteran WR was successful here Year 1 that didn't come from an E/P system prior is a miracle in itself. Bourne had a great 2021 here. Expectations exceeded.

However i'm not sure Bourne is more than a 50/800 guy here as the team was a 51/49 pass/run % team in 2021. If he was more he'd be a 80/1200 guy who gets 120 targets a year which puts him in the category of who @Sciz listed.

I don't think he is at their level.

There are a lot of variables to that. Probably not when comparing an 800 yard guy to the top producers in the league, but a huge function of WR production is opportunity.
As an example, when Welker was here he was the #1 progression on basically every play that wasn’t Moss when he was also here.
So basically if Welker gets open, Welker gets the ball AND the route combinations are designed in order to get Welker open.
Bourne was far from that. Often he was running the route designed to get someone else open. And if he did get open he may never get looked at.
Thats not to say he is capable of getting open more as the primary target just that he doesn’t have that opportunity and his best case production is capped at a lower level that players who do.
The other factor is that Bourne only played 52% of the snaps. So again you can’t say he would produce twice as much if he played them all because players who play situationally have a big advantage in per snap numbers.

My feeling is that he is a candidate for a larger role and may do well in it.

 

[Ring 6]

Let's hope that was the issue but I don't think so. Let's hope for a Jonnu Smith who is more comfortable with the offense and confident in what he needs to do in the passing game.

I think it’s clear that they signed Smith thinking he was ready to break out and they were disappointed with his play.
Hopefully he gets it together and harvests the potential they saw in him.

 

[palialka]

I think that KB can evolve into a solid #2 receiver. I’m excited about what year 2 will bring as he and Mac continue to evolve their chemistry. He has some big play capability.

Meyers is a solid #3 receiver who’s a dependable, move the chains guy who can occasionally break free for a big one. He definitely fills a role on this team.

What we lack is a true #1 who can grab everything and carry an offense when need be (obviously with good QB play). You just see the difference between us and other teams with the likes of Deebo, Tyreek and Diggs. To think we drafted Harry before Deebo…shakes head!

 

[RobertWeathers]

There are a lot of variables to that. Probably not when comparing an 800 yard guy to the top producers in the league, but a huge function of WR production is opportunity.
As an example, when Welker was here he was the #1 progression on basically every play that wasn’t Moss when he was also here.
So basically if Welker gets open, Welker gets the ball AND the route combinations are designed in order to get Welker open.
Bourne was far from that. Often he was running the route designed to get someone else open. And if he did get open he may never get looked at.
Thats not to say he is capable of getting open more as the primary target just that he doesn’t have that opportunity and his best case production is capped at a lower level that players who do.
The other factor is that Bourne only played 52% of the snaps. So again you can’t say he would produce twice as much if he played them all because players who play situationally have a big advantage in per snap numbers.

My feeling is that he is a candidate for a larger role and may do well in it.

Yep. Maybe Bourne was a 1st option a good number of times but because Mac felt he needed to rush or the protection was weak he defaulted to Meyers. Not sure.

I certainly think Bourne is capable of more but how much more his skillset allows and what a run-heavy offense can facilitate in terms of more opportunities.

 

[Ring 6]

Yep. Maybe Bourne was a 1st option a good number of times but because Mac felt he needed to rush or the protection was weak he defaulted to Meyers. Not sure.

I certainly think Bourne is capable of more but how much more his skillset allows and what a run-heavy offense can facilitate in terms of more opportunities.

We have seen a tendency for Mac to not give deeper primary routes time to develop and checking down too soon.

 

[Rob0729]

I think Bourne could be a solid to excellent #2 WR. Unfortunately, he was used as the #3 WR for most of the year. Ironically, Meyers is better suited to be the #3 WR and he was mostly used as the primary WR.

 

[Nunchucks]

Bourne had trouble with the offense, another year in the system should help. I expect him to be much better next year. The patriots still need a slot receiver who can get open quick.

 

[Sicilian]

Yep. Maybe Bourne was a 1st option a good number of times but because Mac felt he needed to rush or the protection was weak he defaulted to Meyers. Not sure.

I certainly think Bourne is capable of more but how much more his skillset allows and what a run-heavy offense can facilitate in terms of more opportunities.

I guess another question though is how much of the Patriots run-heavy offensive mindset is due to their QB situation the last two years, versus what their ultimate preference is. Having Cam Newton followed by a rookie QB does potentially create an artificial limit to how many passes you want to throw, because you can't really layer in every passing concept you'd like to every game (and the more you do the same ones, the faster the defenses catch up to them). I'll be curious to see what the run/pass ratio is next year. I'd imagine in year 2 with Mac it will skew a bit more towards pass, even if the weapons remain exactly the same. Even more so if they add a more dynamic WR to the mix. Though in the case of the latter, the extra looks that guy would get would probably negate any new looks that Bourne would get because of the increased drop backs.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

We have seen a tendency for Mac to not give deeper primary routes time to develop and checking down too soon.

Considering the high sack percentage, even with a short time to throw, I have a hard time seeing where he regularly had time to spare. It's not like he was that often seeing ghosts due to the pressure. Rather he hung in reasonably well, though I'm sure his patience will improve as he and his receivers get more on the same wavelength.

 

[Ring 6]

I guess another question though is how much of the Patriots run-heavy offensive mindset is due to their QB situation the last two years, versus what their ultimate preference is. Having Cam Newton followed by a rookie QB does potentially create an artificial limit to how many passes you want to throw, because you can't really layer in every passing concept you'd like to every game (and the more you do the same ones, the faster the defenses catch up to them). I'll be curious to see what the run/pass ratio is next year. I'd imagine in year 2 with Mac it will skew a bit more towards pass, even if the weapons remain exactly the same. Even more so if they add a more dynamic WR to the mix. Though in the case of the latter, the extra looks that guy would get would probably negate any new looks that Bourne would get because of the increased drop backs.

They are going to want to throw it 50 times when that’s the best way to attack a team and run it 50 when that is.
This years run/pass result was dramatically affected by the buffalo game and only 3 passes but no doubt they were hesitant to install a 50 pass kinda game plan if that’s what they would have done within Brady.
With Brady year 2, in fact week 1 or year 2, was when that changed.

 

[Ring 6]

Considering the high sack percentage, even with a short time to throw, I have a hard time seeing where he regularly had time to spare. It's not like he was that often seeing ghosts due to the pressure. Rather he hung in reasonably well, though I'm sure his patience will improve as he and his receivers get more on the same wavelength.

I don’t think he was sacked much more than most QBs.

EDIT: Patriots allowed the third FEWEST sacks, tied with KC at 28, behind buff with 27 and Tampa with 23.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I don’t think he was sacked much more than most QBs.

EDIT: Patriots allowed the third FEWEST sacks, tied with KC at 28, behind buff with 27 and Tampa with 23.

Do you know where to find the pressure numbers or where to find them without premium accounts ?

 

[Vindicate]

I share the thought that if we somehow land a true #1, Bourne and Meyers will feast. We get a lot of those folks in NE. If there is one thing NE seems decent at picking up, it's #2/#3's that matchup well against their competition. It could be seen by how quickly things would fall apart when prime Gronk would go out, Jules, etc.

That's why the Sanu trade didn't make sense to me. He wasn't what we needed, at all.

 

[Vindicate]

He reminds me of someone like LaFell or Malcolm Mitchell (who I totally forgot about but loved) in terms that they feast on #2/#3 CB's but lack against top coverage.

 

[Thelonious]

In a nutshell, I'd say he's likely to be, for a few years at least, a serviceable #2 NFL receiver. I'd put him and Jacoby right on par as to skills, but Jakobi's skills are more 3ish; Nelsons are more 2ish, if that makes sense lol. I'd say Bourne is a more easily replaced player than Jakobi is, so I would expect Jakobi's salary to be marginally higher simply on a supply/demand basis.

 

[Brotherblues]

He reminds me of someone like LaFell or Malcolm Mitchell (who I totally forgot about but loved) in terms that they feast on #2/#3 CB's but lack against top coverage.

We never got to see Mitchell's ceiling

If we had, maybe they don't feel forced to get Harry or AB or Sanu, instead taking a later round flyer on Mclaurin or Renfrow...

 

[VrabelJr]

He’s an 8 but looks like a solid 10 next to our 3s.

 

[Kasmir]

I don’t think he was sacked much more than most QBs.

EDIT: Patriots allowed the third FEWEST sacks, tied with KC at 28, behind buff with 27 and Tampa with 23.

8th lowest in adjusted sack percentage.

 

[stcjones]

Career year with 55 catches for 800 yards and 5 TDs, plus 12 rushes for 125 yards.

Shockingly, he was the #1 WR in DVOA for the season at +30.1%, i.e. Mac throwing to Bourne was the most efficient completion combination in the league.

He was also #1 in WR rushing DVOA at +140.2%

2021 Wide Receivers | Football Outsiders

www.footballoutsiders.com

Meyers (-10.7%) and Agholor (-1.3%) were below league average as completed.

Hunter Henry was 2nd in DVOA for TE's at +25.9%.

Looks like Mac could indeed really benefit from better WR's.

He’s a good #3….never going to be top elite….but he will be good here