Gosselin: Nut is vindicated - oops, it's only the first mock

[Box_O_Rocks]

Rick Gosselin's first NFL mock draft | NFL News | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

23. New England Patriots: Clay Matthews, OLB, USC

Bill Belichick also coached Clay's dad at Cleveland

Always the most important quality on a player's resume - 'did you coach his daddy?'

 

[slash83]

I'd be happy with that pick.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I'd be happy with that pick.

So would the rest of the AFCE.

 

[reflexblue]

I picked up a copy of the USA Today draft special...today. For what its worth they have the pats picking...........Connor Barwin at #23. Don't know i this is old news or not.

 

[patchick]

"Indianapolis Colts: Knowshown Moreno, HB, Georgia
Joseph Addai can't stay healthy, so help is on the way "

Remember when Addai was the big prize and the Pats were suckers for picking Maroney?

RBs are a little like laptop computers. As wonderful as the pricy, high-end models can be, they're never worth it because you have to replace them so soon.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout and CBS Sports held a chat today and has good things to say about Matthews, yet his last answer on the day goes back to touch on him too.

Chat Transcript: Rob Rang - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

And in related news and a response of sorts for Reflex, here's the CBS mockers at work with Rang's mock updated for today. NFL Draft - 2009 Mock Drafts - CBSSports.com Football

 

[reflexblue]

Rob Rang of NFL Draft Scout and CBS Sports held a chat today and has good things to say about Matthews, yet his last answer on the day goes back to touch on him too.

Chat Transcript: Rob Rang - NFL - CBSSports.com Football

And in related news and a response of sorts for Reflex, here's the CBS mockers at work with Rang's mock updated for today. NFL Draft - 2009 Mock Drafts - CBSSports.com Football

Hey i walked into a 7/11 and iwas in the news rack i thought i was buying the Sorting News when i picked it up, but bought it anyways. When i got to work and opened it, Connor Barwin #23 to the Patriots. My first thought was of Box o Rocks, and that after all the recent mocks and comments about Barwin being a 3rd round project i thought you'd want to hear that someone out there no matter how insignificant thinks your right

 

[farn]

Why even debate ? It's been a few years since BB's obsession with 1st round TEs has been satisfied... 2009 could be the year ! When all the fans and experts are yelling for "D", the hooded master will go TE again. Then : to really, really get the fanbase going, he snags QB P. White (who the Pats seem to have a man-crush on) in the 2nd... oh the board will go crazy !

 

[Revman]

When all the smoke has cleared my money is on Evander Hood-DL-Missouri. I just think Pat's front wall is and has been the beginning of the Pat's success over the past few years. Hood is 6'3-300lb , would make contributions as a rookie-eventually taking over for Seymour or Warren. his versatility to play inside is a huge bonus. He is my pick if the draft were today. Thus allowing us to sign Jason Taylor to start at olb. Keep an eye on Larry English at 34. These 2 would give Pat's an injection of youth right away.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Hey i walked into a 7/11 and iwas in the news rack i thought i was buying the Sorting News when i picked it up, but bought it anyways. When i got to work and opened it, Connor Barwin #23 to the Patriots. My first thought was of Box o Rocks, and that after all the recent mocks and comments about Barwin being a 3rd round project i thought you'd want to hear that someone out there no matter how insignificant thinks your right

USA Today is pretty insignificant, but I'm not picky about my friends (right Nut?).

 

[slash83]

Barwin or bust on this board.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

Barwin or bust on this board.

:rocker:

...

 

[patsfaninpa]

Gosselin has Andre Smith and Michael Oher on board when we pick. I'd bet anyone
on here 100 bucks neither are on draft day. If one of them is, we should pick them.

 

[mayoclinic]

I picked up a copy of the USA Today draft special...today. For what its worth they have the pats picking...........Connor Barwin at #23. Don't know i this is old news or not.

USAtoday partners with NFLdraftscout/CBSsports for all of their draft information. Rob Rang from NFLdraftscout has had Barwin going #23 to the Pats in his last 2 mocks, so presumably that's where it comes from.

 

[mayoclinic]

For what it's worth, Gosselin's 1st mock has never been particularly accurate. Here's his first mock from last year (April 11):

Rick Gosselin's NFL mock draft (4/11) | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

He had Chris Long going #6 to the Jets and Vernon Gholston #7 to the Pats. He hit precisely (player and team combo) on 3 of the top 10 picks and only 4 picks in the entire 1st round. 7/31 (22.5%) of his picks didn't end up going in the 1st round, in a year when there was much less uncertainty than this year, given the number of potential 1st round picks.

His current mock has a number of curious picks:

- Michael Crabtree to Seattle at #4. Before they signed TJ Houshmanzadeh this was a popular pick, bit I doubt they will pass on both Sanchez and Monroe for Crabtree.
- Josh Freeman to Denver at #12. Freeman doesn't seem like the kind of QB McDaniels would prefer.
- LeSean McCoy going #28 to Philadelphia. This seems like quite a stretch right now.
- Andre Smith and Michael Oher falling to 26 and 29.

I don't know if these reflect things Gosselin has heard, as he is reported to have good inside sources, but I'm a bit dubious.

Gosselin is clearly one of the best, but more so when it comes to his top 100 list than identifying clear team/player matches. He does seem to have some good sources, so as the draft approaches he's good to follow. But I wouldn't put too much stock in his picks right now.

 

[mgteich]

Gosselin's mocks have been the best of anyone over the past 5 years. We'll see how much he changes in the next two weeks with his 2nd and final mocks.

For what it's worth, Gosselin's 1st mock has never been particularly accurate. Here's his first mock from last year (April 11):

Rick Gosselin's NFL mock draft (4/11) | Sports News | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News

He had Chris Long going #6 to the Jets and Vernon Gholston #7 to the Pats. He hit precisely (player and team combo) on 3 of the top 10 picks and only 4 picks in the entire 1st round. 7/31 (22.5%) of his picks didn't end up going in the 1st round, in a year when there was much less uncertainty than this year, given the number of potential 1st round picks.

His current mock has a number of curious picks:

- Michael Crabtree to Seattle at #4. Before they signed TJ Houshmanzadeh this was a popular pick, bit I doubt they will pass on both Sanchez and Monroe for Crabtree.
- Josh Freeman to Denver at #12. Freeman doesn't seem like the kind of QB McDaniels would prefer.
- LeSean McCoy going #28 to Philadelphia. This seems like quite a stretch right now.
- Andre Smith and Michael Oher falling to 26 and 29.

I don't know if these reflect things Gosselin has heard, as he is reported to have good inside sources, but I'm a bit dubious.

Gosselin is clearly one of the best, but more so when it comes to his top 100 list than identifying clear team/player matches. He does seem to have some good sources, so as the draft approaches he's good to follow. But I wouldn't put too much stock in his picks right now.

 

[mayoclinic]

Gosselin's mocks have been the best of anyone over the past 5 years. We'll see how much he changes in the next two weeks with his 2nd and final mocks.

As I said, Gosselin is clearly one of the best. I'm not disputing that. But that doesn't mean we should take what he says as gospel, particularly on an early mock.

Here's Gosselin's final mock from last year:

Rick Gosselin's final NFL mock draft | News for Dallas, Texas | Dallas Morning News | Latest News

In terms of precise hits (team/player matches) he hit on 3 of the first 4 but only 4 of the first 10, and only 7 out of 31 (22.5%). 7/31 (22.5%) did not make the first round, including his #11 pick (Devin Thomas). And he did not have the Pats taking Mayo, who fell all the way to Pittsburgh at 23. There were strong rumors by that point (April 26) that the Pats liked Mayo and that Detroit wanted him at #15.

None of this is to disparage Gosselin. He and Mayock are probably the two best prognosticators out there. Rather, the point is how difficult it is even for the best full time professionals to figure things out correctly. So while Gosselin's mocks are interesting and following his trends is a worthwhile exercise, I would temper it with a grain or two of salt.

For what it's worth, here's Rob Rang's first round draft from today on NFLdraftscout:

NFL Draft - CBSSports.com Football

While not quite in Gosselin or Mayock's class, Rang is still one of the better draftniks out there. I personally find his draft more reasonably than Gosselin's first effort (and I'm not referring just to the Connor Barwin pick at #23). Stafford-Smith-Monroe-Sanchez-Curry seems like a much more plausible top 5 to me at this time than Gosselin's version of Stafford-Smith-Curry-Crabtree-Raji.

 

[OldNEPatsFan]

The top 5 mocks last year were

Ricky Dimon - Fantasy Football Toolbox
Robby Esch - The Huddle Report
Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports
James Christenson - NE Patriots Draft
Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert

 

[mayoclinic]

The top 5 mocks last year were

Ricky Dimon - Fantasy Football Toolbox
Robby Esch - The Huddle Report
Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports
James Christenson - NE Patriots Draft
Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert

Abromowitz's new 7 round draft is due out tomorrow, according to his website.

 

[NePatriots]

The top 5 mocks last year were

Ricky Dimon - Fantasy Football Toolbox
Robby Esch - The Huddle Report
Al Fronczak - East Coast Sports
James Christenson - NE Patriots Draft
Michael Abromowitz - The Football Expert

Thank You, Thank You...

Although if I do it for 5 years like Gosselin, then it won't be a fluke.