Front Seven Weak Link

[Synovia]

Here's the deal. Everything you think you want has a consequence.
BBs OVERRIDING philosophy is to be CONSERVATIVE.
.

With regards to what? He's had some of the highest % on going for it on fourth down. He kicked a multible probowl QB to the curb to start a 5th round rookie. He regularly passes when up multiple scores. I can go on.


Theres almost no facet of the game that the patriots have been conservative in since BB took over.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, at one time we drafted DE's and converted them to linebackers: McGinest, Bruschi and Johnson. More recently, we have used free agency to acquire our top linebackers: Vrabel, Colvin and Thomas. As you say, we have acquired a new stud every couple of years. Because of Colvin's injury we were behing the 8-ball in 2008. With a top 10 pick in hand, we went back to the draft for Mayo. WE ALSO used a third to draft a linebacker. Finally, we brought in some UDFA's. We've always had late draft choices and jag free agents as backups. So, it is now.

Yes, Colvin's injury was a setback. However, it seems that we are doing fine in acquiring linebackers. You ask that we bring in developmental players. Aren't Crable and Redd (and Robertson) enough IN ADDITION to Mayo? We have both Woods and Bruschi for 2009 while we see what we have.

We don't how best to secure Vrabel's replacement. That player may already be on the team, having spent a 3rd rounder. We hope that Guyton is Bruschi's replacement.

We could use one more draftee in this great draft, but the need is not a high priority this year. After all, we need to see if Colvin wants to come back. If he does, we need to see what he looks like after Training Camp.

BB is an innovator in many ways. He's also smart enough to copy others who have been successful. Parcells Giants and Patriots and the Pittsburgh steelers have put a lot of work into acquiring and developing linebackers and it shows. Quite frankly, Belichicks corps linebackers have largely come from those draftees.

McGinest, Bruschi, Vrabel, Johnson.

Not a free agent among them. They didn't just appear, they'll all be gone before long and we haven't replaced them.

BTW The organizations that developed our linebackers also developed a ton of stars at the position, too numerous to mention.

 

[mayoclinic]

Aren't Crable and Redd (and Robertson) enough IN ADDITION to Mayo? We have both Woods and Bruschi for 2009 while we see what we have.

No. All have potential, but none are proven, Woods is adequate at best outside of STs, Vrabel is probably a part-timer, and AD will be 32 by the time we open the regular season.

Even if all 3 of the developmental guys pan out, we STILL could use an influx of talent. I'd hate to see our season go up in smoke because of one injury, and then have us crying about bad luck and what could have been. We need a stable of young stallions on defense who can bring the heat. Since it takes 2-3 years to develop most players (outside of the rare bird like Mayo), we should be bringing in young talent now. I'm not sure that an OLB corps of Crable/Woods/Redd/Robertson (with Vrabel amd Colvin retired in 2 years and Thomas at age 34 less of a sure thing) is something we can count on. If we wait to "see what we have" and it doesn't pan out, we'll be in deep trouble. Even FAs like Colvin and Thomas take time to adjust to our system, so we can't count on going out and finding someone in FA as a quick fix if things don't work out with the youngsters.

 

[RayClay]

Yes, at one time we drafted DE's and converted them to linebackers: McGinest, Bruschi and Johnson. More recently, we have used free agency to acquire our top linebackers: Vrabel, Colvin and Thomas. As you say, we have acquired a new stud every couple of years. Because of Colvin's injury we were behing the 8-ball in 2008. With a top 10 pick in hand, we went back to the draft for Mayo. WE ALSO used a third to draft a linebacker. Finally, we brought in some UDFA's. We've always had late draft choices and jag free agents as backups. So, it is now.

Yes, Colvin's injury was a setback. However, it seems that we are doing fine in acquiring linebackers. You ask that we bring in developmental players. Aren't Crable and Redd (and Robertson) enough IN ADDITION to Mayo? We have both Woods and Bruschi for 2009 while we see what we have.

We don't how best to secure Vrabel's replacement. That player may already be on the team, having spent a 3rd rounder. We hope that Guyton is Bruschi's replacement.

We could use one more draftee in this great draft, but the need is not a high priority this year. After all, we need to see if Colvin wants to come back. If he does, we need to see what he looks like after Training Camp.

Yes, at one time we drafted DE's and converted them to linebackers: McGinest, Bruschi and Johnson.

We, being Bill Parcells, except for Ted Johnson who was a college linebacker. says inside linebacker in the {ats bio, though I don't know what Colorado played.

It would be best to acquire a young but experienced LN, but that might not be possible. If not, they need to stock through the draft or FA as they can. It would be great to have UDFAs become reliable starters, but foolhardy to count on it. It has never happened on this team, at least not yet.

 

[mgteich]

There are just so many roster spots to be allocated to linebacker, even if we rob the ST coach of the positions he has used for Izzo and Alexander. We have nine linebacker spots, and at least a couple need to be special team starters. There is room for only a couple of developmental players at most. Belichick keeps the best players. Bruschi is definitely one of them in 2009.
============================
OUR LIKELY COMPLEMENT FOR 2009
Vrabel, Thomas, Woods, Colvin, Crable
Mayo, Bruschi, Guyton
LB#9

For now, I have Redd, Robertson and Craig competing with a draft choice for this last position. Three of these players are 2008 rookies. Linebacker #9 is likely to be a 2008 or 2009 rookie. There is a limit to how much youth and inexperience we want to count on. After all, we'd like to win the Super Bowl in 2009-2010.

As a final note, Belichick has kept special team players on ther roster who are there to play Special Teams. Each year we say that Izzo and Alexander (and many, many before them) will be cut. And every year a couple make the roster at linebacker.

No. All have potential, but none are proven, Woods is adequate at best outside of STs, Vrabel is probably a part-timer, and AD will be 32 by the time we open the regular season.

Even if all 3 of the developmental guys pan out, we STILL could use an influx of talent. I'd hate to see our season go up in smoke because of one injury, and then have us crying about bad luck and what could have been. We need a stable of young stallions on defense who can bring the heat. Since it takes 2-3 years to develop most players (outside of the rare bird like Mayo), we should be bringing in young talent now. I'm not sure that an OLB corps of Crable/Woods/Redd/Robertson (with Vrabel amd Colvin retired in 2 years and Thomas at age 34 less of a sure thing) is something we can count on. If we wait to "see what we have" and it doesn't pan out, we'll be in deep trouble. Even FAs like Colvin and Thomas take time to adjust to our system, so we can't count on going out and finding someone in FA as a quick fix if things don't work out with the youngsters.

 

[DW Toys]

Yeah, so what has the defense done lately :->

I think the position of OLB pass rusher was the weakest link this year. I think Vrabel if he moves inside full time in either 2009 or 2010 as the veteran multi-purpose thumper will have more value than staying on the outside. Hopefully the Pats either draft the next Lamar Woodley or sign Suggs or another young vet OLB who can both set the edge and rush the passer.

Why draft a Suggs type? He is a FA. Yes, he is expensive but a proven commodity. How many supposed "pass rushers" have been drafted by willing NFL teams only to have them be duds. They paid millions before a snap and it takes years to develop them if at all.

Instead of spending on many under priced and under the radar FA's on the cheap this year, lets go for one or two top guys, call it a day and build up the depth with the draft. We should have at least 9 picks and more if they trade Cassel and Maroney (we can fight about him but he is still a mediocre choice at this point and made of glass).

Perhaps the most exciting year in the history of the Pats was the FA class of 2007 which was not cheap and typical of BB. But the results proved out well. Stallworth was the weakest and he even had some great days. In my opinion we go for Suggs at OLB/DE (or how about Julius Peppers?).

You have some decent CB's in the FA. The draft of Wheatly and Willhite was not awe inspiring and they have a lot to prove so they have mixed reviews. Wheatly had a history of injury and it continues here. They were not heralded coming out of college and I see nothing in my opinion once again that says "shut down". Hobbs has his moments but he is a slot CB at best. The 5'9" CB still drives me nuts. The WR are getting bigger every year and we draft smaller. I don't get it. I would like to have a shot at Asomugha but the Raiders will Tag him. If the Pays love smaller CB's, how about Dunta Robinson. Healthy he is a top CB AND better than any CB we have on the roster. Greer might work as well.

Now we adress the safety issue. The draft might work but another year is or even two is wasted in our system to develop our DB's it seems.

Sean Jones from the Browns (we get Fredo too) is an FA . He is having arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, and could be cheaper. He had four pics and 56 tackles last year. At 6'1" and 220Lbs he brings more heft than Merriweather. He will be only 27. Not a bad combo with Harrison and Tank (if resigned) in the mix. Tank will be cheaper to resign than Sanders.

If we can get a Suggs, a Jones and a Robinson (all younger too), our FA shopping will be stout. We have increased the pass rush opportunities and have upgraded the DB's plus let the kids develop. We can use draft pics on the offensive side with a little less pressure. A stud TE and G or RT. Perhaps a #3 WR even a RB.

Trades? A lost art in the NFL. CBA is a issue but there are ways. I would still love TE Gonzales for two years. They would take a third rounder. I say why not? The "O" gets better instantly. Want to go back to "D"? How about a CB like Winfield from the Vikings? They would trade him and he made the Pro Bowl this year. He is a little guy (a BB type) but made 95 tackles and had 2 sacks. He is 31 on the downside. Maybe two years left there as well. Why the Chiefs and Vikings? Because they both need a QB. For a #1 and either of these two, I would trade Cassel.

Just throwing this out for fun.

DW Toys

 

[mayoclinic]

There are just so many roster spots to be allocated to linebacker, even if we rob the ST coach of the positions he has used for Izzo and Alexander. We have nine linebacker spots, and at least a couple need to be special team starters. There is room for only a couple of developmental players at most. Belichick keeps the best players. Bruschi is definitely one of them in 2009.
============================
OUR LIKELY COMPLEMENT FOR 2009
Vrabel, Thomas, Woods, Colvin, Crable
Mayo, Bruschi, Guyton
LB#9

For now, I have Redd, Robertson and Craig competing with a draft choice for this last position. Three of these players are 2008 rookies. Linebacker #9 is likely to be a 2008 or 2009 rookie. There is a limit to how much youth and inexperience we want to count on. After all, we'd like to win the Super Bowl in 2009-2010.

As a final note, Belichick has kept special team players on ther roster who are there to play Special Teams. Each year we say that Izzo and Alexander (and many, many before them) will be cut. And every year a couple make the roster at linebacker.

I agree we have 9 LB spots - probably 5 OLB and 4 ILB. We have probably 7-8 LB spots on the 44 man active roster.

Assuming Bruschi and Vrabel are back for 2009 (not definite but probable) and that AD, Mayo and Guyton are locks, that leaves us with 4 open spots. I assume Crable is a near definite lock for one of the OLB spots, leaving 3 remaining spots (2 OLB, 1 ILB).

I don't think Izzo or Alexander should be back. Izzo is aging, has never been a viable true ILB option, and at some point we will have to replace his leadership on STs. Alexander has never had much of a ceiling, and there are just too many better options.

I don't think Colvin adds anything. He was a shadow of his former self in 2008, and we only brought him in because we were decimated by injuries. I would much rather bring in a developmental player for 2009. I don't think Seau is back unless in a similar injury replacement situation (unless Bruschi retires, in which case we could bring him back in Bruschi's spot to provide veteran leadership).

I've always liked Woods, but I think that his upside is limited. I would let Woods/Redd/Robertson fight it out for 1 roster spot. If Woods gets it, then I would consider Redd/Robertson for the practice squad or potentially for the last OLB spot depending on the draft.

I would draft at least 1 and hopefully 2 1st day LB candidates - one for ILB, and one for OLB. There are at least 12 potential ILB/OLB first day candidates that I can see, so some should fall to us in the second round. None has to be an immediate impact player such as Mayo, so we can give them the luxury of developing over 1-3 years, and can even take a risk on someone with high upside.

In 2 years Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, Seau and Izzo will not even be possible considerations. Thomas will be 34 in 2 years. Mayo, Guyton and Crable should be solid, but that leaves us with 4 LBs we can count on. Wood, Redd, and Robertson may develop but I'm not sure we can count on it, and it may take time. I'd rather start investing now.

We weren't very aggressive about LB in the draft prior to last year. We could have moved back into the 2nd round in 2007 and gone after Lamar Woodley (whom I badly wanted). We could have moved up in the 3rd to go after Stuart Bradley. If we'd done either, we would be in great shape now. I hope we'll continue to be aggressive in this area after our success last year.

 

[mgteich]

The decision with regard to Woods will be made before the draft. If you are not counting on Colvin or Crable as major 2009 contributers, then Woods will need to be tendered high enough to keep as the first OLB off the bench. We need to start with a core of six, three at each position plus Crable.

For me this is all good news. We are set at linebacker for 2009, with six contributers and a developmental backup. We have two roster spots to play with. And we can choose to keep a veteran or not (Colvin, Izzo or Alexander). And we cna choose whether to bring in one or two players.

As far as Day One of the draft, I always presume that immediate roster holes will be met before the draft. I therefore expect us to sign 3-5 defensive backs before the draft, as well as a backup guard, a fullback, a wide receiver, a punter and a deep snapper.

In the first 100 picks, the patriots will have the luxury to look to picking players for the 2010 team possibly at CB, S, DL, LB, OG, OT, TE or even WR. Is linebacker the highest priority even for 2010? Not if we don't re-sign or extend Mankins, Neal, Kaczur, Seymour, Wilfork, Green, Wright, or Hobbs. Even Watson and Thomas are in their contract year.

For me, the 2010 need is greatest at CB, DL, S and OG. Linebacker must be at least fourth in my priorities. However, depending on the value on the board, we could certainly draft a linebacker.

I agree we have 9 LB spots - probably 5 OLB and 4 ILB. We have probably 7-8 LB spots on the 44 man active roster.

Assuming Bruschi and Vrabel are back for 2009 (not definite but probable) and that AD, Mayo and Guyton are locks, that leaves us with 4 open spots. I assume Crable is a near definite lock for one of the OLB spots, leaving 3 remaining spots (2 OLB, 1 ILB).

I don't think Izzo or Alexander should be back. Izzo is aging, has never been a viable true ILB option, and at some point we will have to replace his leadership on STs. Alexander has never had much of a ceiling, and there are just too many better options.

I don't think Colvin adds anything. He was a shadow of his former self in 2008, and we only brought him in because we were decimated by injuries. I would much rather bring in a developmental player for 2009. I don't think Seau is back unless in a similar injury replacement situation (unless Bruschi retires, in which case we could bring him back in Bruschi's spot to provide veteran leadership).

I've always liked Woods, but I think that his upside is limited. I would let Woods/Redd/Robertson fight it out for 1 roster spot. If Woods gets it, then I would consider Redd/Robertson for the practice squad or potentially for the last OLB spot depending on the draft.

I would draft at least 1 and hopefully 2 1st day LB candidates - one for ILB, and one for OLB. There are at least 12 potential ILB/OLB first day candidates that I can see, so some should fall to us in the second round. None has to be an immediate impact player such as Mayo, so we can give them the luxury of developing over 1-3 years, and can even take a risk on someone with high upside.

In 2 years Bruschi, Vrabel, Colvin, Seau and Izzo will not even be possible considerations. Thomas will be 34 in 2 years. Mayo, Guyton and Crable should be solid, but that leaves us with 4 LBs we can count on. Wood, Redd, and Robertson may develop but I'm not sure we can count on it, and it may take time. I'd rather start investing now.

We weren't very aggressive about LB in the draft prior to last year. We could have moved back into the 2nd round in 2007 and gone after Lamar Woodley (whom I badly wanted). We could have moved up in the 3rd to go after Stuart Bradley. If we'd done either, we would be in great shape now. I hope we'll continue to be aggressive in this area after our success last year.

 

[mayoclinic]

For me this is all good news. We are set at linebacker for 2009, with six contributers and a developmental backup. We have two roster spots to play with. And we can choose to keep a veteran or not (Colvin, Izzo or Alexander). And we cna choose whether to bring in one or two players.

I would agree with that. I'm more hopeful than you that we will be aggressive about bringing in young talent to build for the future and bolster the pass rush, but overall we agree.

As far as Day One of the draft, I always presume that immediate roster holes will be met before the draft. I therefore expect us to sign 3-5 defensive backs before the draft, as well as a backup guard, a fullback, a wide receiver, a punter and a deep snapper.

I agree as well that we will try to address immediate roster holes before the draft. We don't like to go into the draft with gaping holes if at all possible, and plugging immediate holes frees us up to be creative. If your 3-5 DBs includes resigning our own FAs (Harrison, Sanders, Tank Williams) or replacing them then I would agree with that number. I'd like to see us at least sign/resign 2 safetys and 1 FA CB. I would also like to see us sign at least one FA OL (not including resigning our own players); signing an OT would also help OG in that Kaczur could back up both positions. I do not think fullback, punter or deep snapper are priorities in FA. I would like to see us resign Gaffney and/or sign a WR/TE in FA, but that is by far my third priority.

In the first 100 picks, the patriots will have the luxury to look to picking players for the 2010 team possibly at CB, S, DL, LB, OG, OT, TE or even WR. Is linebacker the highest priority even for 2010? Not if we don't re-sign or extend Mankins, Neal, Kaczur, Seymour, Wilfork, Green, Wright, or Hobbs. Even Watson and Thomas are in their contract year.

For me, the 2010 need is greatest at CB, DL, S and OG. Linebacker must be at least fourth in my priorities. However, depending on the value on the board, we could certainly draft a linebacker.

A lot will depend on who we can resign/extend/sign in FA. I'm hopeful that we can keep our core OL/DL intact going into the draft. If that is the case, then I would focus on the defense this year. But right now it's a crapshoot as to where our biggest needs will be.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, I include re-signs when I count free agent signings. I expect us to re-sign three of Harrison, Williams, L. Sanders and J. Sanders. I don't count the re-signings of ERFA Ventrone and RFA Woods. I consider those as givens.

Yes, our core DL and OL will be kept intact going into the draft. The issue is not in 2009; it is 2010. Of our 15 DL/OL players, only backups Hochstein, Britt and Wright are free agents. We already have O'Callaghan on the roster to replace Britt.

I would agree with that. I'm more hopeful than you that we will be aggressive about bringing in young talent to build for the future and bolster the pass rush, but overall we agree.

I agree as well that we will try to address immediate roster holes before the draft. We don't like to go into the draft with gaping holes if at all possible, and plugging immediate holes frees us up to be creative. If your 3-5 DBs includes resigning our own FAs (Harrison, Sanders, Tank Williams) or replacing them then I would agree with that number. I'd like to see us at least sign/resign 2 safetys and 1 FA CB. I would also like to see us sign at least one FA OL (not including resigning our own players); signing an OT would also help OG in that Kaczur could back up both positions. I do not think fullback, punter or deep snapper are priorities in FA. I would like to see us resign Gaffney and/or sign a WR/TE in FA, but that is by far my third priority.



A lot will depend on who we can resign/extend/sign in FA. I'm hopeful that we can keep our core OL/DL intact going into the draft. If that is the case, then I would focus on the defense this year. But right now it's a crapshoot as to where our biggest needs will be.

 

[RayClay]

When we're counting undrafted free agents with a few snaps as "locks" that tells me all I need to know. Sure we have a limited amount of spots. The problem is, we have a limited amount of talent and haven't replaced but one spot likely to be on the team in 2-5 years.

I don't think there's a law against using a player with the talent to be an eventual starter on special teams for a couple years.

Wishful thinking won't get it done.