Front Seven Going Into The Draft

[UofApatsfan]

I agree with unoriginal that another Cunningham-type OLB would be ideal to supplant TBC, who is pedestrian at best and isn't a great pass rusher, despite his billing as a pass-rush specialist.

Agreed, we'll know we are completely set at linebacker once TBC never sees the field anymore.

 

[cstjohn17]

Agreed, we'll know we are completely set at linebacker once TBC never sees the field anymore.

For the record, I didn't go out and create a new account just to post this under a different name but... those are my thoughts exactly.

 

[Wilfork#75]

The question becomes, when DO you see such a guy being available? 2012? 2013? It's already been 3 drafts without a guy (other than Odrick) who really even comes close. How much longer do we wait? This draft offers at least several legit candidates.

Personally, I'll take Heyward's "apparent" inconsistency (which is overblown, I think), size and skillset over most of the rest of these guys. Crick might be a second possibility. Watt definitely has the size, but he's really raw. Most of the rest of the likely 1st/2nd round possibilities are just, size-wise, too much like guys we already have on the roster who are doing okay.

How long have we been asking this question about OLB. What we do know is that BB isnt willing to compromise his system and settle for a player with high picks. If the guy isnt a great fit he wont draft them, especially when the need at DE isnt that big. The DL now is very solid, so the only upgrade you can get is if you get a stud at DE. While there are a lot of DL in this draft, most of them only project to be solid starting DE, not big time playmakers. So if you are only getting a solid contributor at DE how much of an upgrade is it for a 1st round pick. Just like with OLB I think BB will wait for the right guy to enter the draft and go get him, not settle for whats available.

Cameron Hayward is very talented, there is no doubt. But the problem is while his ceiling may be Richard Seymour, his floor is Vernon Gholston, and he is much more likely to be Gholston than Seymour. I dont know how you cant be a little concerned that he hasnt shown up all season and waits until the bowl game to make an impact. People criticize players about being one year wonders, yet Hayward was a 2nd round prospect until the Bowl game and now he's a mid 1st rounder. I just cant justify taking such a risk on the guy. Especially because this isnt just a new issue with him, last season there where question marks about his consistency and motivation. It's been really disapointing to see he hasnt stepped up this season because I really want to like him because the talent is there, but 1 game cant make up for the rest of the season.

In terms of the other guys you mentioned, Crick likely wont declare and will try to rebuild his stock with another season at Nebraska. He's a 3rd or 4th round pick at the moment after showing he's not the same player without Suh next to him. Another guy that I was really disapointed in this season. Watt is another guy that I personally think is overated and not a great fit for the two gap system. There are no guys that dont have major question marks that I would be comfotable picking in the first round.

The only guy I do like is Muhammed Wilkerson but I think his stock will rise into the first round and will probably be picked in the early 20's. Which means it would probably take the #17 pick to get him, which im not comfortable doing.

 

[Metaphors]

The only guy I do like is Muhammed Wilkerson but I think his stock will rise into the first round and will probably be picked in the early 20's. Which means it would probably take the #17 pick to get him, which im not comfortable doing.

I have to admit I didn't see any Temple games, but from what I've seen of Wilkerson, he seems to be more of a penetrating 4-3 DT. Good lateral motion and ability to disengage from blocks, but he didn't seem like the type to eat up blocks and maintain the LOS. With such a limited same size (for me at least), it is hard to tell.

With Fairley and Dareus gone early, I still think there are a couple of options at 3-4 DE that are interesting. Jarvis Jenkins is a human roadblock and is difficult to move off the spot. Christian Ballard has good functional strength and long arms to disrupt the pocket in the passing game. I would lean toward Ballard because he is technically sound and disciplined in his approach (these guys who dive into gaps with their hair on fire would drive Belichick crazy). If he were 15 pounds heavier he might be ideal.

As for 3-4 rush linebacker, there are a boatload of options in the top 40-50. Bowers, Quinn, Aldon Smith, Kerrigan, Clayborn (minus some weight), Beal...hard to see the Pats not grabbing one of these guys. If the Pats stick at 17, that would be the sweet spot for Smith and Kerrigan.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I have to admit I didn't see any Temple games, but from what I've seen of Wilkerson, he seems to be more of a penetrating 4-3 DT. Good lateral motion and ability to disengage from blocks, but he didn't seem like the type to eat up blocks and maintain the LOS. With such a limited same size (for me at least), it is hard to tell.

With Fairley and Dareus gone early, I still think there are a couple of options at 3-4 DE that are interesting. Jarvis Jenkins is a human roadblock and is difficult to move off the spot. Christian Ballard has good functional strength and long arms to disrupt the pocket in the passing game. I would lean toward Ballard because he is technically sound and disciplined in his approach (these guys who dive into gaps with their hair on fire would drive Belichick crazy). If he were 15 pounds heavier he might be ideal.

As for 3-4 rush linebacker, there are a boatload of options in the top 40-50. Bowers, Quinn, Aldon Smith, Kerrigan, Clayborn (minus some weight), Beal...hard to see the Pats not grabbing one of these guys. If the Pats stick at 17, that would be the sweet spot for Smith and Kerrigan.

Thanks for the analysis Metaphors. I appreciate your and others (Jays52, etc) analysis more than most of the national draftniks as you understand the needs of NEP system. As for your last paragraph - as was just pointed out yesterday by a poster -there are something like six 3-4 teams picking between our 17th pick and our next pick at (hopefully) 32. So while I love Bill's VALUE draft approach, this is one year that I hope we stick at pick 17 and get the best defensive front 7 player available - hopefully a good 5 tech DE or a 3 down OLB.

I slightly favor a 3 down OLB as:
a) much more depth at DE on Pats than OLB (looking at 2011 with Ty Warren back and an improved Brace. Also with the '2nd year biggest jump in performance' in mind - hopefully one of Love, Deaderick can be more effective. Also considering that we are in a base 3-4 defense less than 50% of the time the last couple of years

b) I believe TBC is in his 9th year and has gotten everything possible (ceiling maxed) of of his 7th round draft pick athleticism. Nicko was a good suprise this year but again as another UFA type player - do we really want to stock this OLB position with UFA's and late round players on their downside? In Bill's 3-4 system, aren't the OLB's supposed to be making the big plays (while the DL eat up the blocks)?

c) Injury bug. Lucky that it has hit the DL position (where we have decent depth) instead of the OLB position. Can you imagine what players would be in at OLB if we had 3 players on IR like our DE's have? That thought is just too scary to contemplate.

d) pick 17. Usually at that spot you won't get the top 1-4 DL's as they are gone by then. However, the top OLB usually start going off the board later than the top DL's, which means at 17 there is a good shot at one of the top 3 OLB's. So I would say - get the 2nd best OLB rather than the 5th best DL at pick 17 - ceteris paribus. (assuming obviously both of those draftees fit our system).

 

[MaineMan]

How long have we been asking this question about OLB. What we do know is that BB isnt willing to compromise his system and settle for a player with high picks. If the guy isnt a great fit he wont draft them, especially when the need at DE isnt that big. The DL now is very solid, so the only upgrade you can get is if you get a stud at DE. While there are a lot of DL in this draft, most of them only project to be solid starting DE, not big time playmakers. So if you are only getting a solid contributor at DE how much of an upgrade is it for a 1st round pick. Just like with OLB I think BB will wait for the right guy to enter the draft and go get him, not settle for whats available.

Cameron Hayward is very talented, there is no doubt. But the problem is while his ceiling may be Richard Seymour, his floor is Vernon Gholston, and he is much more likely to be Gholston than Seymour. I dont know how you cant be a little concerned that he hasnt shown up all season and waits until the bowl game to make an impact. People criticize players about being one year wonders, yet Hayward was a 2nd round prospect until the Bowl game and now he's a mid 1st rounder. I just cant justify taking such a risk on the guy. Especially because this isnt just a new issue with him, last season there where question marks about his consistency and motivation. It's been really disapointing to see he hasnt stepped up this season because I really want to like him because the talent is there, but 1 game cant make up for the rest of the season.

In terms of the other guys you mentioned, Crick likely wont declare and will try to rebuild his stock with another season at Nebraska. He's a 3rd or 4th round pick at the moment after showing he's not the same player without Suh next to him. Another guy that I was really disapointed in this season. Watt is another guy that I personally think is overated and not a great fit for the two gap system. There are no guys that dont have major question marks that I would be comfotable picking in the first round.

The only guy I do like is Muhammed Wilkerson but I think his stock will rise into the first round and will probably be picked in the early 20's. Which means it would probably take the #17 pick to get him, which im not comfortable doing.

You make several fair points.

However, I don't think BB taking any of these guys would necessarily be a matter of "settling". I'd have to guess that he's been building a library on all these guys for at least a couple of years and that we'll see their names, and a couple others we haven't even considered, pop up on Box's contact log.

While I agree that D-line play has been fairly solid this season, even (conceptually) plugging Ty Warren and Brace back into the mix, it still has the feel of a truck running on three good tires and a temporary spare, like 2007 when Seymour was out and Green filled in. My feeling is that BB sees this as a pretty big need.

Also, I'm not convinced that the comparison to OLB is entirely valid. We may have been waiting for BB to take one with a high pick, but I don't think BB has. It seems to me that the guys he actually has preferred for OLB have often been guys that the rest of the market hasn't valued very highly, so, spending a high pick has never seemed necessary. OTOH, especially now with so many other teams running some version of a 3-4, guys who BB would prefer for DE in his 3-4 are highly sought after and, thus, really only available early.

Which is why I agree that Wilkerson. who I also really like (as a second-rounder), will probably end up being a first-rounder by draft day, unfortunately.

Too bad that Crick is leaning away from declaring. Of all the juniors, he seemed to me to be among the best potential fits with a lot if upside. That his effectiveness is down with Suh gone shouldn't be a huge surprise. Whose wouldn't be? Doesn't necessarily mean he's not still a very good player just because he's now getting all the attention from opponents (though I'm also not claiming that's the only reason for his relatively "down" year). Third/fourth round, though, seems like more of a penalty than the market would actually impose. OTOH, he probably does have a better chance of going higher in 2012 rather than in this crowded field.

Watt seems so raw and plays so wildly that I'm not sure I can say for certain whether he does or doesn't fit any system. It does seem like he's been asked to do a lot of things at Wisconsin that wouldn't be required of him as a 3-4 DE in BB's system, but he's still a project. He was a binkie when it still looked like he'd be a late-2nd/3rd rounder, but, yeah, I don't see BB taking him in the first, much less at #17.

I get what you're saying about Heyward's inconsistency and I realize that it's more than merely opponents paying more attention to him. It's apparently a widespread significant concern since his stock didn't get much of a bump from his bowl performance and a few boards actually have him dropping into the late 20s now. I can only guess that BB's decision on him would be decided in his interview (which I think Heyward will get).

So, bottom line for me is that I believe BB sees 3-4 DE as a major need and that he's not necessarily seeking "perfection" in the first round, just a guy who's solid, has some significant upside and is more suitable for the role than the guys who are currently on the roster. The unusual volume of DEs in this class (note that I'm deliberately avoiding the word "depth" and it's quality implications), is pushing several prospects down to where we have picks to play with and that's really what I think BB has been "waiting for" and why he took the 2011 pick for Seymour over a 2010 pick. At this point, it doesn't appear that 2012 will offer anywhere near the same opportunities.

 

[cstjohn17]

Track record with first round picks (last nine years)
National Football League: NFL Draft History - by Team

Pro Bowl players - 6 - McCourty, Mayo, Merriweather, Mankins, Wilfork, Seymour
Very solid players - 2 - Warren, Daniel Graham
Busts 1 - Maroney

Most of the picks leaned towards BPA instead of need but there always is some overlap.

If the defensive line can hold up against the Jets, Steelers/Ravens it is pretty obvious that although Vince is the only big name the rest of the 'No Name and Rejects' are good enough. If the fail then DL moves up in the priority list. Realistically the Patriots are without their #2 DL (Warren), #3 DL (Wright) and #5 DL (Brace). They are pretty much scrapping the barrel but still seem to be doing ok.

I don't think any successful team can draft on need, a good roster will have most spots relatively complete and then fill in depth / competition with draft picks. I expect the Pats to do the same this year, but really I have no idea.

 

[satz]

I think grouping players from different rolls into one is bad!

DLine

3-4 ENDS
Ty , Brace ,Warren -Big 330LB / above 6 3 guy [Sometime doubled by OL]

NT
Vince ,Kyle - Short and Stout [teapot guys] [Always doubled by OL]

Interior Rushers
Wright ,Pyor ,Deadrick [ 300LB Faster tackles - Mostly singled by OL ]

Need

A starting 3-4END with brace and warren in rotation
NT - Competition to Kyle
Interior - Competition for wright and deadrick


OLB

Rush Ends - Eric Moore,Tully - thrid down rusher
2 Down coverage OLB - Ninkovich,Flecter [I know he is ILB but he did play play here]
3 Down - Cunningham - He is strong enough to play both

Need - Specialist

Top need Rush end- a thrid down get after the QB guy
Heavier bigger DE at 270 for teams like ravens who pound . He is the elephant OLB for that roll alone.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Considering that Wright, Warren, Brace Richard, Weston and Pryor all currently are on IR or have missed games with injuries, I don't see how D line can not be our #1 concern.

We are one injury to Wilfork away from being a 2 - 5 -4 defense and quickly eliminated from the playoffs..

I think resigning G Warren is a huge priority, although I don;t think he has played all that well.

After Dareus there is not much left at the 3-4 DE position that can contribute early for us next season. However there may be some day two or day three of the draft projections that BB could coach up and have ready for us later next season.

I still think if Kerrigan is available at #17, highly likely he will be off the board by then however, but if not then we need to take him. He brings a pass rush demon attitude but is big and strong enough to set the edge against the run.

 

[mgteich]

You're correct. We have some of Warren, Wright, Brace, Weston, and Richard coming back from IR. You view this as a negative. I don't. Presuming that we re-sign G. Warren, we have the current DL continuing into 2011: Wilfork, Warren, Pryor, Love and Deaderick. Plus we will some production from the FIVE players returning from IR. I expect TWO of Warren, Brace and Wright to return to give uis a solid SEVEN man line.

WHY IS THIS A NEGATIVE? I agree with drafting an upgrade with our first pick. However, how can this possibily be our #1 "need".
=========================

On the other hand consider the OL,.

Light - unsigned
Mankins - unsigned
Koppen - in his contract year
Neal/Connolly - two men sharing one roster spot
Vollmer - the one lineman we can count on long-term.

Are you counting on Wendell, Ohnberger, Bussey and the re-signing of Ojinnaka to save the day?
========================

BOTTOM LINE - WITHOUT ADDITIONS OR RE-SIGNINGS

DL: Our current 5 man rotation is coming back with five potential contributers under contract ot ERFA's. With ZERO additions, our 2011 DL is likely to be quite good, likely at least as good as in 2010.

OL: Vollmer and Connolly will be back, with possible contributions from Neal and Kaczur.

Considering that Wright, Warren, Brace Richard, Weston and Pryor all currently are on IR or have missed games with injuries, I don't see how D line can not be our #1 concern.

We are one injury to Wilfork away from being a 2 - 5 -4 defense and quickly eliminated from the playoffs..

I think resigning G Warren is a huge priority, although I don;t think he has played all that well.

After Dareus there is not much left at the 3-4 DE position that can contribute early for us next season. However there may be some day two or day three of the draft projections that BB could coach up and have ready for us later next season.

I still think if Kerrigan is available at #17, highly likely he will be off the board by then however, but if not then we need to take him. He brings a pass rush demon attitude but is big and strong enough to set the edge against the run.

 

[MustaphaM0nd]

Considering that Wright, Warren, Brace Richard, Weston and Pryor all currently are on IR or have missed games with injuries, I don't see how D line can not be our #1 concern.

We are one injury to Wilfork away from being a 2 - 5 -4 defense and quickly eliminated from the playoffs..

I think resigning G Warren is a huge priority, although I don;t think he has played all that well.

After Dareus there is not much left at the 3-4 DE position that can contribute early for us next season. However there may be some day two or day three of the draft projections that BB could coach up and have ready for us later next season.

I still think if Kerrigan is available at #17, highly likely he will be off the board by then however, but if not then we need to take him. He brings a pass rush demon attitude but is big and strong enough to set the edge against the run.

Well said. Looking at this year, Ty Warren and Ron Brace are natural fits at LDE and should stick around. However, we need an athlete who can hold down RDE in the 3-4. Pryor and G. Warren are best used as sub players. Deaderick clearly has issues so not much can be expected of him. Love has been ho-hum. Wright might never play football again.

The big wildcard to me is Kade Weston. He's a big underachiever, but if his potential is realized he could stick around as a run stuffer. Not much potential as a pass rusher but if he can play with good leverage and eat up blockers thats enough for me.

We're gonna get another outside linebacker as well, to platoon with Ninkovich and Cunningham on early downs.

 

[cstjohn17]

I still think if Kerrigan is available at #17, highly likely he will be off the board by then however, but if not then we need to take him. He brings a pass rush demon attitude but is big and strong enough to set the edge against the run.

I have named him Connor Kerrigan, he is perfect for the Patriots, big, slow but productive. Looking at the top defenses, Ravens, Pittsburg, Jets, aptriots, etc. they all have big front sevens not necessarily fast.

 

[Metaphors]

On the other hand consider the OL,.

Light - unsigned
Mankins - unsigned
Koppen - in his contract year
Neal/Connolly - two men sharing one roster spot
Vollmer - the one lineman we can count on long-term.

Are you counting on Wendell, Ohnberger, Bussey and the re-signing of Ojinnaka to save the day?

Couple of points here. You need to distinguish between what could happen and what is likely to happen. The OL could be a complete disaster next year if nothing is done. However, the Pats have all the information and contract/cap flexibility they need to make sure it doesn't.

The Pats know about their injury (Neal, Kaczur, Bussey) and retirement (Light, Neal, Koppen) situations, at least to the degree that it is possible. So while it is not a certainty, it is a reasonable assumption to say they will all be relatively healthy and wanting to play.

As for the contract situations for Light and Mankins, the Pats have greater control than your "unsigned" designation would indicate. Light is nearing the end of his career and it is unlikely he wants to go elsewhere. The Pats (with likely strong urgings from Brady) are likely to find a middle ground to keep him here and happy for another year or two. Classic situation where both parties have tons of motivation to come together on a deal.

Not so for Mankins. However, the Pats have no other priority free agents next year. It is extremely unlikely that the Pats let Mankins walk away for nothing when they have a franchise tag (almost certainly to be in the next CBA) to prevent it. Mankins could stay home, but he already tried that and it got him nowhere. Once the new cap is established, it is also possible that the Pats could get Mankins signed to a long-term deal. Mankins came back this year and has been a complete monster...which you would think is making a positive impression on Belichick. Not an $8.5M per year impression, but a positive one.

While it is a bit silly to expect Wendell, Ohrnberger, Bussey, Levoir and Ojinnaka to all be rotation guys next year, it is equally silly to expect none of them to. Wendell has already graduated from camp Scar and Ohrnberger/Ojinnaka have certainly made positive impressions to hold their spots on the depth chart. Only Levoir (heading the wrong direction on the depth chart) and Bussey (injuries) have an uphill battle ahead of them.

It is not unreasonable to think that 10 OL candidates could return next year...including the current starters, both IR guys and the top backups. Just like your description of the DL, I don't think this qualifies as a "need" area when discussing the draft. If the draft doesn't fall right, I could see OL or DL being ignored. Extremely unlikely, but it just reinforces the fact that the Pats are in the catbird's seat in April.

 

[mgteich]

I guess I just need to order a pair of your rose-colored glasses. It's been awhile since I have disagreed as much with a posted analysis.

In order for you to say that there no need at OL, you have all the following happening
1) Re-signing Light to a 1 or 2 year contract.
2) Franchising Mankins and expecting him to play.
3) "Reasonbaly assuming that Neal and Kaczur will come back relatively healthy and ready to play.
4) that one of the bench sitters should be counted on as a starter (perhaps at center).
============

What I do agree withn is that if all these things do indeed happen, there will be no "need" at the time fo the draft and that Belichick might ignore the OL if no opportunity arises.

Couple of points here. You need to distinguish between what could happen and what is likely to happen. The OL could be a complete disaster next year if nothing is done. However, the Pats have all the information and contract/cap flexibility they need to make sure it doesn't.

The Pats know about their injury (Neal, Kaczur, Bussey) and retirement (Light, Neal, Koppen) situations, at least to the degree that it is possible. So while it is not a certainty, it is a reasonable assumption to say they will all be relatively healthy and wanting to play.

As for the contract situations for Light and Mankins, the Pats have greater control than your "unsigned" designation would indicate. Light is nearing the end of his career and it is unlikely he wants to go elsewhere. The Pats (with likely strong urgings from Brady) are likely to find a middle ground to keep him here and happy for another year or two. Classic situation where both parties have tons of motivation to come together on a deal.

Not so for Mankins. However, the Pats have no other priority free agents next year. It is extremely unlikely that the Pats let Mankins walk away for nothing when they have a franchise tag (almost certainly to be in the next CBA) to prevent it. Mankins could stay home, but he already tried that and it got him nowhere. Once the new cap is established, it is also possible that the Pats could get Mankins signed to a long-term deal. Mankins came back this year and has been a complete monster...which you would think is making a positive impression on Belichick. Not an $8.5M per year impression, but a positive one.

While it is a bit silly to expect Wendell, Ohrnberger, Bussey, Levoir and Ojinnaka to all be rotation guys next year, it is equally silly to expect none of them to. Wendell has already graduated from camp Scar and Ohrnberger/Ojinnaka have certainly made positive impressions to hold their spots on the depth chart. Only Levoir (heading the wrong direction on the depth chart) and Bussey (injuries) have an uphill battle ahead of them.

It is not unreasonable to think that 10 OL candidates could return next year...including the current starters, both IR guys and the top backups. Just like your description of the DL, I don't think this qualifies as a "need" area when discussing the draft. If the draft doesn't fall right, I could see OL or DL being ignored. Extremely unlikely, but it just reinforces the fact that the Pats are in the catbird's seat in April.

 

[Metaphors]

In order for you to say that there no need at OL,

Well first off, there aren't any positions that have NO need. I'm really speaking from the perspective where the status quo is not viable or even desirable. With that in mind, taking your points one at a time:

you have all the following happening
1) Re-signing Light to a 1 or 2 year contract.

What is the alternative? Light retires? Doubtful. Signs somewhere else? Possible but only if he gets a huge offer somewhere else (unlikely) or the Pats don't make him a realistic offer (also unlikely).

2) Franchising Mankins and expecting him to play.

Again, alternative? Letting Mankins walk without compensation? No way. Mankins staying home based on principle and ending up in the same situation just one year older? He didn't do it this year (even came back early) so can't see him doing it next year. Another team offering the Pats a 1st round pick and paying Mankins $8.5M a year? Possible but not seeing it.

3) "Reasonbaly assuming that Neal and Kaczur will come back relatively healthy and ready to play.

Kaczur has been out all year so unless so unless something was amputated, he is a good bet. Neal is more sketchy but shoulder injuries are less frustrating in rehab than leg injuries.

4) that one of the bench sitters should be counted on as a starter (perhaps at center).

Already have Connolly and Wendell who have starting experience.

Here is the bottom line for me. If the OL in this draft class get overdrafted and suck the value from those positions for the draft, I don't think the Pats will reach or trade up. The Colts will draft OL with an early pick. The Texans will do the same with DBs. Those are needs. The Pats OL? Not so much.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

While there is no doubt another Warren or Seymour would be great for this team, I just dont see that player in this draft. The Patriots have such a complex system that most college DL simply dont fit. The best fit scheme wise is probably Cameron Hayward, but I wouldn't touch him anywhere in the first round because he hasn't shown any consistency. Then you have guys like JJ Watt who I dont see as a great fit, and who will probably be overdrafted well ahead of 17 anyway. The only guy I would be comfotable taking in the top 20 picks is Nick Fairley and he will be well gone. So who is the guy to take? Do you reach for Cam Jordan? While the idea of a great DE seems intriguing, in practice I just dont see the next Richard Seymour or Ty Warren in this draft.

My top rated DE behind Fairley is Muhammed Wilkerson from Temple and I have him as a mid second round prospect. He seems by far the best fit at DE and solid value in the early/mid second round. However, like most 5-techs his stock will probably rise to a point where he doesnt offer much value. So while in theory a stud DE may be a great idea, im struggling to find that guy, and im not willing to reach or compromise the requirements of the system to get them.

I watched Wilkerson in one game the previous season and caught him twice this season, the latter two while Temple was battling Ohio and Miami for MAC East, so decent competition. reamer used my impression of him as a blend of Ty Warren's strength/stoutness with Mike Wright's penetrating/disruptiveness. Out of Seymour, Warren, and Wilfork, only Wilfork was a considered a no-brainer pick, yet the first two turned out okay and I think Wilkerson in the late first/early second is excellent value; if he interviews well he may even grow into the Oakland pick.

Early in the season I saw Watt and wrote he looked too raw and should plan to stay his senior season. Later in the season I was impressed with how much better he looked, to the point I no longer believe he's taking an ill-advised risk coming out early. He's still raw, but he had the work ethic and intelligence to take his game up a couple levels over the course of this season. He needs to be stronger, needs to develop technique and an awareness of what the offense is trying to do to handle him, he'll need work on assignments and reads, but I also like him late first/early second. Watt has athletic tools which, as long as he works at his craft, would give NE some interesting opportunities, including some OLB reps in limited packages.

For those that say that there are alot of DE's to choose from this year;

Which one is the best run defender, who would play on early downs and could play virtually the whole game against the Ravens,

And which one is the best for defending pass plays??

And could they both be picked up within the first 2 rounds??,
the first 100 picks??

Ranking the top of the DL draft list as I see it:

1. Fairley - I'm actually cooling on him a little, but he's got the tool set if the mental/emotional side of the game doesn't get away from him. He's been strongest shooting the gap to disrupt pass plays, but if he's willing to work, he could do it all.
2. Dareus/Paea - two entirely different players, but guys who have some flexibility for NE's many packages and who could be blended around the returning core of Wilfork/Ty Warren to do some fun things for opponents (the where's Wilfork game for instance). Dareus is well-rounded, Paea is stronger against the run.
3. Wilkerson - see above. Well-rounded.
4. Watt - see above. For now, he's better against the pass, but I believe he could do it all.
5. Jenkins - I thought he looked decent playing inside for Clemson. I've still got their bowl game to watch and I expect him in an All-Star game for another look before I finalize things. More of a run stuffer.

Cory Liuget declared and luckily I still have his bowl game to watch, some have speculated that he could be in consideration.

Heyward, Jordan, Clayborn, Bailey, Ballard, Taylor, and Austin didn't get it done on the field for me.

Finally, Jerrell Powe is out of condition and he needs to get stronger now that he's dropped a lot of weight. He reminds me of Brace coming out of BC, size & untapped potential - maybe Self-Help Guru Vince Wilfork can inspire him the way he did big Ron. He might be a reasonable project for Coaches Woicik & Nash to develop for reserve NT if Love doesn't keep progressing.

Well said. Looking at this year, Ty Warren and Ron Brace are natural fits at LDE and should stick around. However, we need an athlete who can hold down RDE in the 3-4. Pryor and G. Warren are best used as sub players. Deaderick clearly has issues so not much can be expected of him. Love has been ho-hum. Wright might never play football again.

The big wildcard to me is Kade Weston. He's a big underachiever, but if his potential is realized he could stick around as a run stuffer. Not much potential as a pass rusher but if he can play with good leverage and eat up blockers thats enough for me.

We're gonna get another outside linebacker as well, to platoon with Ninkovich and Cunningham on early downs.

Weston being a Caribbean soccer lad who came late to the gridiron is indeed a wild card. I'll be watching him with some interest if he's still around for pre-season - I thought it was interesting to see him getting NT reps before he was waived and IR'd.

Richard made a significant jump from his rookie training camp, pity he went on IR because I had him pegged for another season on the Practice Squad with a shot to work onto the roster.

 

[Titanium Coate Hanger]

I believe, IMHO, D line is a constant reload position. Given how many pan out and how injuries take their toll ( You can't be at that weight, take that kind of punishment and not have attrition), I think good D linemen are like starting pitchers in baseball - you can never ever have enough.

I think Belichick takes BPA and trades out of this draft. It's a weak draft and plenty of new coaches/GMs on teams are looking to rebuild and will gladly trade for the picks because they have to make moves now instead of later.

If there's a rookie cap in the new CBA, the value of very high first round picks will change dramatically. Instead of trading back, you might see Belichick do more trading up. Why take a guy who might get the last wave of big rookie paydays in a weak draft when you can trade out of it? There's not enough roster space to accommodate all those draft choices anyway.

I think Belichick goes

1) Trades picks for an established player
2) Goes BPA or trades back
3) Trades a majority of the picks for a future draft, where their value means more when the CBA is resolved

 

[VJCPatriot]

ASSUMPTIONS
Re-sign Warren
Re-sign Moore
Wright is back

I'm not going to assume that Wright is back. Warren, I hope will be back, but I don't know if he'll come back 100%. In any case, Warren when fully healthy is good but not a great DE.

DL
Warren, Wilfork, Warren, Wright
Brace, Pryor, Love, Deaderick

There's no doubt this group can be improved upon. I wouldn't look for more than 1 top DE prospect. We have a lot of good backups in this group.

OLB/DE
Cunningham, Banta-Cain, Ninkovich, Moore

Yes. this is what we're working with. Can it be upgraded? Absolutely. TBC does not look like the guy the Pats expected when they gave him the multi-year deal. Ninkovich and Moore have been solid rotation players.

ILB
Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher

ILB is arguably the Pats strongest position now. Guyton and Fletcher are versatile backups. Mayo and Spikes a solid run stopping duo. This is the position least likely to be drafted imo unless we find some late round gem.

 

[DW Toys]

This is not a "need" draft for the Pats. This is an "upgrade" draft. The top picks in this draft will be moving viable starters down the depth chart or off the team. Sounds kind of cold considering the success the team has had this year, but as the Red Queen from Wonderland said:



This isn't the time for the Pats to "keep in the same place". A top-heavy draft with a handful of top picks is a prime opportunity for the team to evolve "twice as fast" as their competition.

Very good post! This is a very mediocre draft class at best with little depth. The good news is we have some top picks. I say we use some for picks....... and trades.
I have one problem with the continued trading down. You are not a guaranteed that the pick next year will make any impact and now TB is yet a year older. We have been burned by missing on a Clay Matthews, Ray Rice, Curtis Lofton etc. and our down trade philosophy.

Lets package picks and move around to set the stage now. Does anyone here care about 2015 right now? We are one or two players away from a Team that can play with anyone on any given day. I hate to say it but the Jets picked up who they wanted to get where they are now. We laughed at Cromartie, LT and Holmes, but the Jets are laughing now. You have to give them props for beating us and Peyton two weeks in a row with a fair QB.

No one says this but beating Peyton first in his house gave them hope here.
DW Toys