Football Outsiders: Run on 3rd and Short

[Ring 6]

There is more to consider than a leaguew wide average of conversions in those situations.
In addition to individual matchups, which pretty much make the league wid # useless, who is your QB?
If I call a run on 3rd and 2, I either guessed right (the run call AND where) and there is a hole, or the D defended that area of the field, and there is nothing I can do.
If I call a pass play, and put the ball in Bradys hands, if I did a bad job with the choice of play and the #1 route is covered, I have a #2, #3 etc, and my fate is in Bradys hands to decide AFTER he sees how it is defended.
If JeMarkus Sanchez is my QB, I see no value in putting that fate in his hands, so I run it. With Brady I hesitate to not have the ball in his hands to make a decision based on what the D is doing in order to make one on what I expect they will do.

 

[Ring 6]

Here is a different piece related to the Patriots, for why Law Firm may be a better RB choice than Maroney. A runner with lower variance in his runs is more valuable than a runner who is 'boom or bust'.

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