Football Outsiders Most Likely SB Scenarios At This Point

[oldrover]

Yikes, FO...

 

[DropKickFlutie]

So over a third of scenarios involve the Pats. Cool. Now execute. There are a couple ways they could tank in the playoffs so hopefully these areas don't get exposed.

 

[Triumph]

I pick NE vs GB.

Rodgers outplays Brady to win the NFCC.

 

[reflexblue]

We're on to Beeffalo

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

those are only 57.4% of the total scenarios. Pat's could be in some of the 42.6% of scenarios.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Right now it’s the Bucs that make me skeptical.

 

[Pats1971]

I pick NE vs GB.

Rodgers outplays Brady to win the NFCC.

So you are in fantasy land...

 

[DarrylS]

We're on to Beeffalo

AKA "throw the bildo on the field stadium", those fans need practice on what that is used for..

 

[Triumph]

So you are in fantasy land...

You must be a Tom Brady groupie.

 

[TB12TheGoat]

Right now it’s the Bucs that make me skeptical.

yeah I think the injuries are going to be too much this year

 

[reflexblue]

Yikes, FO...

Oh, yeah, i almost forgot......"Cricket"....... And people laughed at me when i told them i had Consumer Cellular

 

[Froob]

Taysom is basically Tebow

 

[Pats1971]

So you are in fantasy land...

No, I have watched football before.

 

[Pats1971]

yeah I think the injuries are going to be too much this year

Actually most are coming back at this point. AB comes back right before the playoffs and it could be a tough out.

 

[brdmaverick]

This is fun to see, but I feel like the KC should be getting more love from the national audience.

 

[Pats1971]

This is fun to see, but I feel like the KC should be getting more love from the national audience.

You know how media is, its the flavor of the week scenario.

 

[Rob0729]

The league desperately wants a Pats/Bucs Super Bowl. The storylines write themselves. Brady vs. Belichick. The Future vs. the Past (in terms of Patriots QBs). The first rookie QB in the Super Bowl. Gronk playing the Pats for the first time. The Bucs' high powered offense vs. the Pats' shutdown defense. It would be the most watched Super Bowl of all time.

 

[Rob0729]

You know how media is, its the flavor of the week scenario.

Football Outsiders isn't just picking teams based on how hot they are right now. They are using their DVOA analysis to simulate scenarios and listing the most likely outcomes. From their statistics, these are the most likely Super Bowl scenarios. The Pats are the highest ranked AFC team according to their DVOA stats. That is why they are getting more play than KC, not because the Pats are the flavor of the week.

You can argue against their DVOA rankings. I am not a huge fan of advance statistics myself. But to claim they are just giving more weight to the Pats because they are the flavor of the week is just ignorance to how Football Outsider does these odds. They do have a weighted DVOA that does give more weight to recent games than earlier in the season, but that is because NFL teams can be streaky and teams that come out of the gate hot and then fall apart shouldn't be ranked as high in this point in the season than a team with the same record, but came out of the gate slow and really have heated up in recent months. But that isn't flavor of the week.

 

[Rob0729]

This is fun to see, but I feel like the KC should be getting more love from the national audience.

According to Football Outsider's DVOA, the Chiefs are the third best team in the AFC after the Pats and the Bills. Hence why they have the third best odds to get into the Super Bowl from the AFC.

Plus, although the Chiefs have won four games in a row, they haven't looked like the 2020 Chiefs other than against the Raiders. And they struggled to beat the Packers without Rodgers and they beat the Cowboys without Cooper or Lamb (and people say the Pats have been lucky that every good team they faced were seriously hindered because a key player(s) was/were out of the game).

 

[seven]

BB vs Tb - Good Vs Evil.

BB vs GB? Mac and Cheese Bowl
Would be Special.
Because GB is Special. Ask them,. they tell you
Green Bay is Special.
*
Looking for a sign:
Cheese everywhere, all week, Judon, mac and cheeese

...was the yellow on the bottom of Aeron's foot
toe cheese or cheese curds?
Cheese Smack from Pioli
Players talking publicly about their pain is self-serving.
Built in excuse for failing, superhero for overcoming.
*
TB vs AR comps like:
Actual Super Hero Vs
Alt Superhero

Hey Alt Superhero, hows it going?
Oh... my toe hurts.