2024 NFL Draft Thread (Continued..)

[The Gr8est]

No offense but I’ll go with Jeremiah’s evaluation over yours. He was a scout for the Ravens , and his take on the draft, as well as Bucky Brooks have been the most reliable source for me in recent years.

And what I have seen in the discussions is that the people who have a boner for Marvison Harrison Jr. are just dismissing reports that the top 3 are really good prospects, and making the, “ they aren’t guaranteed” argument.

It looks like you are accusing people of being opposed to blindly taking a QB at #3, as having an irrational love of a WR, probably Harrison.

Maybe it’s possible that some of us understand the success rate of highly drafted QBs, and think there may be other options for building a successful team.

Sure Harrison could be a great pick, or picking a stud OT, but trading down with a desperate team for a haul is another option.

Sorry to disappoint your straw man opinion of anyone who is not solidly in your “take a QB at #3 no matter what” camp.

 

[Ross12]

If there is justice in the universe, a QB named Rattler, HAS to be a success.

People generally don’t love Rattler but I think he’s a nice mid round pick. He has a lot of experience, great arm, stout, and seems to be mature. Some areas to work on but has the tools to be solid.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

When's the last time we looked forward to a draft like this one? Gonna be super interesting and a lot of disappointed posters, some happy too.

 

[Wilfork#75]

If Bears can get 2 #1's for moving down, what can we get for our #3 pick?

If we can get a mid AND a lower 1st rounder - we absolutely have to. We need to NAIL our first 3 rounds.
I mean, like get 3 surefire starters (out of 4 or 5 picks) for THIS year. And it doesn't have to be a QB.
If we end up with a franchise LT, a WR1 or WR2, a difference maker TE or DB or RB... that's a win.

Neither of the top 3 QB's are going to be winning their first year whether Chi, Was, AZ, NYG...
And certainly not with the the Pats.

Obviously you need 2 teams to make a trade, and while MHJ might get a few more teams interested in #3 I think it’s the QB needy teams most likely to make the trade up (NYG, ATL and DEN).

I think the best trade partner would be NYG at 6. Daboll needs to do something to save his job and a promising rookie QB might give him a bit more time. Daniel Jones certainly won’t. At #6 we would still be well within Joe Alt range.

So what does a trade back from 3 to 6 look like? For these I like to look at previous trades and see if there is anything comparable. Luckily there is a trade from 2018 that is eerily similar. Back then it was another NY team, the Jets, moving up from 6 to 3 to draft Sam Darnold. To move up those 3 spots the Jets gave up 3 second round picks.

2018
Colts Trade 1(3)

Jets Trade 1(6) + 2(37) + 2(49) + future 2nd

Luckily, the Giants, like the Jets in 2018, have an additional 2nd round pick this year that matches up very similarly to 2018. That would be the precedent I would use and my starting point for a trade back with the Giants.

Pats trade 1(3)

NYG trade 1(6) + 2(39) + 2(47) + 2025 2nd

With 4 top 50 picks I would try and be really aggressive to trade up. We could walk out the first round bookend OT’s and a stud WR.

 

[Headcase]

Pats trade 1(3)

NYG trade 1(6) + 2(39) + 2(47) + 2025 2nd

With 4 top 50 picks I would try and be really aggressive to trade up. We could walk out the first round bookend OT’s and a stud WR.

I've posted this a bunch of places NYG is my favorite trade down target, and that was before I realized they had an additional 2nd this year.

This is my dream draft.

 

[The Gr8est]

Obviously you need 2 teams to make a trade, and while MHJ might get a few more teams interested in #3 I think it’s the QB needy teams most likely to make the trade up (NYG, ATL and DEN).

I think the best trade partner would be NYG at 6. Daboll needs to do something to save his job and a promising rookie QB might give him a bit more time. Daniel Jones certainly won’t. At #6 we would still be well within Joe Alt range.

So what does a trade back from 3 to 6 look like? For these I like to look at previous trades and see if there is anything comparable. Luckily there is a trade from 2018 that is eerily similar. Back then it was another NY team, the Jets, moving up from 6 to 3 to draft Sam Darnold. To move up those 3 spots the Jets gave up 3 second round picks.

2018
Colts Trade 1(3)

Jets Trade 1(6) + 2(37) + 2(49) + future 2nd

Luckily, the Giants, like the Jets in 2018, have an additional 2nd round pick this year that matches up very similarly to 2018. That would be the precedent I would use and my starting point for a trade back with the Giants.

Pats trade 1(3)

NYG trade 1(6) + 2(39) + 2(47) + 2025 2nd

With 4 top 50 picks I would try and be really aggressive to trade up. We could walk out the first round bookend OT’s and a stud WR.

Someone posted a list of recent trade ups, and the bounties have been going up every year.

The return that you suggest may be low.

How about instead of the Giants #2 next year, make it their #1?

 

[Ivan]

It looks like you are accusing people of being opposed to blindly taking a QB at #3, as having an irrational love of a WR, probably Harrison.

Maybe it’s possible that some of us understand the success rate of highly drafted QBs, and think there may be other options for building a successful team.

Sure Harrison could be a great pick, or picking a stud OT, but trading down with a desperate team for a haul is another option.

Sorry to disappoint your straw man opinion of anyone who is not solidly in your “take a QB at #3 no matter what” camp.

Pretty much. If there were serious questions about any of the top 3 QB’s, and people were using those questions to make a case against taking one then I would pay some attention to any valid argument, but so far no one has offered one, instead we get” there’s no guarantee,” or “ I have seen enough footage of them,” or “ they can build around a WR,” …..But none of those are actual arguments against fixing the most important need on the team with their pick. When ai asked Vrabel Jr. to support his claim that they are all “ 2nd round picks” he just dismissed it by saying. He had seen enough of them ….., which I honestly don’t buy, because I don’t believe he has spent hours dissecting their game tapes, and he didn’t name any specific things he had seen to make him reach that conclusion. and the people who actually have done that believe they are well worth their rankings. And your statement that “ they aren’t guarantees applies to every pick in the draft, which means it isn’t any argument at all as t doesn’t make any distinction between them and any other players. And when I asked Patsfan2 to support his claim that you can build around a WR with an example of a team doing that he just never responded to it, and that’s because it doesn’t happen. When the Jones, Lance , Wilson class came out people made valid arguments against them, such as Jones not having an NFL caliber arm, and Wilson and Lance not playing against top competiiion, or not having the experience necessary. Even when Josh Allen came out people were making the argument that he was so wildly inaccurate that he would not make it in the NFL. But at least the people making the arguments were making serious points to make their arguments against those players, but so far none of you have actually done that, instead you are just dismissing the players because you just want the WR, when the truth is that no one has built a championship team around a WR, and when one person to used Calvin Johnson as their argument I had to remind them that neither Johnson, Moss, or claret Fitzgerald ever won a ring.

So if anyone wants to make an actual argument as to why they should ignore addressing the most important position on the team with a top 3 player then by all means do so, but so far no one has, and you shouldn’t expect others to buy your argument when you aren’t really making one. If you want you can simply say “ I just want a WR,” because that’s really all you are saying anyways.

3 of the top 4 rated players in this draft are QB’s. The Patriots have the 3rd overall pick in the draft, so they actually are guaranteed to get one of them. The Patriots have the worst QB’s in football, and that led to the worst offense in football, which makes QB their biggest need . The AFC is a very strong conference right now, and all of their competition for playoff spots have starting QB’s who were taken in the first round and then built around to reach contender status. The teams with mediocre to **** QB’s aren’t in the discussion, and one with really good QB has been so poorly coached that they haven’t made the playoffs, the Chargers, but I bet they will this season with Harbaugh, and they have Herbert, another top 10 pick.

K.C. Mahomes top 10 pick

Buffalo Allen Top 10 pick

Miami Tua Top 10 pick

Baltimore Jackson 1st round pick

Texas Stroud 2nd pick

Jacksonville Lawrence 1st overall

Cincy Burrows 1st overall

Cleveland Watson 1st round pick

Jacksonville Lawrence 1st pick overall

Pittsburgh is the only one of the playoff teams in the AFC the past two seasons that didn’t have a 1st round QB as their starter, and most were top 10 picks

Additionally by all accounts the 25’ draft sucks at QB, which means that getting theirQB there is going to be highly unlikely. So their next real shot at getting a franchise QB in the draft isn’t going to come until 26’, and that’s only if they still suck, which if they don’t have a franchise QB they probably will, as they aren’t going to win many games, let alone beat good teams, if they still suck at QB.

Every good team in the AFC, and pretty much every successful team in football is built around a franchise QB, with a couple of outliers.

This draft has 3 top rated QB’s, and it’s really strong at OT, allowing them to either take one at 34, or make a slight trade up with their 2nd pick to get a starter there, which can’t be dine at QB. And it’s strong and deep at war, and once again they could package picks to move up, take one with their 2nd pick, or load up in the 3rd and later rounds with prospects. And on the individual level all 3 top prospects are good to great athletes. All 3 are mobile to very mobile, all 3 have very good to great arms, 2 of the 3 have been named the best player in college football. One of whom played against the best teams in college football, Daniels, and did it behind a porous LSU OL. And Williams and Maye faced good competition. All 3 have a good deal of playing time and experience, and only one, Willians has any character questions, and so far those accusations have been unsubstantiated and pretty weak. So if you want to argue against them individually feel free to do so, so far no one has. However there are plenty of people here who actually study the tape, and know more than I do about how to evaluate their game than I do, and if they want to weigh in with coherent arguments for or against them then I welcome that as well. The more information the better. My only real complaint here is people making weak to nonexistent arguments and expecting them to be accepted at face value.

Those are my arguments for using the #3 pick to take a top QB prospect to build around for the future. Feel free to make an argument against those positions, or any other arguments you think are valid that you can make, but don’t expect something like “ they arent guaranteed to succeed”!to be considered an actual valid argument, because it’s not one.

 

[Ivan]

Sorry to disappoint your straw man opinion of anyone who is not solidly in your “take a QB at #3 no matter what” camp.

Saying that none of you have made an actual argument for bypassing the top rated QB’s for a WR or OT isn’t a “ straw man opinion,” it’s a fact. Feel free to try and make an actual argument, so far you haven’t, nor has anyone else.

 

[mgteich]

It would be a lot to go down to 12...but worry is that by alot of what I've read there are less then 12 bluechips in the draft....falling too far and missing one of them would be a travesty.

12 is too far

 

[mgteich]

Once we get a competent offensive staff worthy of handling a top 3 pick, sure. All of these guys need their hand held big time.

The problem is we dont need a McVay or Shanny disciple. We actually need one of them (Shanny or McVay) to make a move like this week to it's potential. Or are really sure the next OC is on par with them. Who on this staff would you trust to develop a top 3 QB pick? Conversely there's absolutely no thinking with Marv. Hes plug and play. Obviously will need to be coached but there's far less of a curve with him. He's a better WR than all 3 are QB.

To the bolded.

Williams ran one of the most simplistic offenses I've watched in years and absolutely invited pressure every chance he got. There's no evidence he can run a NFL offense. He's getting drafted bc of his traits and gifts. Again invites pressure and isn't good under pressure. Sick arm and other attributes but he's not a generational QB and would have gone behind guys like Lawrence, Fields, Luck etc

I'll bet on Maye but there are concerns with him too. Hes liable to Mac Jones decision making blunders at times. His lower half mechanics - base, are very inconsistent. Accuracy issues. Took too many sacks.

Daniels is a 23 yo one hit wonder that did it with two 1st RD wrs and plenty of other talent at LSU. Other teammates of his did not care for him at all and he's not comfortable working the MOF.

If we have a real offensive staff I'm all for drafting a QB but rn there's little evidence this team can handle such a move. And it's not like we have a dominant OL or outstanding targets to really help a young QB.

I'm not against drafting one. I just want a much clearer picture on the offensive side of the staff.

It is a long, long time until the draft. We'll know a lot more about our coaching team by then, hopefully including at least 2 that can develop QB's (2 of the OC, pass coordinator and QB coach). I expect that we will also have an assistant QB coach. It will take a TEAM of coaches to develop our young QB(s) and work with our veteran QB.

If Maye isn't there, I would expect a trade down to at least 4 or 5. I really don't want a WR early. Of course, the team could surprose me and sign two solid veteran OT's.

 

[Ivan]

And to be clear Muhummaf, the reason I say “ they aren’t guaranteed to succeed” isn’t an actual argument is because the same can be said about every player in the draft. It’s like saying “ they have never played in the pro’s before.” But neither has any of them, so if it’s true of all of them then that’s not making any distinction between them, thus no argument.

And when Vrabel Jr. says “ I have seen enough footage of them” but nothing else, then that doesn’t sound like he’s seen much if any footage of them, because if he had then he could follow it up by saying things like “ Maye doesn’t have the athletic ability,” or “ William’s TD/Int ratio is too high, or “ Daniel’s is just a runner, his arm is to weak for the pro’s.” I don’t believe any of those statements are accurate, but at least they would be criticisms he was making from his evaluations, but instead he made no evaluation at all, and instead claimed they were all “ 2nd round players” when the draft experts with actual scouting experience have all 3 in the top 4 players in the draft.!

So once again, if you want to argue against the QB’s then by all means do so, but base the arguments on facts, or just say you want the War or OT period, just because that’s what you want, it’s not an actual argument, but you can still want what you want, and don’t have to justify it:

 

[Uptown]

 

[Uptown]

I would take a chance on Milton as a developmental QB (but only in the highly unlikely event he's there in the 4th round, as we have other needs, especially if we take a QB at the #3 overall).

I like Milton; I just don’t like that Tennessee offensive system. It’s super simplistic.

 

[Ivan]

Imo this site has one of the best, if not the best message boards on the draft that is out there. There are a number of poster’s who actually spend considerable time watching tape on college players and know what they should be looking for, and how to evaluate them. I can only do that at a rudimentary level, so I base my arguments on more rudimentary concepts. I haven’t seen those people weigh in one these prospects yet, with BGC being the best example I can think of off the top of my head, but I am interested to see what they have to say about this draft and these prospects, and the players and overall approach they think they should take. I may or may not agree with them but I’m certainly going to listen to them and weigh their arguments. What I’m not willing to credit is people just throwing out generalities, like “ they aren’t guaranteed to succeed,” and expect them to be taken seriously. We have 3 months left to argue about this, and we are all going to go over this ground a million times, and hopefully the level of argument is going to raise up to a high level, there is certainly the knowledge here to get to that level, but so far that hasn’t happened, but it’s still really early, so we shouldn’t really expect that anyways.?

 

[Ivan]

If there is justice in the universe, a QB named Rattler, HAS to be a success.

I doubt anyone will agree , specially you Muhammed , but I would actually be fine with them taking the QB at #3, and then going back to the well in the 3rd round if a QB like Rattler fell to that area of the draft. That may seem like overkill to some, but building the best QB room in football would be the best way to return to consistent contender that there is, so that’s well worth the investment. There are numerous ways to keep building WR and OL even after dedicating two high picks to QB.

 

[The Gr8est]

I doubt anyone will agree , specially you Muhammed , but I would actually be fine with them taking the QB at #3, and then going back to the well in the 3rd round if a QB like Rattler fell to that area of the draft. That may seem like overkill to some, but building the best QB room in football would be the best way to return to consistent contender that there is, so that’s well worth the investment. There are numerous ways to keep building WR and OL even after dedicating two high picks to QB.

I am not opposed to taking a QB at #3 if the right one is there, but you can’t be drafting with “QB beer goggles”. I am just not in the “QB or bust” camp, when there are superior players at other positions. Some teams do that and it statistically doesn’t work out.

I do like the idea of plundering a team who DOES have QB beer goggles, like Carolina did, and damaged themselves now and in the future with their ill-advised trade for Bryant Young.

The Bears got a huge gift that will set them up for years if they play their cards right, and I would love for the Pats to get a deal offered to them like the Bears got.

I would be more confident if they had a proven professional running their draft, and this post-BB era does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling yet.

As for double dipping on QBs, I am all for it.
BB did that many times, and the results were reasonably good. Many of those QBs ended up starting games in the NFL. There was one week a few years ago, when I believe seven QBs started who began with the Pats.

 

[PatsFan2]

I like Milton; I just don’t like that Tennessee offensive system. It’s super simplistic.

Yep that was said about Hendon Hooker last year they will definitely have to sit for a year or two.

 

[PatsFan2]

Looked kinda meh.

 

[Headcase]

My issue with QB at 3 no matter what, is I hate the idea of taking a guy that high, but not picking between multiple prospects. If the QBs go 1,2 that only leaves one guy at 3; so by this method you need a QB so you just take him

Don't like reads? TAKE HIM. Don't like his bailing on progressions to run? TAKE HIM. Don't like that he seems to see/throw vs anticipate? TAKE HIM. Doesn't fit the offense your new coordinator wants to run? TAKE HIM.

(And yes the above is leaning on my bias against Daniels, but replace the prompts with whatever you like.)

Picking a different position at 3, or with a small trade down, let you pick between multiple players and pick the one that best fits what you are trying to mold your team into, and I think that is a better strategy to build a team, not JUST TAKE THE QB.

 

[Headcase]

Of course, the team could surprose me and sign two solid veteran OT's.

The problem being those guys don't exist in this FA.