Draft Day Market Maker

[flutie2phelan]

In dryheat44's nearby, encyclopedic, 7-round mock ... the thread touches upon a separate theme of some importance.
How many new players shall ... or should ... our braintrust take?

Some discussants take dryheat to task for transforming our picks into 13 actual players selected.
How will so many fit onto the roster?
I join their quarrel.

With 11 picks, if i count correctly, we lead the league.
A number of teams follow with 10.

Having such a solid roster that we end up having to cut good players ... is a meaningful problem.
But that is not even the principal reason ... why the Patriots probably exercise no more than 8.

The main reason is that having a surfeit of picks ... makes Piolichick the go-to guy on draft day.
The Pats become the NFL's equivalent of Knight Capital Group on Nasdaq.
Having the most inventory means we hold the best inventory. Anyone who thinks of trading up or down ...
thinks first of Piolichick. We get the first call.
We become known as the guys capable of doing business.
Further, we now have a reputation for being willing to do business - on either side of the market!
The Patriots also are not shy about trading up, tactically, or about initiating trades instead of merely waiting for the phone to ring.

Being in this position is a distinct advantage. Each time someone comes to the Pats for a trade,
we gain some incremental edge. These accumulate and carry forward.
Because our roster is strong enough that we can "defer gratification" (trade down, trade forward) ...
the picks in inventory tend to become higher and/or more numerous.
When you are the marketmaker, you collect the spread. When you are the house, you get the vig.
Wholesalers sell at retail.

And none of this is because Kraft is a power at NFL hq. Or because of the gourmet dining room at The Razor.
Or the pulchritude of some players' wives.
It's because we've got the goods. When it's meat you want ... go to the butcher. Flowers, the florist.
Available draft slots ... the Patriots.

Count on it. Sunday night, when all is tallied, the Pats will be rolling forward into 2007
more or better draft picks than anyone else.

 

[DarrylS]

Good point, that is why although I enjoy all the mocks, theories and speculation, but do not put much faith in them for the same reason. No way there are 10 or 11 openings on this squad, there are about 5 or 6 at the most, with all this capital we can be selective and patient. Have felt all along we will more than likely trade down to the 2nd or 3rd round for pix this year and next year. On the other hand nothing surprises me as a Pats Fan and the Draft, late Saturday I will probably say wtf were they thinking, then will come to understand better in the next couple of weeks and finally when December comes will realize their genius once again.

 

[Irish Hooligan]

In dryheat44's nearby, encyclopedic, 7-round mock ... the thread touches upon a separate theme of some importance.
How many new players shall ... or should ... our braintrust take?

Some discussants take dryheat to task for transforming our picks into 13 actual players selected.
How will so many fit onto the roster?
I join their quarrel.

With 11 picks, if i count correctly, we lead the league.
A number of teams follow with 10.

Having such a solid roster that we end up having to cut good players ... is a meaningful problem.
But that is not even the principal reason ... why the Patriots probably exercise no more than 8.

The main reason is that having a surfeit of picks ... makes Piolichick the go-to guy on draft day.
The Pats become the NFL's equivalent of Knight Capital Group on Nasdaq.
Having the most inventory means we hold the best inventory. Anyone who thinks of trading up or down ...
thinks first of Piolichick. We get the first call.
We become known as the guys capable of doing business.
Further, we now have a reputation for being willing to do business - on either side of the market!
The Patriots also are not shy about trading up, tactically, or about initiating trades instead of merely waiting for the phone to ring.

Being in this position is a distinct advantage. Each time someone comes to the Pats for a trade,
we gain some incremental edge. These accumulate and carry forward.
Because our roster is strong enough that we can "defer gratification" (trade down, trade forward) ...
the picks in inventory tend to become higher and/or more numerous.
When you are the marketmaker, you collect the spread. When you are the house, you get the vig.
Wholesalers sell at retail.

And none of this is because Kraft is a power at NFL hq. Or because of the gourmet dining room at The Razor.
Or the pulchritude of some players' wives.
It's because we've got the goods. When it's meat you want ... go to the butcher. Flowers, the florist.
Available draft slots ... the Patriots.

Count on it. Sunday night, when all is tallied, the Pats will be rolling forward into 2007
more or better draft picks than anyone else.

Very, very solid observation. Well put.:rocker:

 

[patchick]

No way there are 10 or 11 openings on this squad, there are about 5 or 6 at the most, with all this capital we can be selective and patient. Have felt all along we will more than likely trade down to the 2nd or 3rd round for pix this year and next year.

I'm guessing this will be an active trade year too. But as we've discussed before, the team systematically traded out of the last draft and into this deeper one. And if your goal is not to draft 11 players but to come away with a smaller, more concentrated talent pool, don't you trade up, not down?

It's easy to picture the Pats making a couple of incremental moves up on day 1 to walk away with 3 genuine impact players. Say using a 3rd to move up in round 1 for a top OLB candidate like Lawson, then a 4th to move up from #52 for the last of an impact-DB value group (say Cromartie, J. Williams, R. Marshall, J. Allen, Your-Pet-DB-Here.) That leaves a 3rd to take advantage of a sliding BPA, and a full day-2 slate to play with.

Or not, of course.

 

[dryheat44]

follow with 10.[/COLOR]

The main reason is that having a surfeit of picks ... makes Piolichick the go-to guy on draft day.
The Pats become the NFL's equivalent of Knight Capital Group on Nasdaq.
Having the most inventory means we hold the best inventory. Anyone who thinks of trading up or down ...
thinks first of Piolichick. We get the first call.
We become known as the guys capable of doing business.
Further, we now have a reputation for being willing to do business - on either side of the market!
The Patriots also are not shy about trading up, tactically, or about initiating trades instead of merely waiting for the phone to ring.

And none of this is because Kraft is a power at NFL hq. Or because of the gourmet dining room at The Razor.
Or the pulchritude of some players' wives.
It's because we've got the goods. When it's meat you want ... go to the butcher. Flowers, the florist.
Available draft slots ... the Patriots.

Count on it. Sunday night, when all is tallied, the Pats will be rolling forward into 2007
more or better draft picks than anyone else.

Your point here is an excellent one, and one I hadn't considered. Of course, GMs, whether in our conference, or even NFC GMs with a tinge of jealosy, may not have Belichick on speed dial for just those reasons. There is probably some resentment growing among the have-nots, as well as a reluctance to get fleeced.

Now you're last sentance I don't agree with. We've lost some premium free agents this year, and will, at minimum, have 10 draft picks next year. How many more do we want to add to what is supposedly a subpar draft? In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if Belichick shed some of those '07 picks during or after the draft for a guy like Donnie Edwards, or if we don't find adequate WR help in the draft or free agency.