Dr Z's take on div playoffs

[SVN]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/dr_z/01/08/playoffs/2.html

 

[psychoPat]

OK.
Makes sense for him. Makes sense for anyone.

Just isn't fated to happen.

 

[patsfaninpa]

I have no problem with people picking SD. They had the better reg. season. Plus, home-field with a bye. I think we can win. But, can see why people think they will.

 

[Chargerfan21]

Hmmmmmmmmmm, Dr.Z knows his stuff!

 

[SVN]

I have no problem with people picking SD. They had the better reg. season. Plus, home-field with a bye. I think we can win. But, can see why people think they will.

yup..i think SD is favored for a reason...i didnt notice until this column that the jets didnt punt once in the 2nd half...that is disturbing because SD in the red zone is not like the jets..hopefully it was part of the game plan

 

[boltssbbound]

Dude, you are truly a douche and give Charger fans a bad name.

 

[RayClay]

Dr. Z reminds me of the Wizard of Oz just as the dog pulls the curtain back.

Could he have been any more indecisive there? I feel sorry for him, we should just let him pick both teams like Borges does.

I really think Z used to do a lot of work analyzing, which his why he has such a fan base, but he's mailing it in these days IMO.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

That was a good little blurb by Dr. Z except for one thing.

Hes comparing Pennington to Rivers as if they were equals. Which is a joke. You cant compare two totally different players and say they'll prove the same result. Pennington has faced this defense and scheme numerous times in the course of 5 years or so. Rivers? 0.

I dont mind his prediction of the Chargers but he was just reaching on that point IMO.

 

[Chargerfan21]

I didn't read the article, but I agree.

Thats sig material right there ^^^

 

[MrClutch]

That was a good little blurb by Dr. Z except for one thing.

Hes comparing Pennington to Rivers as if they were equals. Which is a joke. You cant compare two totally different players and say they'll prove the same result. Pennington has faced this defense and scheme numerous times in the course of 5 years or so. Rivers? 0.

I dont mind his prediction of the Chargers but he was just reaching on that point IMO.

Exactly. Pennington has playoff experience, compare that to a first year quarterback.

 

[NEPat]

That's a good analysis. He's right, the Jets did move the ball, they just couldn't convert in the red zone. The Chargers will probably be better at that, and the Patriots offense will have to put up some points. He respects the Pats, which is why he's not sold on his prediction, but I expect most people to pick the Chargers. I have no problem with that.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Hmmmmmmmmmm, Dr.Z knows his stuff!

Actually his assessment of the game is off in my opinion. The Patriots (mainly Brady) were able to dictate the pace of the game and keep the Jets D off kilter by running a lot of no huddle and spread formations.

They've been doing this effectively ever since their wakeup call against the Dolphins and haven't looked back.

Dr. Z. says the "turning point" was when they "got their running game going". They could have done that at any point - it's just been a situation where for the last few games, BB has wanted points on the board and has used a lot of short passes.

Once they get to the 4th quarter and have the score in their favor and are in control of the game, BB turns it over to the running game, which is now going up against a very tired D.

That allows him to have some very time consuming drives. Dr. Z notes that 11:39 marked the beginning of his turning point - that's nearly one entire clock eating drive for the Patriots.

The game was well in hand well before those last drives of the game.

 

[upstater1]

The Jets also had multiple turnovers. Kind of hard to punt the ball when you're turning the ball over.

OK, Dr. Z and charger fans, I'll make the trade. The chargers will not punt in the second half, but they will turn the ball over 3 times.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

The Jets also had multiple turnovers. Kind of hard to punt the ball when you're turning the ball over.

Dr Z is off base, no doubt. The Jets had 5 possessions in the second half.

(#5) [Their last possession] gained 18 yards and ended on downs.
(#4) 2 plays and ended in an INT.
(#3) A good 56 yard drive that ended at the 20 yard line with a FG.
(#2) 33 yards to midfield and ended on a fumble.
(#1) a very good drive of 73 yards that ended at the 3 yard line with a FG
**********2 possessions that even qualified as punt-able.*********

-First half, the Jets punted on 3 of 5 possessions (not counting the single down end of the half possession).
-The other 2 were a possession that started at the Patriot 15 and gained a total of 5 yards and a FG, and a possession where the Patriots gave up a 77 yard TD pass.

Overall game stats, 10 possessions for the Jets.
- 3 punts
- 2 turnovers
- 1 ended on downs
- 1 starting on the Patriot 15 that gained 5 yards,
- 1 very long strike, (**this is the one the Patriots should be pissed about**)
- 1 very good FG drive
- 1 solid FG drive.

The Jets had only 2 sustained drives that got into the red zone and 1 of those made it by only 1 yard into the red zone (19 yard line). Again, only 2 Sustained drives into the red zone all game. The Patriots had 3 by the end of the first half with a game total of 5 (3 TD's and 2 FG's in the second half).

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

That's a good analysis. He's right, the Jets did move the ball, they just couldn't convert in the red zone. The Chargers will probably be better at that, and the Patriots offense will have to put up some points. He respects the Pats, which is why he's not sold on his prediction, but I expect most people to pick the Chargers. I have no problem with that.

Plenty of teams give up yards between the 30's or even 20's. If that was the measuring stick of a defense, who knows where the Patriots would rank. Keeping a team out of the end zone is what butter's a defense's bread. The Patriots were second best in the league in points allowed and that is one of the main reasons. Interesting Stats.....

- SD allowed 47 trips inside the red zone allowing TD's 57% of the time.
- NE allowed 35 trips inside the red zone allowing TD's 34% of the time.
- That ranked NE at #2 and SD at #29
- Balt had the best % at 33. The only other team under 40 was Minn at 38
- 4 teams allowed under 40 trips into the red zone (balt 33,Jax 32,Mia 36)
- The patriots overall scoring percentage allowed in the red zone (TD's and FG's divided into red zone trips) was 74. Again Balt was best at 66. SD is 27th.

On Offense

- SD had the most red zone trips (62 - tied with Indy)
- NE was 3rd with 60
- SD converted the best TD ratio in red zone at 67% and scoring ratio at 95
- NE was 5th at 60% and 7th overall scoring in the red zone at 88

 

[NEPat]

- SD had the most red zone trips (62 - tied with Indy)
- SD converted the best TD ratio in red zone at 67% and scoring ratio at 95

You're right about the Pats doing a great job in the red zone, but these stats are why I think the Chargers will obviously present a much tougher challenge. If the Pats allow them to have long drives like the Jets did against them, I don't think they'll be able to stop them in the red zone as easily.

Not that the Chargers will roll them over, but I'm sure it won't be a big surprise or anything if the Pats give up some points. That's why I'm saying the offense will really have to be on their game, and I think they're as ready as they'll ever be for it.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

You're right about the Pats doing a great job in the red zone, but these stats are why I think the Chargers will obviously present a much tougher challenge. If the Pats allow them to have long drives like the Jets did against them, I don't think they'll be able to stop them in the red zone as easily.

Not that the Chargers will roll them over, but I'm sure it won't be a big surprise or anything if the Pats give up some points. That's why I'm saying the offense will really have to be on their game, and I think they're as ready as they'll ever be for it.

I haven't seen enough video on SD to comment, however, the Jets I can. Here's the thing you notice about the Jets. They are very efficient (I said as much in a post last week). Look at the drive log summary against us, against their previous week's opponent etc etc. This is a team that keeps itself consistently in very manageable third downs. And when they need 5 on third down? They get 6 yards. The Jets can ball control with the best of them. Credit to Pennington too on that. He is very, very good at that imho. I am not arguing, however, that SD presents the same challenge or that they are paper tigers. SD is very, very good. But our D, regarding the previously posted statistics, is a proven commodity in the red zone. I don't believe that will change next week UNLESS we don't stop LT. LT starts sparking it up in the running and to an extent in the passing game, fuhget about it!

(Additionally, when the game is played Sunday all the stats in the world mean zilch)

 

[Armen Da Pats Fan]

Hey on paper, everyone SHOULD be picking San Diego...

Just like everyone picked Ohio State last night!

How 'bout them Gators!?!?!?

Go Pats!

 

[Oswlek]

Plenty of teams give up yards between the 30's or even 20's. If that was the measuring stick of a defense, who knows where the Patriots would rank. Keeping a team out of the end zone is what butter's a defense's bread. The Patriots were second best in the league in points allowed and that is one of the main reasons. Interesting Stats.....

- SD allowed 47 trips inside the red zone allowing TD's 57% of the time.
- NE allowed 35 trips inside the red zone allowing TD's 34% of the time.
- That ranked NE at #2 and SD at #29
- Balt had the best % at 33. The only other team under 40 was Minn at 38
- 4 teams allowed under 40 trips into the red zone (balt 33,Jax 32,Mia 36)
- The patriots overall scoring percentage allowed in the red zone (TD's and FG's divided into red zone trips) was 74. Again Balt was best at 66. SD is 27th.

On Offense

- SD had the most red zone trips (62 - tied with Indy)
- NE was 3rd with 60
- SD converted the best TD ratio in red zone at 67% and scoring ratio at 95
- NE was 5th at 60% and 7th overall scoring in the red zone at 88

I am going to steal some of this when I do my analysis. Thanks.

 

[PlattsFan]

I like Dr. Z for his writing, his overall knowledge, and his crusty political throwaway lines, but ... he is mailing it in these days. As noted above, the number of punts by the Jets is pretty meaningless, and anyone watching the game would know that the Patriots pretty much had control of the game during the entire second half. The "turning point" of the game was the TD at the end of the first half, if you believe in turning points in a game that was a solid win for one side (I don't). How about the Pats not punting after the first quarter?

And ... you just can't compare what one offense would do against the Patriots with what another would do. The Jets run a totally different offense than the Chargers, so the fact that the Chargers offense is *much* better than the Jets doesn't mean that it will be that much better against the Patriots. It may be, or it may be only a bit better, or it may roll over the Patriots like the Wehrmacht running through France.

I have no problem with someone picking the Chargers. They're the top seed for a reason, but I think it's a fairly even contest, especially if Rodney plays. Sell out the LBs against Tomlinson, keep the safeties focused on Gates, let Samuel and Hobbs take care of the WRs ... and see what ya got. I think the Pats can score against the Chargers.