Doug Kyed doing data-driven draft "forecasting"

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's a link to the articles:

Doug Kyed | NESN.com

Basically, he's gone through each position and looked at what the Pats "typically" want from the player in terms of measurables (e.g., height, weight, 40 time, etc.). He's then gone through the players at the combine and ranked them based on how many of those criteria they meet.

He doesn't actually predict specific players the Patriots will draft, but rather several players, over the course of the draft, who meet most/all of the criteria.

For example, according to Kyed, here are the top fits at TE:

• Ben Braunecker, Harvard, 8/11 criteria met
• Austin Hooper, Stanford, 8/11
• Beau Sandland, Montana State, 8/11
• David Morgan, UTSA, 8/11
• Jerrell Adams, South Carolina, 7/11
• Dan Vitale (FB-ish), Northwestern, 7/11 [he's small, but he checks every other box except a slightly too long 3-cone]
• Thomas Duarte, UCLA, 7/11

 

[manxman2601]

Here's a link to the articles:

Doug Kyed | NESN.com

Basically, he's gone through each position and looked at what the Pats "typically" want from the player in terms of measurables (e.g., height, weight, 40 time, etc.). He's then gone through the players at the combine and ranked them based on how many of those criteria they meet.

He doesn't actually predict specific players the Patriots will draft, but rather several players, over the course of the draft, who meet most/all of the criteria.

For example, according to Kyed, here are the top fits at TE:

• Ben Braunecker, Harvard, 8/11 criteria met
• Austin Hooper, Stanford, 8/11
• Beau Sandland, Montana State, 8/11
• David Morgan, UTSA, 8/11
• Jerrell Adams, South Carolina, 7/11
• Dan Vitale (FB-ish), Northwestern, 7/11 [he's small, but he checks every other box except a slightly too long 3-cone]
• Thomas Duarte, UCLA, 7/11

I've got all his charts saved. Very interesting and it informed my big board. In terms of the TEs you've listed, I've been high on Morgan and Adams for a while and watched Braunecker pre-combine and was impressed by him.

 

[manxman2601]

As part of a bigger project, I graded the WR's based upon athleticism.

• I've only graded WRs that ran all the drills at the combine
• I gave each WR a grade out of 5 for speed (the 40 basically), explosion (the jumps) and quickness (3-cone and shuttle).
• I then added those grades together and then divided by 3 to get a final score out of 5.
• You will see a single asterisk or double asterisk after some names. A single asterix means a top grade (5/5) for speed. A double asterisk means a top grade for quickness. This should be helpful in distinguishing quality outside receivers from slot receivers.

Here are the grades.

4.67 - Josh Doctson **
Trevor Davis*

4.33 - Braxton Miller**

4.00 - Will Fuller*
Sterling Shepard

3.67 - Devon Cajuste**
Malcolm Mitchell
Chris Moore
Marquez North
Charone Peake

3.33 - DJ Foster**
Jalin Marshall
Jordan Payton
Michael Thomas**

3.00 - Demarcus Robinson
Braylon Addison

2.67 - Tyler Boyd
Cayleb Jones
Keyarris Garrett
Mekale McKay

There are some lower than this but they have lower than average athleticism.

Remember however that there are some notable names not included because they didn't do all the drills. Leonte Carroo, for example, didn't run the quickness drills so isn't included (he was averaging 4.00 for the other drills though).

I intend to do the same for other positions over time.

 

[manxman2601]

Tight Ends now:

4.00
Ben Braunecker**

3.67
Jerrell Adams
Austin Hooper
Beau Sandland

3.33
David Morgan**
Thomas Duarte

3.00
Temmarick Hemingway

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Just so we understand, how do the grades work? One example (say 40 time) should be enough.

 

[manxman2601]

Just so we understand, how do the grades work? One example (say 40 time) should be enough.

It depends on the position, but with forty time for WRs I went:

5 points - 4.3-low 4.4
4 points - low 4.4 -4.50
3 points - 4.50-4.60
2 points 4.60-4.70
1 point - 4.7 plus.

This is part of a bigger project which I'm trailing this year and I'm not being too scientific this year as I just want to see how it goes so there might be some minor discrepancies but that's basically it.

 

[Luxusdk]

So hand size 11+ is 5 points ?

 

[manxman2601]

So hand size 11+ is 5 points ?

I am actually incorporating size, length, weight into my overall project but it's not included in this athleticism ranking which is purely speed, explosion and quickness, weighted for position but not for size.

 

[midwestpatsfan]

I have been working with a similar formula using density (weight relative to height). The numbers help when you start to get guys grouped together and you are looking for something to help rank them.