Crazy statistic: Pats are 56-1 when they run more than pass

[E1Downey]

Was wondering if anyone had confirmation on this stat from Damon Amendolara.

According to DA the patriots are 56-1 during the Tom Brady era when they run more than pass. 56-1!!! Found that to be crazy indeed, and makes me feel even better now that this team has found some balance.

Wondering if anyone had checked this out already. I mean I'd totally do it myself but I'm short on time. Yeah time, that's it. It's definitely not laziness.

Anyway what does the crew here think of this? Pretty amazing yes?

 

[cavtroop]

Re: Crazy statistic

thats one of those statistics that can be read a bunch of ways.

I interpret it to mean that we run the ball more often when we're playing with a lead.

 

[SanAngeloState]

Re: Crazy statistic

You may be on to something. I think a running game is important, especially in cold windy weather when it's difficult to pass...however, as the previous poster noticed you must be careful re the "Post hoc ergo propter hoc" fallacy.

 

[E1Downey]

Re: Crazy statistic

thats one of those statistics that can be read a bunch of ways.

I interpret it to mean that we run the ball more often when we're playing with a lead.

You know that's a very interesting point that I clearly overlooked. I was just excited when I heard the statistic. Maybe it's not as crazy as I thought lol. Lord knows there's been a lot of games the past few years where the pats played with a lead.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Re: Crazy statistic

The overall point may still be valid - as one way to roughly check, is there any way to know the Pats win/loss record with Brady when they get 100 rushing yards or 150 rushing yards or some other random rushing total (and perhaps not count 4th quarter stats)?

 

[Shockt327]

Re: Crazy statistic

Winning causes rushing. Rushing does not necessarily cause winning.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Re: Crazy statistic

The overall point may still be valid - as one way to roughly check, is there any way to know the Pats win/loss record with Brady when they get 100 rushing yards or 150 rushing yards or some other random rushing total (and perhaps not count 4th quarter stats)?

Pro-Football-Reference.com - Pro Football Statistics and History

100+ yds rushing, 2001-2011: 83-16
125+ yds: 60-5
150+ yds: 33-1
175+ yds: 19-0

And just to show it's not merely rushing = wins, take the JEST, please.

100+ yds rushing, 2001-2011: 62-40
125+ yds: 47-24
150+ yds: 35-6
175+ yds: 21-3

 

[Urgent]

Re: Crazy statistic

Absolutely.
Teams pass more when behind, and run more when ahead, especially in the second half.

It does not at all imply that if you run more you will win.
It means if you are winning, you are more likely to run.

Similar to rich people drive a lot more Mercedes than Hyundais.
Doesn't mean if you buy a Mercedes you will get richer.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: Crazy statistic

It would be interesting to find out how much of the rushing attempts were in garbage time. When you are winning by 3 or more TDs in the fourth, that will up your rushing attempts in many cases.

 

[E1Downey]

Re: Crazy statistic

Absolutely.
Teams pass more when behind, and run more when ahead, especially in the second half.

It does not at all imply that if you run more you will win.
It means if you are winning, you are more likely to run.

Similar to rich people drive a lot more Mercedes than Hyundais.
Doesn't mean if you buy a Mercedes you will get richer.

Indeed. I didn't think this through at all when I first heard it. Although I still think it is somewhat significant. Holding onto and maintaining a lead in a game is just as important as gaining one in the first place yes? Wouldn't they be running to sustain long drives while eating up clock and closing out the game. Forget games like the Tennessee game in the October snow, and think more like yesterday.

Thanks for setting me straight everyone. Definitely not as " crazy " as I first thought lol

 

[robbomango]

Re: Crazy statistic

Pro-Football-Reference.com - Pro Football Statistics and History

100+ yds rushing, 2001-2011: 83-16
125+ yds: 60-5
150+ yds: 33-1
175+ yds: 19-0

And just to show it's not merely rushing = wins, take the JEST, please.

100+ yds rushing, 2001-2011: 62-40
125+ yds: 47-24
150+ yds: 35-6
175+ yds: 21-3

LMAO, good find.

 

[Triumph]

Re: Crazy statistic

It would be interesting to find out how much of the rushing attempts were in garbage time. When you are winning by 3 or more TDs in the fourth, that will up your rushing attempts in many cases.

Not to mention the Pats run to set up play action later. Even if there is no gain (how many times have you seen that with a Pats RB?) you still get to see how the defense will react.

 

[ausbacker]

Re: Crazy statistic

It's not like people have been complaining about the need for offensive balance for how many years now? TB will go down as probably the greatest to ever play the game but we need to take the load off his shoulders.

 

[sieglo]

Re: Crazy statistic

Was wondering if anyone had confirmation on this stat from Damon Amendolara.

According to DA the patriots are 56-1 during the Tom Brady era when they run more than pass. 56-1!!! Found that to be crazy indeed, and makes me feel even better now that this team has found some balance.

Wondering if anyone had checked this out already. I mean I'd totally do it myself but I'm short on time. Yeah time, that's it. It's definitely not laziness.

Anyway what does the crew here think of this? Pretty amazing yes?

Certain mediots would make the case that this means Brady isn't a very good Qb, and is in fact just a system guy benefitting from a great running game.

 

[Froob]

Re: Crazy statistic

Who was the one loss?

 

[PatsDeb]

Re: Crazy statistic

Isn't this stat kind of misleading? I mean, if we (or any team) are down 2 scores then we are going to be throwing a lot, so of course there are going to be more passes than rushes, and we have a more likely chance of losing such a game. In other words, we are more likely to lose a game where we have thrown more, because chances are we were down a score or two and had to throw to try to score quickly.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Re: Crazy statistic

Who was the one loss?

i would like to know this as well