I've also been looking into potential McCourty contracts, and I've determined that the actual value range should be between the $5.625 million APY that Ward got and $7 million APY that Jones got. If the Pats pay him $9 million his value isn't commensurate with his impact on the field.
The Pats play mostly cover 1 with McCourty playing 15 yards off the ball. He then drops an additional 10 yards back once the ball is snapped. In essence his role is to not let anything get behind him, but on most plays it leaves him completely out of the play. Only the players with truly elite range and instincts like Ed Reed or Earl Thomas can be impact cover 1 safeties the way BB is playing McCourty. Truth be told McCourty has made his fair share of mistakes this year in that role as well. The Pats are tied for 3rd worst in the league with 61 passing plays of 20+ yards given up.
Harmon could probably do the same job nearly as well for < 1/10th of the cost. Where we'd lose out is his ability to bump down and cover TE's, but T. Wilson has shown some promise there, and we could always look for cheaper options in FA as well. Basically if you're going to pay someone $9 million APY you better be sure he's one of the top players who is going to win or lose you a game. I'm not sure McCourty is that. He's a guy you love to have on his rookie contract, but may hate in his second contract. The last thing we need is another Jerod Mayo situation.
