Clear explanation of the Pats playoff situation

[signbabybrady]

"gramma" mistake? What is a gramma mistake?

At least I was just pointing out irony and not calling everyone ignorant. Besides I have made pretty clear I don't check my own gramma and speling

 

[upstater1]

UPDATE OF POSSIBILITIES ACCORDING TO LIKELIHOOD:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division

2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division

3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to either the 49ers or Chiefs, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak against Jets, common opponents)

5) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.

6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games; the Patriots win the wild card.

7) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2; the Patriots win the division.

8) Patriots go 2-1 with loss to the Cardinals, Phins lose to Chiefs and beat Jets, Chiefs win 2 other games, Chargers lose 3 games, then the Patriots win the division on the 6th tiebreaker, strength of schedule.

 

[363839]

It was so much easier last year...

 

[Raymond]

8) Patriots go 2-1 with loss to the Cardinals, Phins lose to Chiefs and beat Jets, Chiefs win 2 other games, Chargers lose 3 games, then the Patriots win the division on the 6th tiebreaker, strength of schedule.

Wow, I'd like an actuary to roll me the odds on that one.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

Corrected for everyone but McNabb.

UPDATE OF POSSIBILITIES ACCORDING TO LIKELIHOOD:

1) The Patriots go 3-0, the Jets lose OR TIE one of their next 2 games, then the Jets beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division

2) The Patriots go 3-0, Dolphins lose OR TIE one of their next 2 games, then the Dolphins beat the Jets; the Patriots win the division

3) The Patriots go 3-0, the Ravens lose 2 of 3 OR LOSE ONE AND TIE ONE OR TIE ALL THREE (their schedule is tough); the Patriots win a wild card spot

4) The Patriots go 2-1 with a loss to the Cardinals, the Dolphins lose to either the 49ers or Chiefs OR TIE BOTH THE 49RS AND CHIEFS, the Jets lose to the Bills and beat the Dolphins; the Patriots win the division (10-6 tiebreak against Jets, common opponents)

5) The Patriots go 3-0, the Colts lose 2 of 3 games OR LOSE 1 AND TIE ONE OR TIE ALL THREE despite an easy schedule (DET/JAX/TENN); the Patriots win the wild card.

6) The Patriots go 3-0, the Steelers lose all 3 of their games OR LOSE 2 AND TIE 1; the Patriots win the wild card.

7) The Patriots go 2-1, both the Dolphins and Jets go 1-2 (OR 1-1-1); the Patriots win the division.

8) Patriots go 2-1 with loss to the Cardinals, Phins lose to Chiefs and beat Jets, Chiefs win 2 other games, Chargers lose 3 games, then the Patriots win the division on the 6th tiebreaker, strength of schedule. ONE OF THE CHIEF WINS OR ONE OF THE CHARGER LOSES COULD BE A TIE INSTEAD.

9) Patriots go 3-0, Mia - Jets game ends in a tie.

 

[upstater1]

Corrected for everyone but McNabb.



9) Patriots go 3-0, Mia - Jets game ends in a tie.

You shouldn't have gone on your tie tirade.

Let's pretend ties don't exist.

Why?

Because #5. If the Phins go 1-0-2 that's better than the Patriots going 2-0-1 percentage wise. A tie doesn't affect the W/L percentage.

There are probably a million variables in all this if you include ties.

We got it down to 9 variables on wins and losses.

 

[TheGodInAGreyHoodie]

You shouldn't have gone on your tie tirade.

Let's pretend ties don't exist.

Why?

Because #5. If the Phins go 1-0-2 that's better than the Patriots going 2-0-1 percentage wise. A tie doesn't affect the W/L percentage.

There are probably a million variables in all this if you include ties.

We got it down to 9 variables on wins and losses.

Actually it does.

There are several ways to treat ties. One way is to ignore them.

Another way is to treat them as half a win and half a loss. That is what the NFL does. For example the Eagles are 7-5-1. Under the ignore ties method their % would be .583 (7/12). Under the treat them as a half a win and half a loss there win % would be .577 (7.5/13). Go see which one the nfl uses NFL Standings: Division.

And the half a win, half a loss system actually makes more sense. Lets say a team went 2-0-14.(granted very unlikely) Should they be treated as having the same win-loss % as a team going 16-0? No, they would have the same win % as a team that went 9-7-0.

 

[upstater1]

Actually it does.

There are several ways to treat ties. One way is to ignore them.

Another way is to treat them as half a win and half a loss. That is what the NFL does. For example the Eagles are 7-5-1. Under the ignore ties method their % would be .583 (7/12). Under the treat them as a half a win and half a loss there win % would be .577 (7.5/13). Go see which one the nfl uses NFL Standings: Division.

And the half a win, half a loss system actually makes more sense. Lets say a team went 2-0-14.(granted very unlikely) Should they be treated as having the same win-loss % as a team going 16-0? No, they would have the same win % as a team that went 9-7-0.

Good points, I'm an idiot.

In the NHL, a tie counts for like, 3/4s of a win.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

While it is nice to know all of the possibilities, the take home thought is in all likelihood we need to hope for:

3 Patriots wins, coupled with losses by both the Jets and the Dolphins or instead coupled with two losses for the Ravens.

If you can only keep one sentence in your head, that one should do for about 95% of the realistic outcomes.

 

[signbabybrady]

Good points, I'm an idiot.

In the NHL, a tie counts for like, 3/4s of a win.

except they dont tie they have a shoot out.

 

[upstater1]

except they dont tie they have a shoot out.

And if you lose the shootout, you get points.

In fact, I think if you lose in OT, you might still get points.

 

[captain stone]

It was so much easier last year...

Like Buckwheat to Spanky: You ted it...

Here' my question(s) of the weekend:
Is there any Realistic way that the Pats can still get a first-round bye? Because my next question is:
Should I root for the Squeelers or the Murderers(allegedly)?

 

[jmt57]

While it is nice to know all of the possibilities, the take home thought is in all likelihood we need to hope for:

3 Patriots wins, coupled with losses by both the Jets and the Dolphins or instead coupled with two losses for the Ravens.

If you can only keep one sentence in your head, that one should do for about 95% of the realistic outcomes.

True, because for some reason I don't think #5 will happen, since the Colts and Titans play each other on the last game of the year once again. Got a feeling there's some payback due to the Colts from last year, in addition to their common enemy. In fact, I think #8 - the one that involved about eight games - has more of a chance of happening than the Titans actually trying to beat the Colts if it would eliminate Indy.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Like Buckwheat to Spanky: You ted it...

Here' my question(s) of the weekend:
Is there any Realistic way that the Pats can still get a first-round bye? Because my next question is:
Should I root for the Squeelers or the Murderers(allegedly)?

Realistic? Probably not. If the Pats win the Division, then the Steelers would have to finish the Season 0--3 AND the Colts and Ravens would have to both go 1--2 AND the Broncos would have to go 2--1.

Final comment EDITED out based on Alamo's correction.

 

[alamo]

I think we're pulling for the Ravens, since we get the Wildcard if we win out and either of the two teams loses two games.

No. Even if the Steelers lose this week and next week, they can finish 11-5 by beating Cleveland in Week 17, and would beat us out for the wildcard based upon head-to-head.

 

[Brady'sButtBoy]

Yes, there's no debating it - the best thing for the Pats would be for Baltimore to crater and go 0-3 against Pitt, @Dallas, Jax, to finish; actually 1-2 would get it done for us if we win out. That way if we win out we're in as wildcard or division winner as long as Jets beat Miami. Now...if the Jets implode and go 1-2, our dream scenario is that we win out and the Jets beat Miami on the last day but still won't make the playoffs, neither would the Fins depending on what Baltimore does.

It all hinges on our game against AZ and the Jets/Miami game at the end since I find it easy to believe Miami will go into that game 10-5.

(Sadly, for Matt Cassel and Pats fans, I may be wrong about the playoffs if Cassel chooses not to play Sunday. The Black Hole isn't the place I'd choose for O'Connell's first game. My gut says Cassel's back with the team on Friday and he plays.)

 

[PatsFanSince74]

No. Even if the Steelers lose this week and next week, they can finish 11-5 by beating Cleveland in Week 17, and would beat us out for the wildcard based upon head-to-head.

You're right. I hadn't had my second cup of coffee yet.

 

[HEY BRO! WHAT UP?]

Wrong.

Did you even read the thread that you're posting in?

Those aren't the only situations.

You really must have been offended by my comments to give me a bad rep on my page. I listed the most realistic scenarios. Do you really think the Colts are going to lose 2 out of 3 games? The Titans are going to give them the last game of the season because the Titans will have home field locked up. Do you think the Dolphins and Jets will lose 2 out of 3 or even 3 games straight? Will Pittsburgh lose three straight? All of these are very unlikely. We will see who wins this arguement in three weeks. I will expect an apology if I'm right.

 

[jbb9s]

Well thanks to Jabar Gaffney and Dave Thomas for making this look so dim. Special call out to Dean Peas on the 3 and 15 soft zone.

 

[alamo]

I listed the most realistic scenarios. Do you really think the Colts are going to lose 2 out of 3 games? The Titans are going to give them the last game of the season because the Titans will have home field locked up. Do you think the Dolphins and Jets will lose 2 out of 3 or even 3 games straight? Will Pittsburgh lose three straight? All of these are very unlikely. We will see who wins this arguement in three weeks. I will expect an apology if I'm right.

Here, you write...

Here are the only ways the Pats make playoffs.

... and list two relatively likely, but not the only, scenarios. When called on your error, you say "I listed the most realistic scenarios" as if that absolves you from saying they were the *only* ones.

Yet in another thread you were complaining that the OP wasn't clear and it wasn't fair to you to have to figure out what he meant. Hmmmm.