BGC 2021 QB/PTP Thread

[Kontradiction]

This is something that today's QB's don't know how to do? Yikes.

A lot of college teams run spread offenses, or variations of it. They’re almost exclusively in the shotgun.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Absolutely. I don't think Fields will be successful as a pro, and I am very high on Lance, so I have pretty opposing opinions on the two.

Lsnce as a runner is probably better than fields. But is lance as a thrower better than fields?

 

[miloofcroton]

Lsnce as a runner is probably better than fields. But is lance as a thrower better than fields?

Oh, absolutely. Lance has the most natural throwing talent in the draft. The ball explodes out of his hands like it did with Josh Allen. His release is fast and efficient. He sees the field effectively — maybe not as well as Mac Jones, but it's still effective.

Fields, not at all. Not a great throwing talent at all.

 

[miloofcroton]

Compare/contrast the college throwing mechanics of Aaron Rodgers and Kellen Mond. I'm not saying Mond is Rodgers. I'm just saying you can see how much worse Rodgers used to be, and these were things that were correctable at the pro level.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Fields, not at all. Not a great throwing talent at all.

Curious how you can make a claim like this. Fields put up 41TDs/3INTs the year prior in a far tougher conference. I think he was graded with the most accurate deep and medium throws. Where is this misinformation coming from ?

 

[DropKickFlutie]

If my top 3 weren't available and I decided on taking a QB instead of something else...

Washington at 19 and the Bears at 20 are both risks, if you drop below them. I'd be okay with Mond at 15.

My hunch is that the Bears would love Mond, since he profiles so similarly to the Oregon QBs from a few years ago.

Absolutely not, crazy talk. Don't even consider Mond at #15. A guy whose weakness is "consistency" is a huge red flag. The fact he's texting with McDaniels, cross off this bust entirely now.

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[BaconGrundleCandy]

Oh, absolutely. Lance has the most natural throwing talent in the draft. The ball explodes out of his hands like it did with Josh Allen. His release is fast and efficient. He sees the field effectively — maybe not as well as Mac Jones, but it's still effective.

Fields, not at all. Not a great throwing talent at all.

Not picking on you bro but you're like 0-3 lately. Clemson offense, Mond at 15 and now this? You ok friend?

 

[BTTA]

A lot of college teams run spread offenses, or variations of it. They’re almost exclusively in the shotgun.

Yeah, I know. I was commenting on it being used to suggest that a player won't be as successful in the pros. It is an easy skill to pick up for any player that's athletic and smart enough to be a pro QB.

 

[JerseyShore99]

I'd argue the complete opposite. Lance is one of the most polished QBs at the top of the draft. He still has a lot further to go, but he knows how to do a lot of things that other QBs don't. Take snaps under center, play action fakes, call protections, full field reads, etc.

I think his lack of film is what alarms me and the fact it's against FCS competition

I actually prefer Lance to Fields myself, but I'll trust that if Belichick takes one, he'll be the guy

Lance has massive upside, particularly a good fit here for his accuracy and ability to protect the football

Fields worries me, although I don't entirely get his fall

 

[Ochmed Jones]

My review of mond is that he holds the ball a long time on non check down throws.

In the jumbo fisher offense, mond is only reading half the field on each drop back.

In college his receivers were no where near the quality of Alabama’s or ole miss receivers and I think that contributed greatly to his inconsistency.

I still have mills as the better qb, but mills not be there at 46. If we take mond, he is going to need a lot of development work. Maybe as much as two years.

If we take trask, he is going to need a year or two to develop arm strength!

 

[miloofcroton]

Not picking on you bro but you're like 0-3 lately. Clemson offense, Mond at 15 and now this? You ok friend?

I don't think he's going to transition well. I think all the hyperboles have been said. Slow to read, misses reads, quick to run, slow release, doesn't throw a tight spiral, throws a lot of softer throws despite his arm strength (he's a pure power thrower, with good arm strength but not much arm talent -- no whippiness or off platform ability), schemed a lot of simple throws by his college offense, misses a decent amount of throws.

I'm not saying he's straight up terrible. I'm knocking him down from being elite or 1st round grade. And at that point, there's a lot more competition.

I know, I know... But statistics say he gets off his first read more than 'x' player! That he stays in the pocket too much, not too little! And why do you care about a spiral? The slow release is just a myth. Those aren't soft throws; that's touch! His offense was more complex than Clemson's! Statistics say his accuracy is the best of everyone's!

I can hypothesize why stats might say something that my eyes don't agree with, but I trust my eyes first.

Btw, when I said he wasn't a great throwing talent, I meant everything encompassing throwing (not just arm talent). I get that was confusing.

 

[miloofcroton]

Curious how you can make a claim like this. Fields put up 41TDs/3INTs the year prior in a far tougher conference. I think he was graded with the most accurate deep and medium throws. Where is this misinformation coming from ?

Just watch the games. Go play by play, look at what the play was attempting to do, look at what the defense gave him, ask whether he made all the right decisions, ask whether all of his mechanics were efficient, ask what talents he displayed on the play. That's the only real way, in my opinion.

I think one of the main errors that people make when evaluating is looking at just the player instead of the play as well. The TV angle doesn't help. However, you can't contextualize what the player did and understand how good or bad it was until you understand the play.

I can share my breakdown from one of his games, if anyone's interested.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Just watch the games. Go play by play, look at what the play was attempting to do, look at what the defense gave him, ask whether he made all the right decisions, ask whether all of his mechanics were efficient, ask what talents he displayed on the play. That's the only real way, in my opinion.

I can share my breakdown from one of his games, if anyone's interested.

Yes share this. Will it be making dumb claims like Fields only has made 1st read throws or Mac Jones only made 50% of his 2nd read throws? A lot of bad analysis floating around these days. Multiple legit NFL scouts have said Fields has the best accuracy in the draft.

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[DropKickFlutie]

I don't think he's going to transition well. I think all the hyperboles have been said. Slow to read, misses reads, quick to run, slow release, doesn't throw a tight spiral, throws a lot of softer throws despite his arm strength (he's a pure power thrower, with good arm strength but not much arm talent -- no whippiness or off platform ability), schemed a lot of simple throws by his college offense, misses a decent amount of throws.

I'm not saying he's straight up terrible. I'm knocking him down from being elite or 1st round grade. And at that point, there's a lot more competition.

I know, I know... But statistics say he gets off his first read more than 'x' player! That he stays in the pocket too much, not too little! And why do you care about a spiral? The slow release is just a myth. Those aren't soft throws; that's touch! His offense was more complex than Clemson's! Statistics say his accuracy is the best of everyone's!

I can hypothesize why stats might say something that my eyes don't agree with, but I trust my eyes first.

Btw, when I said he wasn't a great throwing talent, I meant everything encompassing throwing (not just arm talent). I get that was confusing.

Mond's literal scouting report is slow reads and inconsistent, and you want him at 15? Maybe lay off the pipe this weekend. Mond's listed weaknesses are maybe the worst possible things that could be listed for a QB (like saying NKeal's only glaring flaw is separation as a WR)

 

[miloofcroton]

Mond's literal scouting report is slow reads and inconsistent, and you want him at 15? Maybe lay off the pipe this weekend. Mond's listed weaknesses are maybe the worst possible things that could be listed for a QB (like saying NKeal's only glaring flaw is separation as a WR)

Mond comes out of the gate with like 10 straight pro-level throws. I dare you to find an equivalent in Fields or practically any other QB in the draft.

Now, the rest of the game is more inconsistent, sure. I still see a lot more to work with here.

 

[Kontradiction]

Mond comes out of the gate with like 10 straight pro-level throws. I dare you to find an equivalent in Fields or practically any other QB in the draft.

Now, the rest of the game is more inconsistent, sure. I still see a lot more to work with here.

He was playing Vanderbilt.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Just watch the games. Go play by play, look at what the play was attempting to do, look at what the defense gave him, ask whether he made all the right decisions, ask whether all of his mechanics were efficient, ask what talents he displayed on the play. That's the only real way, in my opinion.

I think one of the main errors that people make when evaluating is looking at just the player instead of the play as well. The TV angle doesn't help. However, you can't contextualize what the player did and understand how good or bad it was until you understand the play.

I can share my breakdown from one of his games, if anyone's interested.

This is scary considering your recent thoughts on Clemson offense > OSU offense tbh. Not trying to pick on you but some of this analysis is just off. Appreciate the contributions though.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I can see Bacon can't retire anytime soon. Holy ****.

 

[miloofcroton]

This is scary considering your recent thoughts on Clemson offense > OSU offense tbh. Not trying to pick on you but some of this analysis is just off. Appreciate the contributions though.

Of everything I've said, I would put the least amount of weight behind my comments on Clemson. When there's a zero % chance that Lawrence drops from 1, there's no point in getting serious about evaluating him. I'm not spending mental cycles on that...

 

[miloofcroton]

Yes share this. Will it be making dumb claims like Fields only has made 1st read throws or Mac Jones only made 50% of his 2nd read throws? A lot of bad analysis floating around these days. Multiple legit NFL scouts have said Fields has the best accuracy in the draft.

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Justin Fields vs Michigan State, 2020

I picked this game at random. I just looked at his game log and tried to choose a game that wasn't an outlier in any way (not his best or worst game, not the first or last game of the year, not against the best or weakest competition), but this still ended up being a bit of an outlier due to some players being out from COVID. Notably, his center. I made note of the bad snaps early in the game, so I think we can try to look beyond that.

• 0:53 - Looks super cold, but slow ball manipulation to get it out. Soft throw with a defender coming, but the WR still has room to defend himself.
• 1:06 - Bad snap. I like the decision, but I don't like the throw way behind his receiver.
• 1:12 - PA, underthrown deep shot. The WR has to stop running to prevent a worse play.
• 1:34 - Bad snap, gets nervous in a clean pocket and runs it. Let the play continue.
• 1:56 - Another bad snap. Can't fault Fields, as it broke the play a bit more than the others. On the other hand, the pocket was clean when he ran. He makes a good run.
• 2:05 - Sprint left, toss it to the out. Good throw on the run. You're going to see this type of play a lot in this game.
• 2:14 - Has the tight end for a wide open touchdown and a clean pocket. He feels pressure and tucks it. His run saves him, but this is a missed read.
• 2:40 - Fields takes a totally busted tunnel screen and gets a first down out of it. He really didn't have time or space to continue the pass play because of the interior pressure.
• 3:30 - Better to throw it away than force a bad throw, but as the camera pans, it kind of looks like #11 was open. Hard to judge.
• 3:41 - This is one of his best runs on tape. He is a big, strong runner with decent speed, but he is a glider with just a decent top speed if we're comparing him to defenders. Not very twitchy or a blazer. I don't think he plays as though he runs a 4.3 or 4.4 40, if I'm being honest.
• 4:12 - The dig looks open on this. He misses it and tries to run, then gets smacked by a twisting rusher. This is a great example of how athleticism can't bail you out all the time, and you need to make good reads. This is the kind of play that makes you think the game is too fast for him.
• 4:27 - Sprint right, nice throw on the run over the CB. Good touch. The WR is WIDE OPEN though. So, not a super tight window.
• 6:16 - Double slant with a flat route against what looks like Cover 4. No flat defender. Identifies it quickly and throws a laser. If you can do this all over the field, taking easy throws, that's what I call rhythm passing. Routine play but important that your QB does these things.
• 6:56 - Throw is behind his WR and a little late getting there. It's a checkdown, but due to the TV angle, I have no idea if it was the right decision or not.
• 7:11 - He keeps the ball instead of throwing the screen again. This time, it seems like he could have gotten the throw off. He meets resistance but powers his way to a 1st down on a run. Should he have ran it? I think probably not, and that run defense would be much rougher on in the NFL.
• 7:48 - Bubble screen is covered well. He scrambles right, is indecisive on getting around his blocker, trips himself, stumbles around and falls. A throw away would have saved yards. **** happens though.
• 9:15 - Good throw on the RPO.
• 9:25 - Another sprint right and toss to the comeback route. Not bad. This throw is against a man blitz, which leaves the comeback even easier to hit, but the extra pressure isn't able to get home.
• 9:35 - Broken pass pro. His hot read (the right TE) MIGHT be open, but he goes out of view too soon. At least he throws it away and does a good job evading the rush. This is the brutal hit that he has to come back from just a couple plays later.
• 10:17 - Yet another busted screen. I thought OSU didn't run many screens? Correction: Fields doesn't get many yards from screens. Unrelated to the number of times they call screen plays. Screens are constraint plays, and if you just scramble during your constraint play, that doesn't count as a throw or yardage in a screen play, but that still counts against the max number of times you should be running a given constraint play in a game.
• 10:47 - Yet another busted screen.
• 11:07 - Solid rip on a hook. Could've been anticipated better, but there is some pressure in his face.
• 11:16 - Has a nice 1 on 1 on the top, and he tests it. It was 3rd and 2, and the WR doesn't catch it. Justified risk or missed opportunity? #5 looks open in the slot.
• 11:25 - Sprint right, hit the comeback. I've seen this before.
• 11:32 - Rips the speed out. I like this throw a lot more than the previous one because it's from the pocket.
• 11:42 - Great hustle. Love it.
• 12:10 - Bad snap, gets nervous, gets sacked. He moves into the rusher. That being said, the routes look well covered by the defense.
• 12:23 - Takes way too long to hit the dig. The WR is standing there for seconds before the ball arrives. The only potential excuse here is the ref may have gotten in the way and caused some miscommunication.
• 12:40 - Another screen. I like to see him execute this for once.
• 12:48 - Naked bootleg. A bit of a weak play action fake. #5 looks open on the crosser, but he runs it. He gets the first, but it's a dangerous play. The open crosser is the bigger, safer play.
• 13:32 - Drop your arm slot, slide a little, and hit the spot route! Not an easy throw per se, but you have to adapt to the pass rush. This is what the playmaking QBs are supposed to be able to do. Ok fine, good play by the D. Keep the play alive and look for a back of the endzone throw. #5 gets back there, but Fields is too slow to get away from the DT. Throw away.
• 14:10 - Nice evasion from the lookout block (LT screams: "Look out!"). On top of that, makes a good throw to the corner. I don't love how soft this throw is to the edge of the field, because it generally means a pick, but the receiver is open enough and the throw is accurate enough that it isn't a problem.
• 14:40 - Yet another busted screen. YABS. Takes the sack. At minimum, I would've liked to see a throw away.
• 14:50 - Takes way too long to get it out to his WR in the flat, who just runs a little 2 yard route, probably because the coverage is playing way off. Get the snap, set your feet, quick release.
• 15:02 - PA lob to a WR in 1 on 1 with safety help coming. I don't love the placement. Should be back shoulder to prevent the safety from making a play. Not a good throw against an NFL D.

Recap​

I count 4 sprint rollouts, 7 screens, 1 RPO. I'm not going to count the rest, but I will try to summarize. There is a large number of scrambles (often without need). I don't necessarily make note of every play in the game, so I probably skipped a few scrambles. I definitely skip most or all of the designed runs because it's like, we get it; he can run. Most of his throws are outs, deep lobs against 1 on 1, and a couple slants. Not a lot of variety. I can't recall a single time in this game that he threw with anticipation and led his guy open.