Ashton Jeanty @ 4?

[State]

NEVER pick a RB at #4 overall. I don't care if he's the next Derrick Henry. You let the Dallas Cowboys make mistakes like that.

RB is not a premium position in the NFL, and they wear down fast compared to other positions, you can constantly replenish and find good talents in the 4th-6th rounds. Stevenson himself was a 4th round pick. His replacement should be findable in that range.

True. But what if this kid is the next Walter Payton?

 

[State]

I know its blasphemy, but I don't completely hate the idea. I think I'd rather trade down from 4 than go that route.

I’m of the same thought. All by himself he’d improve the OL with his elusivene, leg power, and yards after contact. The Hogs would have a lot of fun blocking for him.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

who blocks hole for the RB?

 

[manxman2601]

who blocks hole for the RB?

The OL you sign in FA.

 

[JohnJH]

The OL you sign in FA.

In theory (as most things are), you're correct. And they NEED to address the OL with MAJOR improvements, not just for pass protection, but for run blocking.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

The OL you sign in FA.

yeah but who? the OT market is usually not great and I would be surprised if Stanley and Jackson would be available. Good RB's are cheap in FA, Barkley costs like 11-13 Mio or something per year. A great Edge/DT or OT at 4 would be much better usage of ressources imo

 

[manxman2601]

yeah but who? the OT market is usually not great and I would be surprised if Stanley and Jackson would be available. Good RB's are cheap in FA, Barkley costs like 11-13 Mio or something per year. A great Edge/DT or OT at 4 would be much better usage of ressources imo

I disagree on OT because the value just isn't there. As for EDGE/DT, I agree. I have Carter ahead of Jeanty and Graham probably with a marginal edge over him. Jeanty is my 4th highest ranked prospect though.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I disagree on OT because the value just isn't there. As for EDGE/DT, I agree. I have Carter ahead of Jeanty and Graham probably with a marginal edge over him. Jeanty is my 4th highest ranked prospect though.

I wouldn’t select any ot at 4 either but I wouldn’t stay at 4 anyway if a solid offer is on the table because I think there is some good value in 20-40 range

 

[BobDigital]

When it comes to RBs. I have 1 question i ask first... and it is the most important. Are they REALLY good at catching the ball and making things happen that way. If yes.... depending on how well they do everything else, there can be talk about using a high pick on them. If not... I don't care. Not picking them.

The fact of the matter is a run play is inherently inferior to a pass play. That is a fact. It is not a fact at all times, in all situations. But it is the case when speaking broadly. The average yards per rush is about 4.4 in the NFL. The average yards per pass. 6.7. Meaning a pass is 50% better than a run on average. Add in variance between plays of sometimes going under or over your expected average and it makes the case against the run even stronger. You can't settle for an average of 4.4 YPP. Even if you never get a penalty, Even if your RB is a machine who can rush 60 times every game... or you have 2 or 3 equally good reliable RBs to split the work load with... Cause sometimes within a 3 or 4 sample you will hit unders over and over. And with a 4.4 average your margin of error is SO much lower.

This is why an RB who is a great (not good) pass catcher is so inherently more valuable. So i guess I have to ask... Is he a great pass catcher? Not good but great?

 

[bakes781]

When it comes to RBs. I have 1 question i ask first... and it is the most important. Are they REALLY good at catching the ball and making things happen that way. If yes.... depending on how well they do everything else, there can be talk about using a high pick on them. If not... I don't care. Not picking them.

The fact of the matter a run play is inherently inferior to a pass play. That is a fact. It is not a fact at all times, in all situations. But it is the case when speaking broadly. The average yards per rush is about 4.4 in the NFL. The average yards per pass. 6.7. Meaning a pass is 50% better than a run on average. Add in variance between plays of sometimes going under or over your expected average and it makes the case against the run even stronger. You can't settle for an average of 4.4 YPP. Even if you never get a penalty, Even if your RB is a machine who can rush 60 times every game... or you have 2 or 3 equally good reliable RBs to split the work load with... Cause sometimes within a 3 or 4 sample you will hit unders over and over. And with a 4.4 average your margin of error is SO much lower.

This is why an RB who is a great (not good) pass catcher is so inherently more valuable. So i guess I have to ask... Is he a great pass catcher? Not good but great?

Get ready to watch Woody Marks then.

 

[BobDigital]

Get ready to watch Woody Marks then.

Just looked up his stats... didn't watch any highlights... but 83 catches and only 502 yards in a year? How does that happen. While receptions are great, such a consistently low YPC is a red flag. It isn't just about good hands but making stuff happen after the catch.

And since I am saying random stuff anyway.. Whats the deal with all the Graham love? I mean, yes he seems like a very good player. I like his highlights. Seems very strong at the point of attack and pushes the pocket. But if he is so good, why doesn't he have more sacks? Last year he had 3.5. I know sacks aren't everything but they are not nothing. They are an indicator of sorts. I want my DT in the top 4 to be a Aaron Donald or Chris Jones... or at least a poor mans version of that. Why would i pick a DT in the top 5 if they are not a GREAT pass rusher or at least have a chance to be a great one. Yes... run blocking and getting pressure is nice. But where is the finish?

And yes... Donald and Jones put up good sack numbers in college... Jones not till his last year, but he popped then. Quinnen Williams went pick 3. I'm totally cool with that. Guy got 8 sacks his final year. He not only collapses the pocket, but finishes. definitely feels disruptive in a way a guy like Vita Vea or other pocket pushers but not typically finishers just aren't. It looks and feels different to me. And i have serious concerns about using the 4th pick on a guy who isn't that. I'd rather use it somewhere else.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I wouldn’t select any ot at 4 either but I wouldn’t stay at 4 anyway if a solid offer is on the table because I think there is some good value in 20-40 range

Not sure what you're suggesting here; I can't see any team willing to make a huge jump up in this draft, especially from past 20 up to 4. I also don't think Vrabel and Wolf want to trade that far down, either.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Just looked up his stats... didn't watch any highlights... but 83 catches and only 502 yards in a year? How does that happen. While receptions are great, such a consistently low YPC is a red flag. It isn't just about good hands but making stuff happen after the catch.

And since I am saying random stuff anyway.. Whats the deal with all the Graham love? I mean, yes he seems like a very good player. I like his highlights. Seems very strong at the point of attack and pushes the pocket. But if he is so good, why doesn't he have more sacks? Last year he had 3.5. I know sacks aren't everything but they are not nothing. They are an indicator of sorts. I want my DT in the top 4 to be a Aaron Donald or Chris Jones... or at least a poor mans version of that. Why would i pick a DT in the top 5 if they are not a GREAT pass rusher or at least have a chance to be a great one. Yes... run blocking and getting pressure is nice. But where is the finish?

And yes... Donald and Jones put up good sack numbers in college... Jones not till his last year, but he popped then. Quinnen Williams went pick 3. I'm totally cool with that. Guy got 8 sacks his final year. He not only collapses the pocket, but finishes. definitely feels disruptive in a way a guy like Vita Vea or other pocket pushers but not typically finishers just aren't. It looks and feels different to me. And i have serious concerns about using the 4th pick on a guy who isn't that. I'd rather use it somewhere else.

It depends on the defensive system and the technique the DT is playing. You can have an all world DT like Richard Seymour and he's never going to average double digit sacks in the Patriots system under BB. He's still an extremely valuable player.

Now I don't know the complete rundown on Graham but I did notice that his arms only measured 32" long and he weighed in at only 296 instead of 320 at the combine. I'm worried more about his ability to be stout against the run and shed blocks because of these physical shortcomings than his college stats which seem to suggest he was used more as a hold the gap run stopper than as a pass rusher.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I know I'm going to get flamed for this post but here goes anyway...

I was watching Trevor Sikkema and Connor Rogers of NFL Draft Exchange breaking down Daniel Jeremiah's mock and they spent a brief time talking about how high Jeanty could go and they made a reasonable argument for Jeanty going to NE at 4.

Before I outline both my and their arguments for the proposition, I think two things need to have happened in the draft:

1. Both Carter and Hunter need to have been taken in the top 3
2. There aren't many good trade down opportunities

The arguments for:

1. Vrabel's experience with Derrick Henry at the Titans

2. My belief that Vrabel/McDaniels will run a heavy play action offense next year and you need a threat at RB to make that work.

3. If Hunter and Carter are off the board, there's a very real case to be made that Jeanty is BPA.

4. Jeanty has a game changing skillset, more so than any other player remaining on the board.

5. The defense will, to some extent, fix itself. I expect the influence of Vrabel will improve the quality of the defense before the addition of any other players. In addition there will be players coming back from injury including, hopefully, Barmore.

6. Jeanty's threat in RPOs and play action will make Drake Maye's job easier.

7. Jeanty and Maye are a helluva' two headed weapon to build this offense around.

8. Gives the offense a real identity.

I can see the arguments against - strong RB class, the value of RBs, Jeanty vs Mason Graham and who is the BPA, a weak OL is a reason not to draft a RB so high and I'm sure many more that I will no doubt hear about.

I've been thinking about what happens if Hunter and Carter are off the board. I struggle to see many reasons why teams would give up serious draft capital to trade up to 4, and I'm not keen on taking Campbell at 4, which leaves Graham, Jeanty or McMillan as the only real alternatives. I'm not there yet on Jeanty over Graham but I am starting to see the arguments for it.

As I have said in other posts, I’m not advocating for taking Jeanty at 4, but I agree with your points as to why he would be a good pick. In the scenario you outlined I would rather see them trade back and take Tyler Warren, then trade up for one of Conerly, Hampton, or Golden.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I would lose my mind if we took a running back at 4.

I would throw my TV through the window if they took N’Keal MacMillen.

 

[203Pat]

I would throw my TV through the window if they took N’Keal MacMillen.

I'd would be a hair less irate but still pissed if we took another jump ball receiver especially at 4.

 

[Love The Drake]

I would throw my TV through the window if they took N’Keal MacMillen.

He has more big play ability than Harry, I think he maybe more Evans than Harry.

 

[manxman2601]

He has more big play ability than Harry, I think he maybe more Evans than Harry.

Yeah I don't really get the hate for McMillan. Would we not want a receiver who would be deadly in the RZ?

 

[Huckleberry1]

He has more big play ability than Harry, I think he maybe more Evans than Harry.

He had the most contested catches in college football. He can’t get separation in college, so he’s not going to get it in the pros. He’s been sliding in draft rankings and instead of running at the Combine to show that the concerns about him weren’t valid he blew it off, probably because he would have run 4.6 +. Of all the possible first round picks he is definitely the worst one they could make.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yeah I don't really get the hate for McMillan. Would we not want a receiver who would be deadly in the RZ?

Because he can’t get separation, and the goal is to reduce Mayes interceptions going forward, not having him throw into coverage all day. If they want a great red zone target they should trade back and take Warren. He’s bigger and much better than MacMillen.