And so the Super Bowl QB Carousel begins

[BobDigital]

It occured to me we are about to see something nearly absolutely unprecedented. We are about to see a salary cap NFL absent Tom Brady and absent a lot of great QBs. Before Brady came into the league, there was a last gasp of the old guard with Elways and Young (kind of... but I won't get into that) winning some of the first salary cap super bowls. We also saw some future greats like Farve and Warner, who while not all time greats, had HOF level talent. They were mostly able to hold it down, while the one of the all time Ds stole one for one of the worst SB winning QBs of all time in Dilfer. Since that time, while at points the QB field in the middle has been weak, overall the top was very solid. Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Ben, Wilson... Occasionally the rare non-HOF guys like Eli, Flacco and Foles stole one when things fell their way and they got hot, but overall the top tier of QBs has held it down.

We are about to see what the NFL has truly wanted every since we went to a hard cap. A league where it is more wide open. Where any team truly has a good chance any year. As I look around in this league now, I ask myself, which are the great QBs gate keeping the promised land?

Mahomes? Sure. Wilson? I guess. Allen? Maybe he is at that level? Rodgers? Seems like he already missed his best chances and i doubt he will have as good of ones again. It's clear at the very least that for the first time the top crop of QBs in the NFL looks unable to truly keep the 2nd tier guys out like QBs of the past could. Both Stafford and Burrow getting in (while good, they aren't great) as a sign of this.

I think for a time we are about to see an NFL where HOF QBs don't dominate the big game like they use to. This is what the NFL wanted, but I wonder if it is good or bad for the game. While this last game was competitive, it didn't feel like a super bowl play wise. There were a number of splash plays but it seems like a lack of excellence from either side from the QB spot brought the over all entertainment value down.

 

[Pape]

i think we are entering a stretch where everybody will be trying to keep up with the Joneses...

 

[jdlboot14]

You might be right. Stafford might be the start of a run on established franchise QB's changing teams.
These are the vet starters that COULD be moving this year - Rogers, Jimmy G, Wilson, Watson, Winston, Tannehill, Bridgewater...

But what should be learned this postseason is that it's NOT all about the QB. Brady, Rogers, Allen, Mahomes were bounced earlier than expected because of OL or D issues. Bengals O got hot late, but their D got them to the SB. Rams O was good - primarily Kupp - but their D won the SB.

 

[jah]

After seeing Josh Allen's most recent 2 games, I'm pretty comfortable placing him in the top tier.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

I like these sort of topics..a sort of "what did we learn?" after the Super Bowl has concluded.

One thing that kept popping into my head leading up into the big game after the conference championships, was that there were two teams who more or less have been assembled in a way that is polar opposite to what we are used to.

If anything this postseason was more of a realization and wake up call for me that things can be done differently.

What's the old saying...Adapt or die? No I'm not hoping that Bill Belichick just starts copying what the Bengals did and starts drafting offensive skill positions often and early... And I'm not hoping that we start trading away multiple future assets for one or two years of veteran play..

However I think that there is a lesson learned in all this and that we should adapt a bit...

Food for thought.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Shortsighted league QB analysis. We have way too little data Mahomes & Allen aside on which new young QBs such as Herbert et. al. could become cream of the crop. Despite media hype for other guys, most of the the 21st century was a Brady-Manning world until Manning retired & Mahomes emerged.

 

[The Boston Patriot]

While this last game was competitive, it didn't feel like a super bowl play wise. There were a number of splash plays but it seems like a lack of excellence from either side from the QB spot brought the over all entertainment value down.

I agree completely. It was a good game but there didn't seem to be any drama and the broadcasting team was so awful that neither could enhance the game with it. It was like nobody hated either team and everybody were 'friends'. Participation trophies for everyone!

 

[Captain Cliche]

Recently watched the SB on Game Pass. Not sure how to put it into words...

Neither team looked dominant. LA had absolutely no ground game. After Beckham went down they limped to a win on Kupp's back.
Anyone still miss Sony??

Bengals have a swarming D that completely shut down LA's limp-ass running game. However, Stafford had plenty of time back there. They have an obviously porous secondary. Everyone on the planet knew they were going to Kupp.
Their O-line sucks ass. Burrow had almost no time back there and got sacked a ton. He did an admirable job of generating anything.

I guess what I'm trying to say is parity sure looks a lot like mediocrity to me.

I was thinking...if the defense didn't crap their pants at the end of the season, they could hang with these guys.

I'm especially encouraged with the Pats running game. A 2-headed monster. It would be great if they added a 3rd down back that wasn't primarily a special teams player. Bolden did an admirable job, but he ain't it. They have a history of always having that guy. I'm afraid James White is done and JJ ain't it.

I don't care if it's a passing league. That first game against the Bills was one for the books. Good luck stopping both Harris and Stevenson.

Homer Alert:
Watching the SB, The Pats aren't that far off.

 

[Triumph]

Brady left the door open for a comeback.

If you truly are done you leave no doubt that its over. Until the retirement papers are signed and delivered, Brady will be back.

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

We might enter a super team era


Also, you NEED receivers. You just can't get by with no names. For all the talk about rule changes and how you can't play defense anymore.... skill and play design matters on offense arguably more than ever.

That Cincinnati game also showed how much Mahomes relied on those two points: the Cheifs run a spread coast scheme where Kelce and Hill literally read the defense for Mahomes.

And you NEED arm strength. Technically, MOST great QBs have always had it, but nowadays it matters more so in an age where everyone moves faster.

If the Pats wanna compete, Bill needs to get it right on reciever, and Mac needs get as much out of his arm as possible.

 

[Ring 6]

It occured to me we are about to see something nearly absolutely unprecedented. We are about to see a salary cap NFL absent Tom Brady and absent a lot of great QBs. Before Brady came into the league, there was a last gasp of the old guard with Elways and Young (kind of... but I won't get into that) winning some of the first salary cap super bowls. We also saw some future greats like Farve and Warner, who while not all time greats, had HOF level talent. They were mostly able to hold it down, while the one of the all time Ds stole one for one of the worst SB winning QBs of all time in Dilfer. Since that time, while at points the QB field in the middle has been weak, overall the top was very solid. Peyton, Brees, Rodgers, Ben, Wilson... Occasionally the rare non-HOF guys like Eli, Flacco and Foles stole one when things fell their way and they got hot, but overall the top tier of QBs has held it down.

We are about to see what the NFL has truly wanted every since we went to a hard cap. A league where it is more wide open. Where any team truly has a good chance any year. As I look around in this league now, I ask myself, which are the great QBs gate keeping the promised land?

Mahomes? Sure. Wilson? I guess. Allen? Maybe he is at that level? Rodgers? Seems like he already missed his best chances and i doubt he will have as good of ones again. It's clear at the very least that for the first time the top crop of QBs in the NFL looks unable to truly keep the 2nd tier guys out like QBs of the past could. Both Stafford and Burrow getting in (while good, they aren't great) as a sign of this.

I think for a time we are about to see an NFL where HOF QBs don't dominate the big game like they use to. This is what the NFL wanted, but I wonder if it is good or bad for the game. While this last game was competitive, it didn't feel like a super bowl play wise. There were a number of splash plays but it seems like a lack of excellence from either side from the QB spot brought the over all entertainment value down.

I don’t know about that.
Aside from Brady the last 10 SB winning QBs are

Stafford not HOF
Mahomes
Files. Not HOF
Manning A shadow of himself who they won despite of
Wilson only really considers a top QB because of 2 trips to SB that were mostly led by the D
Flacco. Not HOF
Eli NOT HOF
Rogers
Brees
Roethlisberger

That’s as many decent not great QBs as great ones.
It’s already been happening, Brady and his trans are the anomaly.

It’s a circular argument to say Eli is a Hall of Famer because he won SBs then say HOF QBs dominate SB wins.

Remove Brady and his teams from the equation and you see that the best team sometimes has one of the best QBs and other times not.

It’s been almost 30 years since anyone other than Brady won 3 or more.

 

[jal]

From 2001-2020, 14/20 SBs featured Brady or Peyton. Big Ben accounted for 3 more (Rodgers, Brees overlapped the first three 1x each and Warner, Wilson 2x). Mahomes was in another that didn’t feature them. So that’s 18/20 SBs with at least one HOF qb. The exceptions were 2002 (TB-Oak) and 2012 (SF-Balt). So, usually there’s at least one HOF QB in every SB.

Not counting Eli as a HOF, 25/40 QB SB slots were occupied by HOF QBs, counting him it’s 27/40. Eli is the only non-Tier 1 QB to make the SB multiple times in that period. So generally you can make and even win the SB without a Tier 1 QB but it’s not likely you can do it more than once. These HOF QBs won 15/20 SBs (17 if you count Eli).

In the 90s every SB featured at least 1 HOF QB as well. 13/22 QB SB slots from 1990-2000 were taken by a HOF QB. These QBs won 8/11 SBs.

Of course part of what determines HOF is making and winning the SB; it’s a bit of a circular observation. But fair to say each of those HOF QBs had great careers even without the rings (again, excepting Eli). Who knows which of the current crop will be in the HOF but I’d expect Mahomes, Allen, and whomever other consistent top QBs emerge to be in a few more SBs based on that trend. Just based on history it’s not likely we are entering a free for all period.

As for this year, maybe it’s an exception like 2002 or 2012, or maybe Burrow (or Stafford now that he’s not on the Lions) becomes a consistently great QB.

All this underscores the fact that we really really need Mac to become a great QB if we are expecting to be a consistent contender that wins multiple rings in the next decade plus (duh). It’s always been a QB league and retirement of Brady and Manning won’t change that.

 

[holyredeemer]

I like these sort of topics..a sort of "what did we learn?" after the Super Bowl has concluded.

One thing that kept popping into my head leading up into the big game after the conference championships, was that there were two teams who more or less have been assembled in a way that is polar opposite to what we are used to.

If anything this postseason was more of a realization and wake up call for me that things can be done differently.

What's the old saying...Adapt or die? No I'm not hoping that Bill Belichick just starts copying what the Bengals did and starts drafting offensive skill positions often and early... And I'm not hoping that we start trading away multiple future assets for one or two years of veteran play..

However I think that there is a lesson learned in all this and that we should adapt a bit...

Food for thought.

I think what we learned is that defense still very much matters.

 

[TheRazorsEdge]

I think what we learned is that defense still very much matters.

Absolutely ..I never forgot that , still the key to championships.

 

[jal]

Another way to look at it, most HOF QBs had a roughly 10-13 year stretch of success (excepting Brady of course) where their talent coincided with a strong enough team to at least reach the conference championship:

- Peyton 2003-2015: 2 rings, 4 SBs made, 6 conf champion games, supercharged by switching teams in middle
- Montana 1981-1990: 4 rings, 4 SBs made, 6 conf championship games (1 more later with Chiefs)
- Elway 1986-1998: 2 rings, 5 SBs made, 6 conf championship games, rebuilt team in early-mid 90s
- Aikman 1992-1995: 3 rings, 3 SBs made, 4 conf championship games - cut short by injury and Jerrah
- Favre 1995-2007: 1 ring, 2 SBs, 4 conf championship games (1 more conf champ game later with Vikings)
- Big Ben 2004-2016: 2 rings, 3 SBs made, 5 conf championship games
- Warner 1999-2008: 1 ring, 3 SBs made, 3 conf championship games (switched teams to reload, started older)
- Rodgers 2010-2021: 1 ring, 1 SB made, 5 conf championship games
- Brees 2006-2018: 1 ring, 1 SB made, 3 conf championship games
- Young 1992-1998: 1 ring, 1 SB made, 4 conf championship games (started older)
- Marino 1984-1994: 0 rings, 1 SB made, 3 conf championship games
- Jim Kelly 1989-1995: 0 rings, 4 SBs made, 5 conf championship games

Still some time to play out for
- Wilson 2012-21: 1 ring, 2 SBs made, 2 conf championship games (probably done)
- Mahomes 2018-2021: 1 ring, 2 SBs made, 4 conf championship games

Maybe Mahomes is more like Aikman (and what appears to be the case for Wilson) with a short run with a single core, or maybe Chiefs reload sometime in a few years to have a second run. Most of the QBs got that second run. He’s probably got another 5-8 years of contention if they do manage to reload after this core ages out.

For fun - Brady had TWO of these crazy runs
Brady 2001-2007: 3 rings, 4 SBs made, 5 conf championship games
Brady 2011-2020: 4 rings, 6 SBs made, 9 conf championship games (WTF - most dominant stretch ever, and it’s only half of his career)

 

[jal]

At any given point there are ~4-5 HOF QBs active and still playing like HOF

Second half 80s: Montana, Marino, Elway, Kelly
First half 90s: Aikman, Young, Kelly, Marino, Elway
Second half 90s: Favre, Young, Elway, Aikman
First half 00s: Brady, Manning, Warner, Favre
Second half 00s: Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Warner
First half 10s: Brady, Manning, Rodgers, Brees, Big Ben
Second half 10s: Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Brees

Right now Mahomes, Allen look like they can play at that level for awhile. Rodgers maybe a few more years but probably not 5 more. Maybe Wilson can find a groove again. But we are likely short only 1-2 great QBs to emerge from the Burrow, Herbert, Dak, Watson, Lamar, rookies (Mac, Trevor, Fields) and next couple of draft classes. There aren’t going to be 3-5 more HOF tier QBs that are going to show up.

 

[Patnation21]

Take a look at how many great young QB's the league has now. Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers in the elite group. Followed in no particular order, Herbert, Burrow, Watson, Lamar, Wilson, Prescott, Murray, Stafford That's probably the top 11 and 8 of them are all under 27. It's not easy picking a top 10. You could argue Mac Jones is somewhere in there but IMO he's just outside the top 10 right now. We still have Cousins, Wentz, Tannehill, Carr, Tua, Hurts, Jimmy G. Plus we don't know how good Lawrence, Fields, Zach Wilson will be. Daniel Jones might improve as well with the help of Daboll. Probably forgetting a few.

The AFC in particular is going to produce some really good playoff games in the coming years, it's actually already started this year with Mahomes and Allen. Lamar will be back next year and its only a matter of time till Herbert gets the Chargers to the playoffs. Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow and Lamar are all in the top 7 or 8 IMO and all are in the AFC. If Mac Jones get better and cracks the top 10 you can add another QB. Watson might end up in the AFC as well which would be insane. Its going to be a dog fight to get to the SB in the AFC that's why securing the number 1 seed will become even more important.

 

[Guts]

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

one of the all time Ds stole one for one of the worst SB winning QBs of all time in Dilfer

McMahon