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I'm amazed how much effort people must put into a post to research starting field position etc. and then argue vociferously about it.

Anyway, I'm glad they're at the top, but home field advantage didn't do much for them the past two years. I am hoping...watching the steelers though, if big ben is back he is tough to beat. Then of course if they do make it to the SB, how to beat NO or GB?
 
How does 24.88 compare to other teams? If the average is 26.15 then the difference would seem insignificant.


But it isnt the 20 vs the 30. Since you have the Pats # and ranking, please post the other numbers, such as average to add some perspective.

Oh, sorry, meant to re-post a link along with my comments. Any time I make reference to per-drive stats, the information is from this page at football outsiders. (Drive stats are unrelated to FO's bread and butter metrics like DVOA and DYAR.)

Time of possession is a function of BOTH offense and defense. In this case it is very arguable that the stat you are trying to prove as more significant (yards allowed) is the exact reason this fact is skewed.
If the Patriots allow fewer drives because they are on the field longer by allowing more yards and first downs, then you cannot say that their points allowed have less value, because the way they play defense is a big reason they face fewer drives.
Thats not to say that allowing more yards is a positive, but its pretty easy to see that if you do allow more yards each possession will take up more clock and you will face fewer possessions.
This negates your implication that the yards per game is even worse because it is the exact reason they have faced fewer possessions.

First off, I'm not really arguing on behalf of yardage stats so much as I am pointing out that both yard and point stats have other factors one needs to take into account, and that neither can be said to really tell a whole yet unadulterated story.

Now, regarding your supposition of a "clock control" defense...

I see what you're saying about allowing more yards per possession leading to fewer possessions, and thus making it redundant to say that the Pats' yards allowed/game looks worse for having faced fewer drives.

That said, I think you can still very much discount the value of the Pats' points/allowed per game because of the fewer drives faced. If your team's style of play results in fewer drives per game, than you would naturally expect both your team and its opponents to score fewer than average points. Essentially, by making opportunities to score points - for both sides - more scarce, you are inflating the value of each point scored.

This is why per-drive stats are much more illuminating than per-game stats. Per-game stats contain an unknown variable that per-drive stats allows you to adjust for.

But again, if my defense allows 8 drives that average 4 minutes a piece and allows 21 points and 350 yards and yours allows 10 drives that average 3.2 minutes and you allow 21 points and 300 yards, points per drive isnt really relevant. My defense allowed 50 more yards that didnt result in points and took up 6.4 minutes extra on those drives while you cut the drives shorter and faced more drives.
Surely there may be other implications, but your stats are certainly conflicting with each other.
You can't say if one style of defense leaves you on the field longer results in fewer drives and the same number of points it should be compare per drive to a defense that faces more drives but allows just as many points.

Again, this is actually an argument against per-game stats and for per-drive stats. Per-game stats are hard to compare with one another because they are influenced by both team's style of play. Per drive stats are a simple metric that measures how effective your team was, on average, at stopping opponents from scoring during their possessions.

It doesn't matter if there were a lot of drives or a little, since teams alternate possessions, what you're able to do (or keep your opponent from doing) in the drives allotted is what counts.
 
I agree with that, but was just pointing out that some analysts do give you reasoning why they think they aren't good.

I am talking analysts in general. I was responding to the post that stated every analyst says that the defense isn't any good. I said a lot of analysts are just empty suits. Just like any other profession, there are guys who are spectacular at their job, some good, some average, and some you wonder why they even are employed.
 
Excellent opportunity to point out why ignoring yards but focusing on only a couple of things is a bad idea. Does anyone really think the Patriots are the second best defense in the NFL and that the Jets are the best?

Translation

I'm brilliant because...........

I ignore the only thing that matters in winning and losing.
 
And criticism like that tends to be much more valid than the knee jerk blanket "omg they suck" takes we get in the first quarter every week here. It would be impossible to argue that this is a good defense or that they don't have a host of problems because they clearly do, unfortunately so much of the criticism lacks any analysis or context that it simply comes across as a neverending stream of b.tching and moaning, and when a team wins as consistently as this one does that becomes really old and tiresome. I am much more interested in what they have to do to pull out a Championship run and what they need to do going forward to address the defense because that's what really matters, not just crying for the Party Starter and james Sanders.

Much as I love the draft and the time leading up to it I usually wait until late February and March to start looking at prospects, this year I am already looking at what little is out there because they have so many needs, which is really odd for a team winning as much as they have the past 2 seasons.

Why do you think it's impossible to argue that the defense is "good"?

Good is subjective. By definition, that's not objective.

There are three types of people who would find it impossible:

People who are clueless about evaluating.

If you honestly think Chad Henne, Jason Campbell, Vince Young, Mark Sanchez, and Dan Orlovsky had "career days"; you belong under this banner.

People are not clueless but use clueless evaluation methods.

Fixation on things like the 1st quarter in Denver, Indy's "comeback", and Washington are excellent indications you belong under this banner.

People want to be clueless so they torture every non fact to prove it.

I would name the clowns......I mean....... posters who lurk here. The moderators get mad when they get called out so I refrain.

The reality is the three best teams have the three "worst" defenses. Measurements need to be adjusted to reconcile that fact.

It's not the measurements, it's how they are being measured.
 
Why do you think it's impossible to argue that the defense is "good"?

.

Because they are middle of the pack in points against, last in yards against, last in big plays against, and have allowed some really poor QB's to march up and down the field against them. Feel free to make the argument they are a good defense, can't wait to see it.
 
Because they are middle of the pack in points against, last in yards against, last in big plays against, and have allowed some really poor QB's to march up and down the field against them. Feel free to make the argument they are a good defense, can't wait to see it.

Please refer to the bolded part above.

I'm not aware of this. Who exactly are these "poor" QB's?
 
Please refer to the bolded part above.

I'm not aware of this. Who exactly are these "poor" QB's?

Chad Henne, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Vince Young to name a few.

Go ahead and make the argument they have a good defense, still waiting for it and i have answered your questions each time.
 
Please refer to the bolded part above.

I'm not aware of this. Who exactly are these "poor" QB's?

Chad Henne: 416 yards
Ryan Fitzpatrick: 369 yards
Jason Campbell: 344 yards
Mark Sanchez: 306 yards
Vince Young: 400 yards
Dan Orlovsky: 353 yards
Rex Grossman: "only" 252 yards but we all saw how well he played

I mean, all of these guys must be All-Pro, right?

EDIT:

Also, I think you're the guy that argued Pats D=Ravens D because the Steelers offense did similarly well in back-to-back weeks. Going by your logic, check this out:

Orlovsky vs Pats: 30/37 353 yards 2 TD 1 INT
1 week later vs Ravens: 17/37 136 yards 1 TD 1 INT
 
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Chad Henne, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Vince Young to name a few.

Go ahead and make the argument they have a good defense, still waiting for it and i have answered your questions each time.


The thing is three of the four (Henne, Orlovsky, and Young) got most of their yards in garbage time. If you want to argue the Pats' defense has a real problem letting up after they have gained huge leads, then yes these guys are perfect examples of that. These three QBs all got around or over 200 yards each in the fourth quarter with the Pats pretty much having insurmountable leads.

One thing that was brought up on 98.5 today is although the Pats are first in giving up passing plays of 20 plus yards, they are the tenth best in giving up the fewest passing plays of 40 plus and their biggest passing play allowed (58 yards) is the second least. That says the Pats are all about allowing teams to move down the field, but not give up the big scoring plays.
 
Chad Henne, Dan Orlovsky, Rex Grossman, Vince Young to name a few.

Go ahead and make the argument they have a good defense, still waiting for it and i have answered your questions each time.

Please refer my first post.

You belong in group one. The clueless group.

Anybody who honestly thinks that a "career day" consists of racking up stats in the 4th quarter while getting blown and the game decided has ZERO business evaluating anything.

You "think" this because you foolishly place the greatest emphasis on the most meaningless and irrelavent portion of these games.

It's fundamentally that fundamental.

What next?
 
The thing is three of the four (Henne, Orlovsky, and Young) got most of their yards in garbage time. If you want to argue the Pats' defense has a real problem letting up after they have gained huge leads, then yes these guys are perfect examples of that. These three QBs all got around or over 200 yards each in the fourth quarter with the Pats pretty much having insurmountable leads.

One thing that was brought up on 98.5 today is although the Pats are first in giving up passing plays of 20 plus yards, they are the tenth best in giving up the fewest passing plays of 40 plus and their biggest passing play allowed (58 yards) is the second least. That says the Pats are all about allowing teams to move down the field, but not give up the big scoring plays.


While 3-4 did get significant yards late they also put up big yards early, Henne, Grossman, and Young and their offenses all put up big numbers in the first half as well.

I have been standing up for the D all year to the extent possible but the idea that they are actually a good defense is pretty far out there. i'll hold out some hope they can go back to a 3-4 and come up with a play-off run of acceptable D but i don't see how anyone can argue it is a good defense this season.

If people take issue with that then make the argument that it's a good D, the forum is wide open.
 
Please refer my first post.

You belong in group one. The clueless group.

Anybody who honestly thinks that a "career day" consists of racking up stats in the 4th quarter while getting blown and the game decided has ZERO business evaluating anything.

You "think" this because you foolishly place the greatest emphasis on the most meaningless and irrelavent portion of these games.

It's fundamentally that fundamental.

What next?

you say an argument can be made that this is a good defense but refuse to make it, i'm not the one who is "clueless." Unlike you i gave the reasons it isn't, you give nothing but hyperbole. Make the argument, or shut up about it, either is fine with me.

C'mon tough guy, let's see it.
 
Chad Henne: 416 yards

Got 189 yards in the final 8 minutes after the Pats went up 31-17.


Ryan Fitzpatrick: 369 yards
Legitimate gripe

Jason Campbell: 344 yards

Got 99 yards of those in a meaningless TD drive at the end of the game when the game was out of reach.


Mark Sanchez: 306 yards

100 of those yards came after Sanchez was intercepted by Nink midway through the fourth bringing the score to 37-16.


Vince Young: 400 yards

104 of those yards came in the fourth quarter after the Pats got a 38-13 lead.

Dan Orlovsky: 353 yards

The Colts had something like 140 total yards until the 4th quarter where the Pats were up 31-3. Orlovsky got something like 250 yards in garbage time in the fourth when the Pats made wholesale changes on both sides of the ball.

Rex Grossman: "only" 252 yards but we all saw how well he played

Only guy listed here who actually played well when the opposing team had a chance to win the game.

I mean, all of these guys must be All-Pro, right?


They aren't All Pros and the Pats made most of these guys look average or like scrubs until the game was out of reach to pad their stats.

You see the Pats purposely do this for the doom and gloomers who don't understand football so they can biatch.
 
I'm amazed how much effort people must put into a post to research starting field position etc. and then argue vociferously about it.

Anyway, I'm glad they're at the top, but home field advantage didn't do much for them the past two years. I am hoping...watching the steelers though, if big ben is back he is tough to beat. Then of course if they do make it to the SB, how to beat NO or GB?

Question: Is there ever a time to actually enjoy?
 
While 3-4 did get significant yards late they also put up big yards early, Henne, Grossman, and Young and their offenses all put up big numbers in the first half as well.

I have been standing up for the D all year to the extent possible but the idea that they are actually a good defense is pretty far out there. i'll hold out some hope they can go back to a 3-4 and come up with a play-off run of acceptable D but i don't see how anyone can argue it is a good defense this season.

If people take issue with that then make the argument that it's a good D, the forum is wide open.


Both Henne and Young had one or two good drives at the beginning of the game and then were shutdown until garbage time in the game. Neither had very good games until the game was out of reach.

That is one of the other big real (and not just created by stats sheet analysis) weaknesses of this defense. They have consistently come out flat and got spanked on opening drives and sometimes the entire first quarter.

I do know the defense hasn't given up more than total 7 points in the third quarter in the last 5 or 6 games. In that time span, the Pats have outscored opponents 62-7.
 
Things are looking good, if they can close the deal and win the conference the Patriots won't have to get on a plane until February when they fly to Indy.

Over a month of sleeping in their own bed... pretty sweet deal for the players.

12/24 - vs. Miami (Home)
1/1 - vs. Buffalo (Home)
1/7 - Wildcard - BYE
1/15 - Divisional Playoff (Home)
1/22 - Conference Championship (Home)
2/5 - Superbowl (Indy)

Thought about this some more and am more amazed, it is unheard of for an NFL team to spend 30+ days at home during the season. Lets hope their kids and wives don't drive them crazy.
 
Please refer my first post.

You belong in group one. The clueless group.

Anybody who honestly thinks that a "career day" consists of racking up stats in the 4th quarter while getting blown and the game decided has ZERO business evaluating anything.

You "think" this because you foolishly place the greatest emphasis on the most meaningless and irrelavent portion of these games.

It's fundamentally that fundamental.

What next?

Henne threw for 416 yards. Of those, 101 came in "garbage time". At 5:55 of the 4th quarter, the score was NE 31, Mia 17, and the Dolphins had the ball on the NE 1 yard line. The previous play, Miami scored a TD but the call was reversed and the ball was placed on the 1. They were inches from cutting the lead to 1 touchdown with nearly 6 minutes left. So in just over 3 1/2 quarters, Henne threw for 315 yards.

Young threw for 400 yards. Garbage time began in that game at the 11:27 mark of the 4th quarter, when NE went up 31-13. From that point on, Young threw for 123 yards, meaning that for just over 3 quarters, Young threw for 277 yards. *VINCE YOUNG* threw for 277 yards. Guess how many 277+ passing yard games Young has had in his career. I'll tell you: 3. In 60 career games. So just twice in his career besides that game had he ever thrown for 277 yards.

Orlovsky threw for 353 yards. Garbage time began with about 4:08 left in the 3rd quarter when the Pats went up 31-3. From that point on, Orlovsky threw for 252 yards, meaning that before then, for nearly 3 quarters, the Pats held Orlovsky to just 101 yards passing. So you're 100% correct about this one.

But the other two? No, you're wrong. Young and Henne both threw for a ton of yards when the game was still in question and most definitely not in garbage time.
 
Please refer my first post.

You belong in group one. The clueless group.

Anybody who honestly thinks that a "career day" consists of racking up stats in the 4th quarter while getting blown and the game decided has ZERO business evaluating anything.

You "think" this because you foolishly place the greatest emphasis on the most meaningless and irrelavent portion of these games.

It's fundamentally that fundamental.

What next?

Well, then sign me up for your "clueless" group, because it is quite obvious that the Pats defense has had troubles throughout the year and Henne, Orlovsky, VYoung, Grossman, etc. HAVE torched the defense (and not just in the second halves).

I'm often labeled a homer here and I have defended the defense consistently, believing that it was a work in progress. A week and a half ago I saw the game in person at FedEx and that defense was a shambles. The Skins were missing their only 2 outstanding offensive players - - Fred Davis and trent Williams. Roy Helu ran right over it. That was an OT game had Santana Moss not played shuffleboard at the end. The Broncos ran over it in the first half then inexplicably (perhaps because McGahee was out by then) went away from it. Give the Pats D and ST's credit in one very important area - - they DO create turnovers - - and that was the story for the Broncos game

All along I said 'wait 'til Chung and Spikes are back'. Well now Andre Carter is down, and we'll see how healthy Chung and Spikes are.

I still think in today's NFL this team could very well go all the way with the offense making up for the defense - - that's what Green Bay and New Orleans are doing. The great defenses (Pitt, Balto, etc.) conveniently have offenses and QB's that can very well be stopped (Flacco for lack of talent and Roethlisberger for lack of brains).

People on both sides are making silly over-generalizations to buttress their points.

The fact that the Pats have a subpar defense does not eliminate them from chances for a 4th SB. However, being willfully blind, at this point, to the fact that it is the team's weakness is your choice.

This D is not good. But the O is great enough to compensate. They have every bit of a chance as GB or NO has, and I think, the best chance in the AFC.

I await your wrath.
 
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Both Henne and Young had one or two good drives at the beginning of the game and then were shutdown until garbage time in the game. Neither had very good games until the game was out of reach.

That is one of the other big real (and not just created by stats sheet analysis) weaknesses of this defense. They have consistently come out flat and got spanked on opening drives and sometimes the entire first quarter.

I do know the defense hasn't given up more than total 7 points in the third quarter in the last 5 or 6 games. In that time span, the Pats have outscored opponents 62-7.


I think the late yards argument can be made to argue that the patriots defense isn't as bad as the the biggest critics make it out to be but I don't see how oit makes the argument they have a good defense, which is what this part of this argument has been about. I said it is impossible to make the argument this is a good defense and to this point not one person has been able to make the argument it is. If someone makes that argument then i'll read it and respond but so far other than Pitt throwing an incoherent tantrum no-one has even tried.
 
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