WaterfallJumper
Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2009
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Let's dig into the postmortem so that we can turn our sights to a successful 2020.
I'll offer general thoughts in the first post, then update each reserved entry below to discuss the players one by one. Overall, I'm extremely pleased with the players we added to the roster, so I'll limit the discussion to what we did, rather than what we didn't (i.e., draft/trade for a TE or premium DT). Other threads will certainly cover that topic, probably more thoroughly than I could.
It's no secret that we were thin at receiver going into the 2019 draft. We've debated the merits of a 1st round receiver ad nauseum, with multiple smart posters on each side of the discussion. I was convinced that WR was very much in play, specifically a player who could take snaps as a big slot as well as at X. Look at the top receivers by yards for the last two years, and you'll see that other than exceptional route runners or speed guys, most of the top results are big-bodied players who threaten middle of the field, the seam, and can dominate on jump balls in the red zone. Harry fits that mold, although I'll break down why I thought he would be the specific choice when I get to his post. I didn't think he'd be available, but I was ecstatic that the board turned out the way that it did!
2018:
2017:
My thoughts on Williams are well documented: 2019 draft retrospective and notes on 2020
I have been interested in a safety for a few years now, since I think it's essential to start training someone for Devin McCourty's role. I liked Justin Reid last year, who had a fantastic rookie season for Houston, but we eschewed the safety position again in 2019. Maybe. I'm wondering if Ken Webster can make the same transition that Devin did. Webster has good tackling skills and excellent explosive traits.
Keep this in mind for next year: late in the 7th, the Patriots often take a shot at a corner with exceptional athletic traits, or character issues:
Darryl Roberts
Keion Crossen
Ken Webster
Alfonzo Dennard
New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
An OL double dip seemed more likely to me than a TE double dip, although I wasn't opposed to either. In fact, I would have been happy with Warring/Wesco, or Oliver/Sample, etc. With the uncertainty surrounding Wynn, Cannon, Thuney, a swing tackle, and so on, adding a tackle and C/G seemed prudent to many of us. I wasn't some prescient sage standing against the tide of public opinion on this one, but it's still gratifying to know that we were on the right track. I'm quite pleased with the players we added to the roster; I'll break them down individually in their respective posts.
Prior to the draft, I mentioned several times that I didn't see a spot on the depth chart for a DT/DE relative to where we were drafting. My assumption was that the top players would all go much higher in the first round than anticipated and that we would be out of options along the DL at 32 for a day 1 starter. Of course I would have loved to draft Ferrell or Lawrence, but we had no shot. Realistically, we could have traded up for Jerry Tillery or Montez Sweat, or taken Trysten Hill or Zach Allen with one of our second round picks, but that's about it.
Winovich had probably the best combination of traits, production, athleticism, character, and value of the remaining players. I was on record saying I kept coming back to him as a dark horse at 32, simply due to the scarcity of top EDGE players by that point in the draft, so I was very happy with drafting him at 77. In a similar way, I had a suspicion that after signing Pennell, we were more likely to look for a pass rusher than another fatty (though I wanted Big Dex). Byron Cowart in the 5th makes a lot of sense after missing out on some of the top players. He's strong against the run and can play inside/outside. He's a 3- to 7-tech player for the Patriots, although classic 5-tech might be his best position. Very excited about his development!
Where I excelled
Overall, this year I had a good finger on the pulse of what the Patriots were looking for -- not only in a macro sense, but also specific players. I can't recall when I've ever had a higher hit rate on exact names and positions. Additionally, when I look at the players drafted or signed post-draft by the Lions, Dolphins, Texans, and Titans (all teams with front office or coaching ties), I see that almost every player on my final big board / shortlist is accounted for. That's encouraging to me. The Patriots will still surprise us all with how they go about trading and drafting, but I do feel that I've cracked the code in terms of the type of player they want to target.
What I missed
After Bolden re-signed, running back seemed like less of a need. I thought we may try to stash Bryce Love or Rodney Anderson for next year or pick up a power back in UDFA. I love the Harris pick, however. For the last two years I've thought he was the most consistent Alabama running back. He's consistent, tough, disciplined; great vision, strong pass protection, soft hands. This is one of the few picks that surprised me, not because of the player (Harris definitely made my PTP shortlist), but because of the relatively early investment.
I did not expect a top 100 running back, although perhaps it should have been obvious. I should have listened to the excellent logic that @Hammer of Thor pointed out here: What Pick Would Surprise You But...
I didn't want a QB, although I understood the wisdom of maintaining the pipeline of QBs in training. I specifically had Stidham on a list of QBs I didn't like. But rather than assume I know more than the Patriots braintrust, I'll use this as an opportunity to try to learn what they look for in the quarterback position at the college level. Neither Etling nor Stidham seemed like PTP to me. Look for more discussion in the Stidham post, since there are more positives than I thought at first.
Bailey made me chuckle at first, but as more astute minds have pointed out, securing an inexpensive specialist for 4 years vs paying far more for Allen for only a single year seems like good business. If Bailey can win a puting job or even threaten for a kicking job, then this is a slam dunk.
2020 prognosis
We should compete for a Super Bowl again this year. Even if Brady retires after this season instead of playing until he's 45 (I think he will play), we're set up well for the future with a strong core of young players and 13 more picks next year. We'll likely look to retool the TE corps in 2020, and I wouldn't rule out adding more receivers, since only Harry is signed for more than 1 - 2 years, but we have a great mix of youth and experience at numerous positions. The future looks bright!
@manxman2601 @BobDigital @BaconGrundleCandy @sircole @everlong @patchick @Snooky97 @long distance @captain stone @mgteich @Clonamery @DaBruinz @ctpatsfan77 @mrscruff @cstjohn17 @oceansizer @Patriot Missile
Apparently I can't @ any more people, so I apologize if I left your name off; I just started to list names I've read posting in the draft forum regularly, and I skipped quite a few worthy participants. I'd welcome your thoughts as we gear up for next year!
- N'keal Harry
- Joejuan Williams
- Chase Winovich
- Damien Harris
- Yodny Cajuste
- Hjalte Froholdt
- Jarrett Stidham
- Byron Cowart
- Jake Bailey
- Ken Webster
I'll offer general thoughts in the first post, then update each reserved entry below to discuss the players one by one. Overall, I'm extremely pleased with the players we added to the roster, so I'll limit the discussion to what we did, rather than what we didn't (i.e., draft/trade for a TE or premium DT). Other threads will certainly cover that topic, probably more thoroughly than I could.
It's no secret that we were thin at receiver going into the 2019 draft. We've debated the merits of a 1st round receiver ad nauseum, with multiple smart posters on each side of the discussion. I was convinced that WR was very much in play, specifically a player who could take snaps as a big slot as well as at X. Look at the top receivers by yards for the last two years, and you'll see that other than exceptional route runners or speed guys, most of the top results are big-bodied players who threaten middle of the field, the seam, and can dominate on jump balls in the red zone. Harry fits that mold, although I'll break down why I thought he would be the specific choice when I get to his post. I didn't think he'd be available, but I was ecstatic that the board turned out the way that it did!
2018:
2017:
My thoughts on Williams are well documented: 2019 draft retrospective and notes on 2020
I have been interested in a safety for a few years now, since I think it's essential to start training someone for Devin McCourty's role. I liked Justin Reid last year, who had a fantastic rookie season for Houston, but we eschewed the safety position again in 2019. Maybe. I'm wondering if Ken Webster can make the same transition that Devin did. Webster has good tackling skills and excellent explosive traits.
Keep this in mind for next year: late in the 7th, the Patriots often take a shot at a corner with exceptional athletic traits, or character issues:
Darryl Roberts
Keion Crossen
Ken Webster
Alfonzo Dennard
New England Patriots All-Time Draft History | Pro-Football-Reference.com
An OL double dip seemed more likely to me than a TE double dip, although I wasn't opposed to either. In fact, I would have been happy with Warring/Wesco, or Oliver/Sample, etc. With the uncertainty surrounding Wynn, Cannon, Thuney, a swing tackle, and so on, adding a tackle and C/G seemed prudent to many of us. I wasn't some prescient sage standing against the tide of public opinion on this one, but it's still gratifying to know that we were on the right track. I'm quite pleased with the players we added to the roster; I'll break them down individually in their respective posts.
Prior to the draft, I mentioned several times that I didn't see a spot on the depth chart for a DT/DE relative to where we were drafting. My assumption was that the top players would all go much higher in the first round than anticipated and that we would be out of options along the DL at 32 for a day 1 starter. Of course I would have loved to draft Ferrell or Lawrence, but we had no shot. Realistically, we could have traded up for Jerry Tillery or Montez Sweat, or taken Trysten Hill or Zach Allen with one of our second round picks, but that's about it.
Winovich had probably the best combination of traits, production, athleticism, character, and value of the remaining players. I was on record saying I kept coming back to him as a dark horse at 32, simply due to the scarcity of top EDGE players by that point in the draft, so I was very happy with drafting him at 77. In a similar way, I had a suspicion that after signing Pennell, we were more likely to look for a pass rusher than another fatty (though I wanted Big Dex). Byron Cowart in the 5th makes a lot of sense after missing out on some of the top players. He's strong against the run and can play inside/outside. He's a 3- to 7-tech player for the Patriots, although classic 5-tech might be his best position. Very excited about his development!
Where I excelled
Overall, this year I had a good finger on the pulse of what the Patriots were looking for -- not only in a macro sense, but also specific players. I can't recall when I've ever had a higher hit rate on exact names and positions. Additionally, when I look at the players drafted or signed post-draft by the Lions, Dolphins, Texans, and Titans (all teams with front office or coaching ties), I see that almost every player on my final big board / shortlist is accounted for. That's encouraging to me. The Patriots will still surprise us all with how they go about trading and drafting, but I do feel that I've cracked the code in terms of the type of player they want to target.
What I missed
After Bolden re-signed, running back seemed like less of a need. I thought we may try to stash Bryce Love or Rodney Anderson for next year or pick up a power back in UDFA. I love the Harris pick, however. For the last two years I've thought he was the most consistent Alabama running back. He's consistent, tough, disciplined; great vision, strong pass protection, soft hands. This is one of the few picks that surprised me, not because of the player (Harris definitely made my PTP shortlist), but because of the relatively early investment.
I did not expect a top 100 running back, although perhaps it should have been obvious. I should have listened to the excellent logic that @Hammer of Thor pointed out here: What Pick Would Surprise You But...
I didn't want a QB, although I understood the wisdom of maintaining the pipeline of QBs in training. I specifically had Stidham on a list of QBs I didn't like. But rather than assume I know more than the Patriots braintrust, I'll use this as an opportunity to try to learn what they look for in the quarterback position at the college level. Neither Etling nor Stidham seemed like PTP to me. Look for more discussion in the Stidham post, since there are more positives than I thought at first.
Bailey made me chuckle at first, but as more astute minds have pointed out, securing an inexpensive specialist for 4 years vs paying far more for Allen for only a single year seems like good business. If Bailey can win a puting job or even threaten for a kicking job, then this is a slam dunk.
2020 prognosis
We should compete for a Super Bowl again this year. Even if Brady retires after this season instead of playing until he's 45 (I think he will play), we're set up well for the future with a strong core of young players and 13 more picks next year. We'll likely look to retool the TE corps in 2020, and I wouldn't rule out adding more receivers, since only Harry is signed for more than 1 - 2 years, but we have a great mix of youth and experience at numerous positions. The future looks bright!
@manxman2601 @BobDigital @BaconGrundleCandy @sircole @everlong @patchick @Snooky97 @long distance @captain stone @mgteich @Clonamery @DaBruinz @ctpatsfan77 @mrscruff @cstjohn17 @oceansizer @Patriot Missile
Apparently I can't @ any more people, so I apologize if I left your name off; I just started to list names I've read posting in the draft forum regularly, and I skipped quite a few worthy participants. I'd welcome your thoughts as we gear up for next year!
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