2007 AFC Schedule Analysis

[Metaphors]

Obviously my opinion, but may give some insight into what the AFC may look like come playoff time. Mainly for fun since injuries play a huge part in a team's success and can't account for those.

I ranked the teams from 1 - 32 (my own power rankings which makes the whole exercise subjective) and looked at the ranking of each opponent on a team's schedule. Didn't factor for home vs. away, which is important but didn't want to complicate things. Then looked at the following:

Mean = Average ranking of all opponents
Median = Median ranking of all opponents
Contenders = Number of teams played with legitimate playoff chances (I chose teams 1-18 in the ranking)
Elite = Number of elite teams played (I chose teams 1-6 in the rankings)
Tough Stretch = A stretch of 3 or more games vs. contending teams
Own Bye = Evaluation of when the team's bye week hits
Opp. Bye = Evaluation of any teams played coming off a bye week

I'll do each division in a separate post. Remember...just for fun and hopefully will be of some interest.

 

[Metaphors]

AFC East

Bills

Mean: 13.6875
Median: 12
Contenders: 11
Elite: 3

Tough Stretch: DEN, @PIT, @NE, NYJ, DAL, BAL, @NYJ, CIN
Own Bye: A little early but they need it after that killer opening stretch.
Opp. Bye: Both MIA and NE play BUF after a bye.

Analysis: This is a nasty schedule and playing division opponents off of their byes just after a killer 1st half stretch is just unfair. It is just piling on when they get Denver and Jacksonville while the Jets get Kansas City and Tennessee. They need to survive the first 11 games (6-5?) and take advantage of an easier closing stretch. Wouldn't hold my breath.

Dolphins

Mean: 15.5
Median: 15
Contenders: 9
Elite: 2

Tough Stretch: @PHI, @PIT, NYJ, @BUF, BAL, @NE, CIN
Own Bye: Excellent position, right before their killer closing stretch
Opp. Bye: None

Analysis: The anti-Buffalo with a workable 1st half followed by a killer 2nd half. They need to be in excellent shape (6-2?) coming out of the bye to have a chance. New coach + New scheme + New QB = No shot.

Jets

Mean: 16.75
Median: 19
Contenders: 7
Elite: 2

Tough Stretch: None to speak of.
Own Bye: Solid, at the midpoint of season right before a couple of contending teams.
Opp. Bye: PHI gets a bye before playing the Jets.

Analysis: Aside from Philly getting a bye before playing the Jets, this is an amazingly positive schedule. The tough games are broken up by easier ones making it easier to prevent a losing streak. If they can stay healthy and focused, the Jets should contend. The NE games will obviously determine if the Jets challenge for the division, so week #1 is critical.

Patriots

Mean: 15.25
Median: 15
Contenders: 9
Elite: 2

Tough Stretch: PHI, @BAL, PIT, NYJ
Own Bye: Excellent, get healthy and rested right before their tough 2nd half stretch.
Opp. Bye: None

Analysis: A very workable schedule but will require consistency early (@NYJ, SD, @CIN). If they can come out of the bye solid (6-3?) they have 4 of their next 6 at home. Potential for an extended winning streak heading into playoffs.

 

[Metaphors]

AFC South

Titans

Mean: 14.5624
Median: 11
Contenders: 10
Elite: 4

Tough Stretch: @JAX, IND, @NO and CAR, JAX, @DEN, @CIN
Own Bye: Way too early but does give them a breather after tough opening games
Opp. Bye: None

Analysis: Just a rough schedule with 2 grueling stretches...and those don't even include SD and Indy. Can't see how they can approach the level of success they enjoyed last year with the supporting cast Vince has.

Texans

Mean: 16.8125
Median: 18
Contenders: 8
Elite: 5

Tough Stretch: DEN, @IND, JAX
Own Bye: Good, just after the mid-point
Opp. Bye: SD gets a bye before playing HOU...not that they need it.

Analysis: I actually like their schedule. The last 3 are no fun, but there are 8 winnable games to be found before then. If Schaub proves to be capable, look for Houston to be the surprise team in the playoff hunt before settling for .500.

Jaguars

Mean: 17.375
Median: 21.5
Contenders: 7
Elite: 5

Tough Stretch: @IND, CAR, @PIT
Own Bye: Way too early, no help at all
Opp. Bye: Ouch...Indy gets a bye before coming to Jacksonville.

Analysis: No problems with this schedule. They do play the top teams (Indy twice, SD, @DEN, @NO) and have a 3 game roadtrip in the middle of the season...but unless the QB situation implodes the offense, there are too many wins on this schedule to keep the Jags out of the playoffs.

Colts

Mean: 17
Median: 19
Contenders: 8
Elite: 5

Tough Stretch: @JAX, @CAR, NE, @SD
Own Bye: Solid, before the showdown at Jacksonville and subsequent tough games
Opp. Bye: CAR has a bye before hosting the Colts

Analysis: Similar comments as with Jacksonville. Enough wins to feel confident about playoffs, but JAX could challenge for the division. The bye before the game at JAX is huge and could be the difference in the division.

 

[Metaphors]

AFC North

Browns

Mean: 15
Median: 15.5
Contenders: 12
Elite: 1

Tough Stretch: @STL, SEA, @PIT, @BAL
Own Bye: Right before their tough stretch
Opp. Bye: SEA has a bye before visiting the Browns

Analysis: Browns just aren't good enough to take advantage of a beneficial schedule, and their schedule isn't that helpful anyway. Very few chances for a winning streak which will limit how far they can progress. "With the #2 pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the Cowboys select..."

Steelers

Mean: 14.625
Median: 14
Contenders: 12
Elite: 2

Tough Stretch: Let's just say, thank God for Cleveland...
Own Bye: Just before they go to DEN...
Opp. Bye: ...except that DEN also has a bye...along with the Jets and BAL.

Analysis: Getting 3 contenders coming off a bye is just not fair, especially when one negates your bye advantage. Pitt is a good team and could have a good season, but their are not enough gimmes in this schedule for the new coaching staff to build up much success.

Ravens

Mean: 14.1875
Median: 15.5
Contenders: 12
Elite: 3

Tough Stretch: @SD, NE, IND
Own Bye: Helpful, right before they go to PIT
Opp. Bye: Buffalo has a bye before hosting Ravens

Analysis: Same as Steelers and will likely be enough to keep the Ravens from the playoffs. They will be lucky to split their final 6 so they need to be hot (7-3?) coming out of the first 10. The Bengal games are key and makes the week #1 game at CIN huge for them.

Bengals

Mean: 17.8125
Median: 16.5
Contenders: 10
Elite: 1

Tough Stretch: @PIT, STL, @SF
Own Bye: Too early, no help at all except recovering from NE game.
Opp. Bye: None

Analysis: It definitely paid to finish in 2rd place last year. Like the Jets, the Bengals get KC and TEN while the Steelers get DEN and JAX. The schedule is very kind (including a trip to South Beach in December). I don't particularly like the Bengals but this schedule has division-winner written all over it.

 

[Metaphors]

AFC West

Raiders

Mean: 16.75
Median: 22
Contenders: 7
Elite: 6

Tough Stretch: IND, @JAX, SD
Own Bye: Too early, but comes before trip to SD (what? it couldn't hurt).
Opp. Bye: CHI has a bye before visiting the Black Hole.

Analysis: Like the Texans, they could see some progress this season with a good number of winnable games. Games against the elites (SD twice, DEN twice, CHI, IND) restricts the upside though. Look for positives but it may not show in the win total.

Chiefs

Mean: 15
Median: 11
Contenders: 9
Elite: 6

Tough Stretch: @SD, JAX, CIN
Own Bye: Middle of season, nothing special
Opp. Bye: Both JAX and CIN have byes before visiting...yuck.

Analysis: Here is my "What the hell happened" team. Despite getting the NFC Norris and OAK twice, this is not a schedule for breaking in a new QB with an unhappy (and currently invisible) star RB. While it won't be a disaster, it won't be pretty.

Broncos

Mean: 18.4375
Median: 22.5
Contenders: 6
Elite: 4

Tough Stretch: JAX, @IND, SD
Own Bye: Fine, just before PIT visits
Opp. Bye: PIT and GB get byes before visiting in back-2-back weeks.

Analysis: Easiest schedule in the conference. Once they get by their tough stretch, trips to CHI and SD are the only bumps in the road. Broncos just need to stay healthy and keep Cutler from turning into Jake Plummer and their playoff ticket is punched.

Chargers

Mean: 17.6875
Median: 22.5
Contenders: 7
Elite: 5

Tough Stretch: IND, @JAX, BAL
Own Bye: OK, maybe a little early.
Opp. Bye: OAK gets a bye before visiting (more time to check out the zoo)

Analysis: Cupcakes all over the schedule. They can sleepwalk through December except for a visit from DEN. New coaching staff may be enough to let DEN close the gap, so the Oct. game at DEN is the one to watch.

 

[Metaphors]

Playoff Teams?

Looks to me like the division winners will be fairly predictable, but each should face challenges. NE, Indy and SD should repeat. I like Cincy to be the only new division winner. The Jets, Jags and Broncos should be in contention and will likely battle for the wildcards. Baltimore and Pitt are good enough but can't overcome their schedules. So something like:

Pats
SD
Indy
Cincy
Broncos
Jags (beating out Jets on a tie-breaker)

 

[Flying Fungi]

:eat2: too.many.numbers.but.nice.effort

 

[rabthepat]

Re: Playoff Teams?

Looks to me like the division winners will be fairly predictable, but each should face challenges. NE, Indy and SD should repeat. I like Cincy to be the only new division winner. The Jets, Jags and Broncos should be in contention and will likely battle for the wildcards. Baltimore and Pitt are good enough but can't overcome their schedules. So something like:

Pats
SD
Indy
Cincy
Broncos
Jags (beating out Jets on a tie-breaker)

Interesting info, thanks. I jumped of the Marvin Lewis bandwagon last year and I think their defense may cause them to come up short again this year.

 

[Metaphors]

Re: Playoff Teams?

Interesting info, thanks. I jumped of the Marvin Lewis bandwagon last year and I think their defense may cause them to come up short again this year.

I'm with you on the Bengals. Part of the reason I look at the schedule is because of my bias against certain teams. I don't think Cincy or the Jets are that good, but their schedules seem to point them towards successful seasons. I do like both the Steelers and Ravens, but can't see how they can navigate their schedules to anything more than 9-7.