Investing in the OL

[One-If-By-Sea]

BTW, here is the Pats draft investment in the OL this decade:

2020: IOL Mike Onwenu (6/182), OL Justin Herron (6/195), OC Dustin Woodard (7/230)

2021: OL William Sherman (6/197)

2022: IOL Cole Strange (1/29), IOL Chasen Hines(6/210), OT Andrew Stueber (7/245)

2023: OC Jake Andrews (4/107), OL Sidy Sow (4/117), IOL Atonio Mafi (5/144)

2024: OL Caedan Wallace (3/68), IOL Layden Robinson (4/103)

2025: OT Will Campbell (1/4), IOL Jared Wilson (3/95), OT Marcus Bryant (7/220)

2026: OT Caleb Lomu (1/28), OT Dametrious Crownover (6/105)

Prior to 2025, an awful lot of throwing sh*t at the line and hoping something would stick.

Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Mafi (RFA), Wallace, Robinson, Campbell, Wilson, Bryant, Lomu, and Crownover are all still in the NFL. If you are looking to draft guys that remain in the NFL that is a 71% hit rate. That is a lot of **** sticking to the wall.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is correct. Every position is not ranked equally. OL is critical.

Rank them. I'll let you know if you are correct.

Very rough, but for me:

1. QB. We are fortunate, we have the best young QB in the NFL. Drake Maye is the most valuable property in the NFL.

2a. OL. You have to protect the
QB, give him time, keep him upright, keep him healthy. OT > IOL, but the OL needs to operate as a unit.

2b. DL, both IDL and EDGE. You need to put pressure on the other team's QB, and stop the run. Internal pressure more difficult to counter than outside pressure.

3. Secondary. Outside CB > nickel and S, but the unit needs to work well at all levels.

4. TEs. Force multipliers and Queens on the chessboard.

5. WRs.

6. LBs.

7. RBs.

I am not diminishing any unit. Good or great LBs can be the glue that makes a great defense, and versatile RBs who can rush, catch and block are almost as valuable as a true Y-TE. But generally, 1-3 are the units that can dominate to the point of winning a SB, especially when you have more than one of those 4.

Connecting this to the OP, my goal is not to plug a hole at RG. It is to build the most talented, athletic, versatile and deepest OL in the NFL to protect and optimize the ability of the most valuable commodity in the NFL: Drake Maye. That requires more than just a mid-round investment in an adequate RG.

RG is often considered the least important position on the OL and the easiest to fill, but many teams have put their best lineman there, including 1st round picks like David DeCastro and Quinton Nelson. I want the equivalent of 2 healthy AVTs at LG and RG.

 

[mayoclinic]

Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Mafi (RFA), Wallace, Robinson, Campbell, Wilson, Bryant, Lomu, and Crownover are all still in the NFL. If you are looking to draft guys that remain in the NFL that is a 71% hit rate. That is a lot of **** sticking to the wall.

I qualified before 2025. 6/12 picks from 2020-2024 are still currently active (Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Robinson and Wallace). 50%. Onwenu has been the most productive of the bunch. Strange has lived up to his name: so athletic, but injuries took a huge toll.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I qualified before 2025. 6/12 picks from 2020-2024 are still currently active (Onwenu, Strange, Andrews, Sow, Robinson and Wallace). 50%. Onwenu has been the most productive of the bunch. Strange has lived up to his name: so athletic, but injuries took a huge toll.

Strange and Campbell might end up being a bit similar? Very athletic but struggle with power rushers? Campbell was injured in his rookie year.

 

[mayoclinic]

I sure hope not.

 

[JoeSixPat]

The Pats have used the #4 and 28 picks on offensive tackles Will Campbell and Caleb Lomu in the 2025 and 2026 drafts. They also drafted Cole Strange at 29 overall in 2022. That's 3 out of 7 1st round picks this decade. Manx has threatened to become a Jets fan if they draft OT in the first round in 2027 (I'd go with the Dolphins, they just drafted Jacob Rodriguez, Will Kacmarek and Kyle Louis).

To be clear, I do NOT want to draft another top-100 OT in 2027, unless (1) he is projected to move inside, or (2) Will Campbell ends up moving inside. And I do not want to spend our 1st round pick on OL, unless the value is ridiculous.

But I DO want us to continue investing in the OL. It is vitally important. 2026 will answer a lot of questions, but at this time I'd make continuing the OL buildout the main offensive priority in what should otherwise be a defense focused draft.

As @JoeSixPat has noted in another thread:



So how much is too much to invest in the OL? Let's look at what some other teams have done this decade in the 1st round:

- Baltimore: 2022 OC Tyler Linderbaum (25), 2026 IOL Olaivavega Ioane (14)
- Carolina: 2022 OT Ikem Ekwonu (6), 2026 OT Monroe Freeling (19)
- Cleveland: 2020 OT Jedrick Wills (10), 2026 OL Spencer Fano (9)
- Dallas: 2022 OT Tyler Smith (24), 2024 OT Tyler Guyton (29), 2025 IOL Tyler Booker (12)
- Detroit: 2021 OT Penei Sewell (7), 2026 OT Blake Miller (17)
- Houston: 2022 IOL Kenyon Green (15), 2026 IOL Keylan Rutledge (26)
- LA Chargers: 2021 OT Rashawn Slater (13), 2022 IOL Zion Young (17), 2024 OT Joe Alt (5)
- Miami: 2020 OT Austin Jackson (18), 2026 OL Kadyn Proctor (12)
- Minnesota: 2021 OT Christian Darrisaw (23), 2025 OL Donovan Jackson (24)
- New Orleans: 2020 OC Cesar Ruiz (24), 2022 OL Trevor Penning (19), 2024 OL Taliese Fuega (14), 2025 OT Kelvin Banks (9)
- NY Giants: 2020 OT Andrew Thomas (4), 2022 OT Evan Neal (7), 2026 OL Francis Mauigoa (10)
- NY Jets: 2020 OT Mekhi Beckton (11), 2021 OL Alijah Vera-Tucker (14), 2024 OT Ola Fashanu (11), 2025 OT Armand Membou (7)
- Pittsburgh: 2023 OT Broderick Jones (14), 2024 OT Troy Fautanu (20), 2026 OT Max Iheanachor (21)
- Seattle: 2022 OT Charles Cross (9), 2025 IOL Grey Zabel (17)
- Tampa Bay: 2020 OT Tristan Wirfs (13), 2024 OC Graham Barton (26)
- Tennessee: 2020 OT Isaiah Wilson (29), 2023 OL Peter Skoronski (11), 2024 OT JC Latham (7)

So including the Patriots, 17/32 teams have taken 2 or more 1st round OLs this decade. Many teams have taken back to back 1st tound OLs (the Falcons also took 2 in 2019), and used their 1st round pick on OL 3 out of 4 years. 25% (8/32) took 1st round OLs 3 or more years so far this decade.

The league values OLs, they have a relatively high 1st (and 2nd) round success rate, and they seldom reach FA. It's good investment policy.

The Pats are finally catching up in investing in the OL. Unless they get lucky again in FA (Ikem Ekwonu and Broderick Jones may reach FA this year due to injuries), expect them to continue to invest in the OL.

Great research!

I'd throw in a caveat that it depends on the draft and where you are picking

I'm generalizing but if you have a Top 10 pick and you have a high need (QB or key defensive player) then you can be somewhat confident that you'll get a starter no matter which position you pick.

If you are drafting later in the 1st round (or 2nd) the likelihood of finding that pro bowl starter start dropping - but less so with OL

With any luck we'll be drafting at #32 for all foreseeable future drafts, making OL a great place to draft for maximum ROI!

 

[sg14]

RG is often considered the least important position on the OL and the easiest to fill, but many teams have put their best lineman there, including 1st round picks like David DeCastro and Quinton Nelson. I want the equivalent of 2 healthy AVTs at LG and RG.

The second half of your first sentence above essentially contradicts the first half.

Also belive i have read that the RG is harder to find. With predominantly right handed QBs it makes sense that the most athletic players are on the left in college.

???

 

[mayoclinic]

The second half of your first sentence above essentially contradicts the first half.

Also belive i have read that the RG is harder to find. With predominantly right handed QBs it makes sense that the most athletic players are on the left in college.

???

Not really. Many teams neglect the position, filling it with their least athletic lineman. That's what we have now. A competent "people mover" but limiting the overall line in what it can accomplish. A few teams opt for more.

I want more.

 

[mgteich]

This time last year wople were speculating that Marcus Bryant was a steal, would be our swing tackle for 2025, and could be our successor to Morgan Moses at RT. That doesn't seem very likely at the moment.

I like Dametrious Crownover. He could possibly be a starting right tackle, but I think it far more likely he becomes a competent swing tackle, which would be just fine for a 6th round pick, and along with Ben Brown give us quality depth across the line. That is very important.

Will Campbell has never played guard in his life, and was playing at a pretty good level as a rookie prior to being injured. I don't understand the rush to push him inside.

My best case plausible scenario right now:

- Campbell and Lomu are the long term starters at OT. Figure out who is best where. Dametrious Crownover becomes a quality swing tackle. Maybe Marcus Bryant develops into a decent #4 tackle.

- Jared Wilson becomes a quality OC, AVT stays healthy and gives you a quality starters at either guard spot (and a backup tackle in a pinch), Ben Brown is a quality depth rotational IOL.

In that scenario I still want a quality starting IOL at either RG or LG, preferably one like AVT with a high level of athleticism and some G/T versatility. I'd love to fill that in FA if another AVT type of opportunity presents itself. I think that is highly unlikely, but a year ago I would never have imagined we would land AVT. Otherwise, there are 6+ guys right now in the draft who I would target, and I hope at least 1 would fall to day 2 range.

Bryant has to make the team to be a decent 4th OT. Do you think that we are carrying 5 OT's?

 

[mayoclinic]

AVT has experience at both guard spots, so one option for 2027 could be to move him back to RG and fill the LG spot. There are several options for this:

1. Move will Campbell to LG. I am not currently in favor of this, unless he proves to be a liability at OT this season. Presumably Caleb Lomu would cover LT, and we would be back in the boat of looking for a RT successor to Morgan Moses, unless Dametrious Crownover takes a massive leap.

2. Sign a FA. My wet dream for this is Ikem Ekwonu, who is coming off a January patellar tendon injury. Ekwonu has both guard and tackle experience, is highly athletic, and has a mauler mentality.

Panthers' unexpected draft swerve could force a shocking shift for Ikem Ekwonu

This could be an option.

catcrave.com

Imagine Campbell-Ekwonu-Wilson-AVT-Lomu (or switch sides or Limu and Campbell). Then you can ignore OL in the 2027 draft.

3. Draft a day 2 T -> G conversion/hybrid. Jacarrius Peak or PJ Williams. Austin Siereveld or Carter Smith. Cayden Green or Greg Stephens. AVT gives you the flexibility to toggle between LG and RG.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Imagine Campbell-Ekwonu-Wilson-AVT-Lomu (or switch sides or Limu and Campbell).

Too good to be true.