History of QBs taken in round 1

[TBR]

DraftHistory.com

 

[PatsDeb]

I don't think the Pats are taking a QB in the first round. I wonder if they are going to trade those two picks to move up into the top 10. Is there some defensive stud they could be looking at?

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I don't think the Pats are taking a QB in the first round. I wonder if they are going to trade those two picks to move up into the top 10. Is there some defensive stud they could be looking at?

I doubt they would even do that. If a guy like Jackson fell to 23 they likely might take him.

 

[PatsDeb]

Looking at that list you can see what a crap shoot taking a QB in the 1st round really is. A few good ones that start contributing right away, but also many busts or disappointments who don't live up to the hype.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Looking at that list you can see what a crap shoot taking a QB in the 1st round really is. A few good ones that start contributing right away, but also many busts or disappointments who don't live up to the hype.

True but some of those guys go to crappy organizations where they play right away. They do a lousy job of bringing them up. I would trust our organization with a QB.

 

[signbabybrady]

How does the history of drafting QBs in the 6th round go again?

 

[patsinthesnow]

A lot of those guys would be pretty good successors if they had BB/McDaniels in their corner. Mariota’s growth as a QB has been ruined by atrocious coaching.

 

[TBR]

True but some of those guys go to crappy organizations where they play right away. They do a lousy job of bringing them up. I would trust our organization with a QB.

Hoyer, Mallett, Garoppolo, Brissett and Cassell in other uniforms have looked about equal if not better than they have with the Pats. The Pats don't have a magic spell for QBs.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Hoyer, Mallett, Garoppolo, Brissett and Cassell in other uniforms have looked about equal if not better than they have with the Pats. The Pats don't have a magic spell for QBs.

the only guy i like in that list is jimmy G. I don't think our organization was in love with the other guys on that list. They're not franchise QBs. I am sure BB didn't feel good about trading jimmy G.

 

[mgteich]

Another is a list of pro-bowl QB's and where they were drafted. And yes, one was drafted with a compensatory 6th round pick.

I agree that drafting a quarterback is a crapshoot. However, a team is much more likely to find a franchise quarterback in the first than in later rounds. Besides, a team has an extra year of control by drafting a quarterback in the first.

DraftHistory.com

 

[PatRiot]

I would say, never ever take a QB with pick 22
The result is terrible: Grossman, J P Losman, Quinn, Weeden and Manziel

 

[mgteich]

I would say, never ever take a QB with pick 22
The result is terrible: Grossman, J P Losman, Quinn, Weeden and Manziel

I guess it's good that we draft at 23.

 

[bigballas]

at least 20 of the expected starters of 2018 season were first round picks based on that list. looks to me there's a lot of validity in drafting 1st round QB's....

 

[TBR]

at least 20 of the expected starters of 2018 season were first round picks based on that list. looks to me there's a lot of validity in drafting 1st round QB's....

Majority of those 20 QBs are either washed up, not championship caliber, stop-gaps, unproven or questionable tier-2 "franchise" QBs.

That 2004 draft with Eli/Ben/Rivers was an outlier.

 

[PatsDeb]

Hoyer, Mallett, Garoppolo, Brissett and Cassell in other uniforms have looked about equal if not better than they have with the Pats. The Pats don't have a magic spell for QBs.

But they've also looked better than a lot of other QBs drafted by other teams. I think the Pats DO have somewhat of a magic spell for QBs called superior coaching.

 

[primetime]

Looking at that list you can see what a crap shoot taking a QB in the 1st round really is. A few good ones that start contributing right away, but also many busts or disappointments who don't live up to the hype.

Yeah but do a list like this for every round thereafter and it makes a QB in round 1 look like shooting fish in a barrel.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Looking at that list you can see what a crap shoot taking a QB in the 1st round really is. A few good ones that start contributing right away, but also many busts or disappointments who don't live up to the hype.

Worked out, won two Super Bowls...

...after we traded him

 

[Flash]

So the hit rate is about 55% give or take, which isn't too bad, better than tossing the dice at a Day 2 or 3 QB prospect.

The only QB that may fall to us is Lamar Jackson, and if Jackson is available at 22 why not draft him? Brady can't play forever and it'd be good for Jackson to sit behind Brady and just learn, Hoyer can baby-sit him too.

 

[JetFan79]

Combine that with the new rules:

1. No lowering your helmet.
2. And a new rule in the works stating not to give anyone a "boo boo".

If you can draft one of the top 4 QBs this year, you're in pretty good shape. You'll have a good QB for 40+ years.

 

[maineman209]

Before the 2014 draft, I created a similar list of drafted QBs for all rounds going back to 2004 (Roethlisberger). I included career length, number of starts, W-L percentage, a couple other stats, and then used my own (arbitrary) categorization for quality starter, average starter, quality backup, and bust (UPOS).

The "hit rate" for quality & average starters was highest for picks #1-#3 (~70%, IIRC), and a bit lower from #4 thru #12 (~57%?), though with more notable busts. From #13 thru the end of the 2nd round, it dropped to round 38% for starters, even when I took it in 10-slot increments (IOW the hit rate was about the same for picks #53-#64 as it was for picks #13 - #24).

OTOH, the hit rate for quality backup QBs increased and never really declined (though the sample size got smaller with each succeeding round, so ...).

IOW, using this Chase Stuart-esque method, there hasn't been a lot of difference in outcomes between taking a QB at #23 and taking one at #63, historically. But these are averages based on a small sample size, liberally fudge-factored, and every draft class is a bit different from every other.