Ranking Teams on Draft Success Over Past Five Drafts

[SlowGettingUp]

Looks like someone finally did pretty decent job of comparing the value you expect to get at each draft position with the value the team actually got.

The Seahawks come out as an easy number one in this analysis, with the Pats putting up a decent performance on this metric at number seven.

Note that the "value" metric they used heavily values playing time, and so the Pats will inherently be hurt some here because they already had a solid team and they are also picking lower on average (so harder for any of their drafted players to get significant playing time).

Grading every NFL team's draft performance over the last 5 years

They also give detailed player-by-player details, so it would be possible to tweak this analysis if anyone wanted to bother:

 

[The Brandon Five]

I'm just gonna leave this here.

 

[Tony2046]

This is really interesting.

The Browns lol.

 

[Tony2046]

How do you insert excel sheets?

Anyways I totaled both the AV and AV+/- for each team.

My interpretation:

AV= Total Approximate value for the players picked regardless of when they were picked.
AV+/- = Total Approximately value of each player relative to when they were picked.

AV is based on a player's games played, games started, Pro Bowl selections and First team All Pro selections.

I have a hard time dismissing AV as a grading tool although looking at both charts below it seems that AV+/- better reflects what we see performance wise.

One question I have is if BB coached LAR (362 AV) wouldn't LAR's AV+/- be much higher? I think absolutely it would. So is AV more a player grade or a drafting grade and AV+/- more a Coaching grade?

 

[luuked]

The Seahawks grade is highly misleading because it is essentially all based on the 2012 draft that they absolutely nailed (Irvin, Wagner, Wilson with #15, #47, #75). But since then they were below average in terms of drafting. Name me one starter level player that they drafted since 2012 that made a huge impact. Lockett ?

Conincidentally, this is exactly since they started to draft towards the end of the rounds (i.e. started to be successful).

 

[SlowGettingUp]

How do you insert excel sheets?

I just copied the link to the spreadsheet and pasted it into my reply. I was indeed surprised that it showed up as more than simply a link - kudos to the software!

Coincidentally, this is exactly since they started to draft towards the end of the rounds (i.e. started to be successful).

It's the same phenomenon that hurts the Pats - drafting lower hurts and having a better (more complete) team going into the draft hurts too.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

big caveat:

in their methods, average value depends on playing time, so a good team drafting good players who just don't happen to play as much right away is tagged as a poorer drafter than a bad team drafting players who play a lot right away, even if they are not so good.

example: Jimmy G was a bad draft pick since he hasn't played much. Stork, who no longer plays, was a lot better draft pick because he started playing right away.

 

[luuked]

It's the same phenomenon that hurts the Pats - drafting lower hurts and having a better (more complete) team going into the draft hurts too.

That was my point. I should have put "Coincidentally" under quotes or made it italc I guess .

 

[luuked]

example: Jimmy G was a bad draft pick since he hasn't played much. Stork, who no longer plays, was a lot better draft pick because he started playing right away.

Generally speaking it is a good way to measure it though. Yes, a backup QB is one of those edge cases where they need some kind of workaround to properly assess value but apart from that playtime is a pretty telling metric. Not every player gets drafted to become a AP type of player. The majority gets drafted with very specific roles in mind (e.g. Ebner).

 

[farn]

Hard to judge. Some might say Stork was a wasted pick, while I would say he was an integral part of a SB season.

Tavon started for Detroit all year. I agree he wasn't a super pick, but he contributed to STs while he was in NE & STs have been a remarkable part of NE's recent success. And he was behind very very solid players while here.