Second-day needs and opportunities

Fencer · Apr 27, 2008

I think we can all agree it's pretty unlikely that the Pats can upgrade the following positions on Day 2:

All 22 starters
K
LS
#3 WR (Gaffney)
Long-yardage RB (Faulk)
#2 TE (Thomas)
#3 DE (Green)

I think most of us would also agree it's hard, at this point in the draft, to upgrade:

FB (Evans)
#4 DE (Mike Wright)

So I think most of the scope for adding guys who can actually stick on the roster would be:

Backup QB
Eckel replacement at RB/FB
#3-4 TE
Backup OT (beat out one of O'Callaghan/Britt)
Backup interior OL (beat out one of Hochstein/Yates)
WR (beat out one of Jackson/Washington or force a 6th spot)
Backup NT (note: All five of our DEs started out as backup NT)
ILB (note: When they identify a position of real need, the Pats tend to double up in the draft)
OLB
DB
Punter

I bolded the two where I think the upgrade chance is most obvious.

Of the others:

I'm a Cassell non-fan, but I don't see them going with Guittierez AND a rookie. So a QB would be headed straight for the PS unless he was another Brady-class talent.

I think BB really likes Eckel and experienced FBs. And Faulk doesn't seem to be slowing down yet. So I don't see a lot of opportunity at RB.

I think the base case is Jackson makes the roster, so a WR needs to be PS fodder too.

Hochstein and Yates are good backups. But Hochstein is blah as a starter. A third-round guard is not an impossibility.

RT is a revolving door for the Pats, in two different senses. So it's a good possibility we see one OL fairly high on the second day.

The Pats like to double up on their big need positions. So we could easily see another ILB. But that would make the group Bruschi, Hobson, Mayo, Alexander, Rookie2, Izzo, Lua, and Seau-if-we-want-him, with only 5 jobs really available, so I also wouldn't count on it. Hobson, Mayo, and Lua-returned is plenty of new faces.

OLB is thin. An OLB pick is likely.

At DB, I think they'll try to keep Meriweather at safety. Be that as it may, there clearly are multiple DB jobs without confidence-inspiring incumbents. Three of last season's starters-plus-nickel are gone. I expect more DBs.

Tyler.Durden · Apr 27, 2008

A blocking big body te is on the cards. Maybe a bigger corner and ilb. Pass rushing dl.

We have aging players everywhere on the defence so the best available player will be chosen.

gomezcat · Apr 27, 2008

I've heard good things about Cliff Avril, so it will be interesting to see what the Pats and other teams think of him, based on the intensive research they have done.

primetime · Apr 27, 2008

Again, Hobson is an OLB until proven otherwise. He might eventually play inside, but he has never done so before and projecting him as an ILB this far before training camp is a mistake, I think.

PatsFanInVa · Apr 27, 2008

I think we will get a 2nd rounder (and my personal favorite add-on is "and a 5th") in 2009 out of one of our 3rd rounders. Whatever we all think about the usefulness of these 3 picks, long-term thinkers like the Pats just love how "I'd gladly pay you a double quarter pounder tomorrow for a cheeseburger today" works in the NFL draft.

sebman2112 · Apr 27, 2008

primetime said:
Again, Hobson is an OLB until proven otherwise. He might eventually play inside, but he has never done so before and projecting him as an ILB this far before training camp is a mistake, I think.

You might want to tell Hobson and the Patriots that...

nepatz11 · Apr 27, 2008

i definitely think we can upgrade. great players get pulled all the time in the middle rounds. Historically if you look at the odds of drafting a probowler i would say there is not a huge difference between rounds 1 and 3. Thats why im pumped that we have three third rounders. There are great players waiting out there to be drafted and we have one of the top personell teams in league history making the picks.

Warren94 · Apr 27, 2008

Go all LSu

( I know It's a dream)

Flynn, QB
Doucet, WR
Hester FB

RhodyPatriot · Apr 27, 2008

Think there is a great opportunity in Round 3 to get players who can play and contribute. In the past Round 3 came at the end of a very long day 1 of the draft. With the new format round 3 comes at the start of day 2 and teams have had time to take stock of who's left and have time to set up trades, find out who is targeting what player, etc. Buckle your seatbelts at 10 am because these rounds go fast and we're going to see some major movement. There are "players" to be had in Round 3 and the Patriots have 3 picks. Nice!

mcgraw_wv · Apr 27, 2008

Fencer said:
I think most of us would also agree it's hard, at this point in the draft, to upgrade:

FB (Evans)

I disagree, I think, an dI'm partial, but no one in the draft more resembles a Patriots player than Owen Schmitt from WVU. Tough never stop motor, can catch out of the back field, and has the ability for a big tough FB to break a 50 yard run as he did in the Fiesta Bowl last year...

BIOGRAPHY: Three-year starter who posted 47/272/5 on the ground as a senior, averaging 5.8 yards/carry. Also added 12/121/1 catching the ball. Junior-year rushing totals included 65/351/7 when he averaged 5.4 yards/carry.

POSITIVES: Athletic lead blocker with terrific size and athleticism. Displays good blocking vision, stays square, and clears holes in the running game. Plays with an aggressive style, buries his shoulders into opponents, and picks up yardage off initial contact when carrying the ball. Plays fast for a big man and easily moves about the field. Solid receiver out of the backfield.

NEGATIVES: Straight-line player who does not show the agility to cut the corner. Must improve his playing balance. Not quick out of his stance.

ANALYSIS: Schmitt is a hard-working prospect who has overcome a lot of adversity to get where he is in life. Possesses all the physical skills and intangibles necessary to quickly see playing time at the next level.

groundgame · Apr 27, 2008

PatsFanInVa said:
I think we will get a 2nd rounder (and my personal favorite add-on is "and a 5th") in 2009 out of one of our 3rd rounders. Whatever we all think about the usefulness of these 3 picks, long-term thinkers like the Pats just love how "I'd gladly pay you a double quarter pounder tomorrow for a cheeseburger today" works in the NFL draft.

I bet there will be no stockpiling picks into 2009. After Goodell took away the 1st RD pick from Pats in 2008, coupled with Goodell's oath to the media that more penalties could be on the way if further evidence is found, I see them using all the #3 picks this year in order to potentially have less in the cupboard later that could be taken away.

groundgame · Apr 27, 2008

They trade the #69 pick to SD

PatsFanInVa · Apr 27, 2008

Thank you very much.

gomezcat · Apr 27, 2008

PatsFanInVa said:
Thank you very much.

That's a very impressive piece of prophecy on your part. Did you bug the draft room?

groundgame · Apr 27, 2008

Fencer said:
I think we can all agree it's pretty unlikely that the Pats can upgrade the following positions on Day 2:
...
So I think most of the scope for adding guys who can actually stick on the roster would be:

ILB (note: When they identify a position of real need, the Pats tend to double up in the draft)
OLB
The Pats like to double up on their big need positions. So we could easily see another ILB. But that would make the group Bruschi, Hobson, Mayo, Alexander, Rookie2, Izzo, Lua, and Seau-if-we-want-him, with only 5 jobs really available, so I also wouldn't count on it. Hobson, Mayo, and Lua-returned is plenty of new faces.

OLB is thin. An OLB pick is likely.

Good call Fencer!

PatsFanInVa · Apr 27, 2008

gomezcat said:
That's a very impressive piece of prophecy on your part. Did you bug the draft room?

Just knew it was coming because I was all psyched we would pick so early (again) on day 2. Then I realized... whenever I am all psyched about the top of any round, it becomes the next year's next round up, usually "plus a 5th" LOL.

PFnV

tatepatsfan · Apr 27, 2008

Frank Okam hasn't been taken yet, right? Talk about a big body for Big Vince's backup.

primetime · Apr 27, 2008

tatepatsfan said:
Frank Okam hasn't been taken yet, right? Talk about a big body for Big Vince's backup.

I like Athyba Rubin better as a NT. He occupies blockers consistently. Isn't a real threat to pressure the QB but neither was a guy like Ted Washington. Okam could be something special. He could also be a complete dud. Maybe that's worth the gamble at this point for a team like the Patriots?

Fencer · Apr 27, 2008

PatsFanInVa said:
I think we will get a 2nd rounder (and my personal favorite add-on is "and a 5th") in 2009 out of one of our 3rd rounders. Whatever we all think about the usefulness of these 3 picks, long-term thinkers like the Pats just love how "I'd gladly pay you a double quarter pounder tomorrow for a cheeseburger today" works in the NFL draft.

Agreed re the time value of draft picks in general.

As I noted in the other thread, I question whether they got enough of a time premium in the actual trade, however, if this was a particularly strong draft.

Fencer · Apr 27, 2008

RhodyPatriot said:
Think there is a great opportunity in Round 3 to get players who can play and contribute. In the past Round 3 came at the end of a very long day 1 of the draft. With the new format round 3 comes at the start of day 2 and teams have had time to take stock of who's left and have time to set up trades, find out who is targeting what player, etc. Buckle your seatbelts at 10 am because these rounds go fast and we're going to see some major movement. There are "players" to be had in Round 3 and the Patriots have 3 picks. Nice!

Given the amount of prep teams do, I doubt the exact picking schedule has a big effect.

Yeah, I know there's some effect as teams maneuver overnight for trades at the start of the first day, but there are tons of pick trades throughout the draft. 17 3rd picks wound up being traded, if I counted correctly, but so did 19 4th round picks.

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