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My Ridiculously Early Start on a 2026 Offseason Plan

Wish the Pats had been in on this:

Ex-Bears CB Nahshon Wright agrees to free-agent deal with Jets: Source

Wright had a breakout season with the Bears that included five interceptions, two forced fumbles and three fumble recoveries.
www.nytimes.com

Dirt cheap.

Wright and Leo Chenal good day 2 FA values that were very affordable and could have really helped.
 
One thing I didn’t really appreciate until recently is how much draft picks may have become more valuable over time because of salary cap growth.

Over the past decade the NFL salary cap has gone up about 94% (roughly $155M in 2016 to about $301M in 2026). But rookie contracts under the draft slot system have lagged

For example, the 31st pick about 10 years ago had a rookie deal around $9.5M total, and today it’s roughly $13M. That’s only about a 37% increase.

So relative to the cap, rookie contracts have actually gotten cheaper.

I also checked another spot in the draft to see if this was just a late first-round thing. Looking at the 100th pick, the pattern was basically the same, the cap went up about 94%, while the contract for that slot only went up around 38%.

If that’s right, it seems like draft picks are even more valuable relative to the cap than they used to be. If you hit on a good player, you’re getting production at a much bigger discount compared to signing a veteran.

My guess is the reason is:

  • the salary cap moves with league revenue
  • rookie pay is mostly fixed by the CBA rookie wage scale, so it only creeps up a bit each year.
The numbers I found online might not be perfectly exact, but directionally it seems pretty clear that rookie deals have grown much slower than the cap.
 
dliverey44 said:
I really hope they do not make the trade for Brown, he will undoubtedly help the offense, but I would prefer to a couple of successful draft classes before trading for upper tier talent.
Click to expand...
I agree but it does appear to be the narrative we're in currently. Maybe the AJ Brown buzz will die down between now and the draft.
 
DoubleDeluxe said:
The hardest part would be watching the draft Fri night and having to wait 63 picks barring a trade up
Click to expand...
Yup. Never a pleasant experience. I don't really want the trade, partly selfishly from a draftnik perspective but also because Brown will be 29. If he was 26 or 27 I'd be all for it.
 
manxman2601 said:
Yup. Never a pleasant experience. I don't really want the trade, partly selfishly from a draftnik perspective but also because Brown will be 29. If he was 26 or 27 I'd be all for it.
Click to expand...
I have a long time buddy come over every draft for the 1st round. We make food, have a couple of beers and catchup (only time I see him all year).
We always have a contest for a case of beer where we both write 3 names for each pick.
first name you write gets you 5 pts if correct, 3 for 2nd name, and 1 for 3rd.
Total points at the end of the rd wins.
Anyway, for years I always had to wait till the end of the round for the Pats pick.
Hours waiting to hear one name called.
.......then they would trade down sometimes out of the first and I would go to bed completely unsatisfied.
Draft blue balls I guess you could say.
 
DoubleDeluxe said:
I have a long time buddy come over every draft for the 1st round. We make food, have a couple of beers and catchup (only time I see him all year).
We always have a contest for a case of beer where we both write 3 names for each pick.
first name you write gets you 5 pts if correct, 3 for 2nd name, and 1 for 3rd.
Total points at the end of the rd wins.
Anyway, for years I always had to wait till the end of the round for the Pats pick.
Hours waiting to hear one name called.
.......then they would trade down sometimes out of the first and I would go to bed completely unsatisfied.
Draft blue balls I guess you could say.
Click to expand...
So what is the tally of wins/losses to this point
 
DoubleDeluxe said:
I have a long time buddy come over every draft for the 1st round. We make food, have a couple of beers and catchup (only time I see him all year).
We always have a contest for a case of beer where we both write 3 names for each pick.
first name you write gets you 5 pts if correct, 3 for 2nd name, and 1 for 3rd.
Total points at the end of the rd wins.
Anyway, for years I always had to wait till the end of the round for the Pats pick.
Hours waiting to hear one name called.
.......then they would trade down sometimes out of the first and I would go to bed completely unsatisfied.
Draft blue balls I guess you could say.
Click to expand...
I spend 3 days locked into this forum which I love. Saturday can drag a bit however, at least until the excitement of the UDFA excitement which might just be my favourite part. No time for games or getting drunk though.
 
Just a thought, but this article got me thinking:

The Giants still need to address defensive tackle — here’s how they can

The Giants still need to get Dexter Lawrence some help.
www.bigblueview.com

So what about a direct swap: Christian Barmore for Kayvon Thibodeaux? Kind of along the lines of Jermaine Johnson for T'Vondre Sweat.

The trade could help both teams. The Giants would have a formidable DL with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter outside and Barmore and Dexter Lawrence inside.

The Pats would have an EDGE group of Thibodeaux, Dre'Mont Jones, Harold Landry, Christian Ponder and Bradyn Swinson. Definitely an upgrade from 2025. The loss of Barmore would hurt, but the sense is that the team may move on from him.

Thibodeaux is in his option year at $14.75M. He is very unlikely to remain with the Giants, and is rumored to be available for a 4th round pick. The odds are also high that the Pats will move on from Barmore by 2027. A change of scenery could be good for both players.

Barmore's trade value is rumored to be around a Day 3 pick. Trading him would save about $4M in 2026 cap space.

Replacing Barmore may be easier than finding a good EDGE. Cory Durden, Josh Farmer and Leonard Taylor have all shown flashes. And then there is the draft. Caleb Banks could possibly slip to 31, Lee Hunter could slip to 63 or be available through a trade up. A run stuffer like Kayden McDoald could be an option, or Domonique Orange or Darrell Jackson Day 2. The Pats could address RT, S, WR or other areas. For example:

1(31) RT Max Iheanachor or DL Caleb Banks

2(63) S Treydan Stukes or WR Ted Hurst

3(95) DT Darrell Taylor or RT Dametrious Crownover

It also occurred to me that if the Pats did move on from Barmore, they could draft more of a run stuffer like Kayden McDonald, and move Dre'Mont Jones inside in sub packages.

Just a thought.
 
Last edited:
mayoclinic said:
Just a thought, but this article got me thinking:

The Giants still need to address defensive tackle — here’s how they can

The Giants still need to get Dexter Lawrence some help.
www.bigblueview.com

So what about a direct swap: Christian Barmore for Kayvon Thibodeaux? Kind of along the lines of Jermaine Johnson for T'Vondre Sweat.

The trade could help both teams. The Giants would have a formidable DL with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter outside and Barmore and Dexter Lawrence inside.

The Pats would have an EDGE group of Thibodeaux, Dre'Mont Jones, Harold Landry, Christian Ponder and Bradyn Swinson. Definitely an upgrade from 2025. The loss of Barmore would hurt, but the sense is that the team may move on from him.

Thibodeaux is in his option year at $14.75M. He is very unlikely to remain with the Giants, and is rumored to be available for a 4th round pick. The odds are also high that the Pats will move on from Barmore by 2027. A change of scenery could be good for both players.

Barmore's trade value is rumored to be around a Day 3 pick. Trading him would save about $4M in 2026 cap space.

Replacing Barmore may be easier than finding a good EDGE. Cory Durden, Josh Farmer and Leonard Taylor have all shown flashes. And then there is the draft. Caleb Banks could possibly slip to 31, Lee Hunter could slip to 63 or be available through a trade up. A run stuffer like Kayden McDoald could be an option, or Domonique Orange or Darrell Jackson Day 2. The Pats could address RT, S, WR or other areas. For example:

1(31) RT Max Iheanachor or DL Caleb Banks

2(63) S Treydan Stukes or WR Ted Hurst

3(95) DT Darrell Taylor or RT Dametrious Crownover

It also occurred to me that if the Pats did move on from Barmore, they could draft more of a run stuffer like Kayden McDonald, and move Dre'Mont Jones inside in sub packages.

Just a thought.
Click to expand...
The rumored cost for a Thibodeaux trade is also a day 3 pick.

Why not load up for a stronger '26 team and just trade the pick for KT? The front is a lot stronger with Barmore than opening up another hole.

Also just a note on Banks - hes got another foot injury. Might seem minor by itself, but this is a recurring problem for him. I dont know how teams are going to view that injury but it definitely raises questions about his durability.
 
manxman2601 said:
I think it's fairly safe to say that Chase Bisontis and Emmanuel Pregnon are probably off the board for us now with the AVT signing.

The same goes for Riley Nowakowski and Max Bredeson, I suspect, with the Gilliam signing.

I don't think the Dre'mont Jones signing changes anything.
Click to expand...

That's because DreMont Jones Sucks. Absolutely ****ing SUCKS.

Horrible. HORRIBLE waste of precious ****ing cap space.

But hey, he's an Ohio State alum, same as Mister Loyalty Uber Alles, and that's what's Really important now at One Patriot Place
 
mayoclinic said:
Just a thought, but this article got me thinking:

The Giants still need to address defensive tackle — here’s how they can

The Giants still need to get Dexter Lawrence some help.
www.bigblueview.com

So what about a direct swap: Christian Barmore for Kayvon Thibodeaux? Kind of along the lines of Jermaine Johnson for T'Vondre Sweat.

The trade could help both teams. The Giants would have a formidable DL with Brian Burns and Abdul Carter outside and Barmore and Dexter Lawrence inside.

The Pats would have an EDGE group of Thibodeaux, Dre'Mont Jones, Harold Landry, Christian Ponder and Bradyn Swinson. Definitely an upgrade from 2025. The loss of Barmore would hurt, but the sense is that the team may move on from him.

Thibodeaux is in his option year at $14.75M. He is very unlikely to remain with the Giants, and is rumored to be available for a 4th round pick. The odds are also high that the Pats will move on from Barmore by 2027. A change of scenery could be good for both players.

Barmore's trade value is rumored to be around a Day 3 pick. Trading him would save about $4M in 2026 cap space.

Replacing Barmore may be easier than finding a good EDGE. Cory Durden, Josh Farmer and Leonard Taylor have all shown flashes. And then there is the draft. Caleb Banks could possibly slip to 31, Lee Hunter could slip to 63 or be available through a trade up. A run stuffer like Kayden McDoald could be an option, or Domonique Orange or Darrell Jackson Day 2. The Pats could address RT, S, WR or other areas. For example:

1(31) RT Max Iheanachor or DL Caleb Banks

2(63) S Treydan Stukes or WR Ted Hurst

3(95) DT Darrell Taylor or RT Dametrious Crownover

It also occurred to me that if the Pats did move on from Barmore, they could draft more of a run stuffer like Kayden McDonald, and move Dre'Mont Jones inside in sub packages.

Just a thought.
Click to expand...
Why not just keep Barmore and still trade a pick for Thibodeaux making the dline better without weaking it?
 
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