Building Through the Draft

It's pretty much a given that good drafting is the best way to build a perennial contender. The draft is a crapshoot, but as a general rule:

1. Acquire more picks to increase chances (the Ravens are masters of this).
2. Get production out of roughly 50% of your picks.
3. About 20-25% of picks become cornerstone players.

Second contracts are expensive, so you have to be selective about who you play, and efficient about replacing productive players who are not worth overspending. A few bad decisions can weigh a team down.

From 2016-2020 the Pats drafted 42 players. Only 1 could be considered a cornerstone, LG Joe Thuney, and the team let him go in FA. Only about 25% of their picks were productive, and they arguably overpaid on a number of 2nd contracts (Dugger, Onwenu). That's a sure recipe for becoming a bottom dweller.

The drafting over the past 5 years has improved somewhat. Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez, Drake Maye and Will Campbell look like cornerstones. Gonzalez-Maye-Campbell is outstanding 1st round drafting in consecutive years. The Pats have gotten some production from roughly 40% of their picks.

The Pats are likely to have some big 2nd contracts in the next 5 years, but if they can sustain better drafting they look to have a strong foundation to build on.

1. 2 additional picks this year.

2. This is why I don't think Vrabel is keen on trading away picks, either for players or to move up.

3. The Eagles and Ravens have been masters of allowing the draft to come to them, particularly in round one. A model we should follow.

4. As you say, build through the draft while locking up Gonzo and Maye in the next two years. And probably Marcus Jones this year. There's no-one else that I can think of that we really need to worry about for 2nd contracts in the same timeframe. Am I missing anyone? Keion White isn't one.

5. Hopefully we'll be back in the compensatory pick hunt in a year or two.

6. Good OP.

Right now Maye, Campbell, Williams (FA), Barmore and Gonzalez look like cornerstones players. That's 5/22 starters.Wilson and Henderson could possibly develop into cornerstones.
Marcus Jones is borderline when healthy.

Craig Woodson looks like a long-term starter. Kyle Williams and Josh Farmer should be productive, Marcus Bryant a possible swing tackle. Low-cost production and depth is key.

The Pats were desperate, and over-paid on Onwenu, Duggar and Stephenson.

Lock up the key guys. Get production from as many as possible, replace/upgrade them without overspending.

Keion White not a key guy. Would settle for some production.

Kayshawn Boutte productive, but not a key guy. Extend if cost-effective, but don't overpay.

Just for comparison, Philly has cornerstones or potential cornerstones at QB Hurts, RB Barkley, LT Mailata, LG ****erson, RT Johnson, WR Brown, WR Smith, DT Carter, DT Davis, LB Baun, LB Campbell, CB Mitchell, and CB De Jean.

Not all are All Pros, but a ton of really good players.

That should be the goal, IMO.

Best case scenario Maye, Henderson, Campbell and Wilson are cornerstones on offense, Williams, Barmore, Gonzalez and Jones on defense. Add a couple of more in 2026 and you have a strong core.

Woodson and Kyle Williams should be productive, but need to see more.

Guys like Henry, Landry and Spillane are also solid veteran starters, just not long term cornerstones.

Bumping this. The Pats have vastly exceeded expectations with the 2025 draft, with long-term starters/significant contributors at LT, IOL, RB, WR, S, K and LS. They have also shown the ability to develop players.

The flip side to this is the Jets. Todd McShay has recently declared that "no single player in this draft wants to be a Jet":


Lack of confidence in ownership and in the ability of the coaching staff to develop players are the main factors.

All players need development to succeed. The Pats are emerging as one of the best options for this to happen.

The ridiculous overspends on day 1 of FA this year underscores the importance of building through the draft.

Secondary effects of good drafting:

- You are in position to re-sign / retain good contributors.
- You avoid piling up dead money.

Some of these overspends are going to backfire spectacularly.

The Pats missed out on some of my preferred targets (Pierce, Oweh), but they avoided getting sucked in to the over-spending game. Good discipline.

mayoclinic said:

The ridiculous overspends on day 1 of FA this year underscores the importance of building through the draft.

Secondary effects of good drafting:

- You are in position to re-sign / retain good contributors.
- You avoid piling up dead money.

Some of these overspends are going to backfire spectacularly.

The Pats missed out on some of my preferred targets (Pierce, Oweh), but they avoided getting sucked in to the over-spending game. Good discipline.

Click to expand...

LT, RT, WR, EDGE - Draft early and often. If they make it to FA at all, they will always be expensive.