Strength of Schedule nonsense

upstater1 · Feb 9, 2026

Fun with numbers.

Patriots opponents had a 39% winning %.

But if you swap out the Raiders game for a game against the Broncos, the Patriots opponent record is 43%.

And they STILL win 14 games.

I heard over the last week that teams with records like the Patriots usually have an opp win % of around 45.

If you add (to the previous swap) a swap out of the Seahawks for the Titans, you now move to a 46% win % and 13 wins for the Patriots (assuming a loss to Seattle).

JoeSixPat · Feb 9, 2026

I'm not exactly sure about the math, but while SoS is a red herring once you've beaten the best teams to get to the Super Bowl, the path next season is a lot more difficult next season as we already know who the opponents are.

Games against some improved Broncos, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars and Seahawk teams aren't going to make being 14-3 and in contention for the bye an easier path next season.

But even if we go 11-6 and we're a stronger team playing better competition and better tested for the playoffs, that's not a bad thing.

So yeah - SoS helped us get to 14-3 this season - and that meant NOTHING in the playoffs. What matters in the playoff is how truly healthy and strong you are as a team, regardless of the regular season.

I have no reason not to think we will be a MUCH stronger team next season, with a tougher SoS and probably less than 14 wins. And while we'll be stronger, once the playoffs start we'll be 0-0 again and hopefully healthy enough for a good run.

The good news is we're back to the Dynasty Days where we are good enough to make the playoffs and need to be less focused on winning every game, and more focused on having quality depth to maintain quality when injuries culminate towards the end of the season.

ctpatsfan77 · Feb 9, 2026

JoeSixPat said:
I'm not exactly sure about the math, but while SoS is a red herring once you've beaten the best teams to get to the Super Bowl, the path next season is a lot more difficult next season as we already know who the opponents are.

Games against some improved Broncos, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars and Seahawk teams aren't going to make being 14-3 and in contention for the bye an easier path next season.

The boldfaced teams and the Raiders are on the sched because of division rotation. Only the other 3 are from winning.

Ross12 · Feb 9, 2026

ctpatsfan77 said:
The boldfaced teams and the Raiders are on the sched because of division rotation. Only the other 3 are from winning.

Exactly. If the Pats finished with a 7-10 record and third in the division (like the Dolphins), they would still be playing all those same teams except instead of playing:

-Steelers, Jaguars, Seahawks

they would instead play:

-Bengals, Colts, 49ers

Not exactly much difference there. If anything, I would rather play the Steelers than the Bengals. Seattle and SF are close. Only real gap to me is JAX vs IND. But even then, Indy is still a solid team, they don’t suck. Kind of a wash.

The Bills will also have the same situation but they’ll have the Ravens, Texans and Rams instead. That might be the hardest trio.

upstater1 · Feb 9, 2026

JoeSixPat said:
I'm not exactly sure about the math, but while SoS is a red herring once you've beaten the best teams to get to the Super Bowl, the path next season is a lot more difficult next season as we already know who the opponents are.

Games against some improved Broncos, Packers, Vikings, Steelers, Chiefs, Chargers, Bears, Lions, Jaguars and Seahawk teams aren't going to make being 14-3 and in contention for the bye an easier path next season.

But even if we go 11-6 and we're a stronger team playing better competition and better tested for the playoffs, that's not a bad thing.

So yeah - SoS helped us get to 14-3 this season - and that meant NOTHING in the playoffs. What matters in the playoff is how truly healthy and strong you are as a team, regardless of the regular season.

I have no reason not to think we will be a MUCH stronger team next season, with a tougher SoS and probably less than 14 wins. And while we'll be stronger, once the playoffs start we'll be 0-0 again and hopefully healthy enough for a good run.

The good news is we're back to the Dynasty Days where we are good enough to make the playoffs and need to be less focused on winning every game, and more focused on having quality depth to maintain quality when injuries culminate towards the end of the season.

The schedule does look rough, by this year's standards, but I would point to the Bills who had a tough schedule coming into the year, but the games against Baltimore and Kansas City flopped.

So they ended up with only 2 tough games outside the division, Houston and Philly.

Think about it, the only Bills games that were different from the Patriots were Kansas City (6-11), Houston (12-5) & Philly (11-6).

New England got the Raiders, Tennessee and the NY Giants (2-1).

Effectively, this was a one game swing. If you swapped schedules, both teams end up 12-5 and you go to a tiebreaker.

When people say it's a weak or strong schedule, they always think it's something drastic, whereas the difference is really one game on your record.

SammyBlueCat · Feb 9, 2026

To be a champ, you have to take on all opponents

ctpatsfan77 · Feb 9, 2026

SammyBlueCat said:
To be a champ, you have to take on all opponents

But to be the best you must demolish the JEST.

1960Pats · Feb 10, 2026

upstater1 said:
Fun with numbers.

Patriots opponents had a 39% winning %.

But if you swap out the Raiders game for a game against the Broncos, the Patriots opponent record is 43%.

And they STILL win 14 games.

I heard over the last week that teams with records like the Patriots usually have an opp win % of around 45.

If you add (to the previous swap) a swap out of the Seahawks for the Titans, you now move to a 46% win % and 13 wins for the Patriots (assuming a loss to Seattle).

This reminds me of a stat that I heard recently concerning gun violence.

The US ranks 3rd in the world out of 193 countries for gun violence. But if you take out the 5 worst cities they move to 189th. The people in those 5 cities are still dead though.

The Pats clearly played an easy schedule this year. Just like the NFCW had an easier schedule playing The AFCS and NFCS.

The reason the Pats **** the bed in the playoffs is because Maye may have started taking advice from PEDton Manning, king of the one-and-done playoff.

Strength of Schedule nonsense

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