WOW Bulletin Board predictions by ALL the ESPN football writers

1960Pats said:

I like Brian Baldinger's takes. He thinks the key is that both teams improved in the trenches, both on offense and defense.

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This is absolutely the case. Both teams improved a bunch over the season. Each team had their hiccups but overall had a rising trajectory that brought them here.

It's going to be close, by all actual indications, not this "well duh schedule" slop we've been getting since Halloween.

Several things that media seems to be ignoring.
1) Darnold is a turnover machine, more so when pressured with 14 interception and 11 fumbles on the year, 2.9% interception rate
compared to Maye's 8 ints (one a Hail Mary) and 8 fumbles with a 1.6% interception rate. Darnold's 20 turnovers (they recovered 5 fumbles) were the most in the league.
2) Darnold is 0-4 versus Pats ( yes it was the Jets) but the ghosts still have to be rattling around.
3) I wonder how that oblique will feel if he gets hit a few times....
Food for thought...

1960Pats said:

So you think he's a liar? I don't.

I really don't care what Brady says or does now. He helped give every one of us the greatest 20 years in NYFL history. That was more than enough.

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He did not do it for the fans, only for himself. He could not care less for the fans

Sam Bam Cunningham said:

Now we know how the 2007 giants must have felt going into the super bowl

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Do you remember what Ron Borges predicted for the 2001 SB ? He predicted a 70-0 Rams win.

SVN said:

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That's Sam Monson's podcast partner.

No one is picking this team and most are predicting a blow out. Hope Milton and the D comes to play.

Remarkable how the disrespect the team is getting is just like how the 2001 Patriots were seen going into SB36.

They were even disrespected after winning the Super Bowl. I remember someone (Prisco?) said there's no way he'll put the Pats at the top of the power rankings at the start of next season and he put them something like 5th. And every single ESPN writer picked the Steelers over the Pats when the Pats started their title defense opening Gillette Stadium.

Give Kraft A Hand said:

No one is picking this team and most are predicting a blow out. Hope Milton and the D comes to play.

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These predictions intially made me fired up. Now i am bit worried like we might be the chargers in the SB vs the 49ers the way they are talking about the mismatch

SVN said:

These predictions intially made me fired up. Now i am bit worried like we might be the chargers in the SB vs the 49ers the way they are talking about the mismatch

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It's not that lopsided, but this is probably one of the first times in quite awhile where there was a perceived large gap between two Super Bowl teams. You probably have to go back to Pats vs the Giants or Colts vs the Bears where there was this strong of a consensus one way.

Granted.... a big part of this is that recency bias means people are remembering the Seahawks crushing a decimated 49'ers team and the Patriots sort of just edging out underwhelming games and valuing that higher. But if you are totally unbiased and don't have a dog in the race, it's hard to really do an analysis that doesn't favor Seattle. The records are the same, but Seattle played in a division with 3 playoff teams and then played against the AFC South which was considered to be the strongest division (Texans, Jaguars both playoff teams and the Colts just barely missed out due to an injury). Then they just beat the team with the MVP and also beat a team in one of the most lopsided outcomes of this playoffs. They have the top ranked defense in the NFL.

The big advantage the Patriots have is that we have the higher ranked offense while they don't. But the issue is that we haven't seen them play like a top 3 offense all playoffs.

The Patriots really need to step up on offense and play their best game of the year to win this one. Seattle probably has more margin for error.

lancerman said:

It's not that lopsided, but this is probably one of the first times in quite awhile where there was a perceived large gap between two Super Bowl teams. You probably have to go back to Pats vs the Giants or Colts vs the Bears where there was this strong of a consensus one way.

Granted.... a big part of this is that recency bias means people are remembering the Seahawks crushing a decimated 49'ers team and the Patriots sort of just edging out underwhelming games and valuing that higher. But if you are totally unbiased and don't have a dog in the race, it's hard to really do an analysis that doesn't favor Seattle. The records are the same, but Seattle played in a division with 3 playoff teams and then played against the AFC South which was considered to be the strongest division (Texans, Jaguars both playoff teams and the Colts just barely missed out due to an injury). Then they just beat the team with the MVP and also beat a team in one of the most lopsided outcomes of this playoffs. They have the top ranked defense in the NFL.

The big advantage the Patriots have is that we have the higher ranked offense while they don't. But the issue is that we haven't seen them play like a top 3 offense all playoffs.

The Patriots really need to step up on offense and play their best game of the year to win this one. Seattle probably has more margin for error.

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Yeah, our 12 yards of offense in the 1st Q vs denver was terrifying if that is what they do vs good defense.

SVN said:

These predictions intially made me fired up. Now i am bit worried like we might be the chargers in the SB vs the 49ers the way they are talking about the mismatch

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The Vegas line for Super Bowl XXIX was 49ers by 19.0. That's not comparable at all. Currently, the betting line is Seahawks by 4.5. The last three times the Vegas line was 4.5 (or higher), the underdog team won. Super Bowl LIII when the Eagles beat the Pats, Super Bowl XLVII when the Ravens beat the 49ers and Super Bowl XLIV when the Saints beat the Colts. All these Super Bowls had a line of 4.5. The last time that a team that was favoured by that much or more won was in Super Bowl XLIII when the Steelers with a line of 6.5 managed to beat the Cardinals.

sb1 said:

Remarkable how the disrespect the team is getting is just like how the 2001 Patriots were seen going into SB36.

They were even disrespected after winning the Super Bowl. I remember someone (Prisco?) said there's no way he'll put the Pats at the top of the power rankings at the start of next season and he put them something like 5th. And every single ESPN writer picked the Steelers over the Pats when the Pats started their title defense opening Gillette Stadium.

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Yeah, they were the darlings of the NFL, but media wanted them to eventually lose. They were pissed when they beat the Rams.

With that said, it wasn’t that disrespectful the Rams were heavy favorites over the Patriots. They were previously Super Bowl champions and by far the best team up until that point. It came full circle 6 years later when the Giants pulled wins out of their asses against Dallas and at GB. Pats would’ve squeaked out a win had Brady not had a severe high ankle sprain.

TheRainMaker said:

Yeah, they were the darlings of the NFL, but media wanted them to eventually lose. They were pissed when they beat the Rams.

With that said, it wasn’t that disrespectful the Rams were heavy favorites over the Patriots. They were previously Super Bowl champions and by far the best team up until that point. It came full circle 6 years later when the Giants pulled wins out of their asses against Dallas and at GB. Pats would’ve squeaked out a win had Brady not had a severe high ankle sprain.

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ron borges predicted pats will lose 70-0

Like I said at the beginning of this process, ANYONE who is somewhat knowledgeable about the NFL would have to pick the Seahawks. Almost ALL the metrics, especially the recent ones, point to the Seahawks as the team to beat. WE don't feel that way, but we are hardly dispassionate and our fandom sways our point of view. I do NOT see why people get upset when we see those predictions.

We need to embrace them because they not only will make the victory even sweeter should we win, but they will also ease the pain a bit, should they lose. In the end this will be an NFL football game between 2 very good teams. The actual talent differences at MOST, is about 5% and the game will come down to which team makes the most "big plays" , plays the best situational football, and who gets the most "good breaks". Not so strangely, those are the same criteria that determine the winner of most every game of football.

There is not 2001 miracle without the 2 TD's we got from the punt return and FG block return, AND the 2 TO's at the end of the game. ALL those things had to happen. We all relish the 3-28 comeback by Brady, and fondly remember it, but we also conveniently forget that it was the same Brady who was by and large the architect of that deficit. So much **** has to go right to win a game at this level, we forget sometimes just how tenuous they are. But make no mistake we are going to have to grab more than our share of "Ty Law pick six", or Long getting the flag for his pass rush vs Atlanta to take that first down away, type plays. And SO will Seattle if they intend to win, btw. It's part of the beauty of the game and why we love it so much and stay fans so long.

Enjoy the game folks.

patfanken said:

Like I said at the beginning of this process, ANYONE who is somewhat knowledgeable about the NFL would have to pick the Seahawks. Almost ALL the metrics, especially the recent ones, point to the Seahawks as the team to beat. WE don't feel that way, but we are hardly dispassionate and our fandom sways our point of view. I do NOT see why people get upset when we see those predictions.

We need to embrace them because they not only will make the victory even sweeter should we win, but they will also ease the pain a bit, should they lose. In the end this will be an NFL football game between 2 very good teams. The actual talent differences at MOST, is about 5% and the game will come down to which team makes the most "big plays" , plays the best situational football, and who gets the most "good breaks". Not so strangely, those are the same criteria that determine the winner of most every game of football.

There is not 2001 miracle without the 2 TD's we got from the punt return and FG block return, AND the 2 TO's at the end of the game. ALL those things had to happen. We all relish the 3-28 comeback by Brady, and fondly remember it, but we also conveniently forget that it was the same Brady who was by and large the architect of that deficit. So much **** has to go right to win a game at this level, we forget sometimes just how tenuous they are. But make no mistake we are going to have to grab more than our share of "Ty Law pick six", or Long getting the flag for his pass rush vs Atlanta to take that first down away, type plays. And SO will Seattle if they intend to win, btw. It's part of the beauty of the game and why we love it so much and stay fans so long.

Enjoy the game folks.

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Brady was a deserving MVP. But the defense gave them a chance to dig themselves out of the hole they created. To give up 21 points and make a few gamechanging plays was nothing short of impressive vs that offense. I always thought they never got enough credit for that comeback.

I am unsure what you mean by "we are going to have to grab more than our share of "Ty Law pick six". If the Patriots get a pick six, and do not turn it over themselves, there is a high chance they win. Of course, the opposite is true of Seattle getting a pick six.

Unless they blow a three score lead or fumble while going in for the GW TD, this is "house money" for the fan base imo. I think a Seattle loss will impact them more than a NE loss.

NFL Mystique said:

I am unsure what you mean by "we are going to have to grab more than our share of "Ty Law pick six". If the Patriots get a pick six, and do not turn it over themselves, there is a high chance they win. Of course, the opposite is true of Seattle getting a pick six.

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Just giving an example of a "big play" that exists in every big playoff win. I guess I'm trying to make a long-standing point that teams are not usually inherently "better" rosters at this level. They are ALL very good, especially when you get this deep in the playoffs. They win or lose games because on that particular day they had the better game plan, or got the calls and bounces, or MADE more big plays, or had the fewest TO's.

It's my response to those comments about "doing deep dives on the roster and determining that this roster is better than the other, etc." Back when we first started doing this stuff, we used to go position by position and make determinations that our LT was better than your DE, and go down the line, and if you had more wins in those match ups, you should win the game. Not very sophisticated analysis, but that's what was done back then, and THAT's the kind of analysis I'm seeing being done now by some of these guys.

In the end, it will come down to the same things that determine EVERY game, and I won't repeat them again,

patfanken said:

Just giving an example of a "big play" that exists in every big playoff win. I guess I'm trying to make a long-standing point that teams are not usually inherently "better" rosters at this level. They are ALL very good, especially when you get this deep in the playoffs. They win or lose games because on that particular day they had the better game plan, or got the calls and bounces, or MADE more big plays, or had the fewest TO's.

It's my response to those comments about "doing deep dives on the roster and determining that this roster is better than the other, etc." Back when we first started doing this stuff, we used to go position by position and make determinations that our LT was better than your DE, and go down the line, and if you had more wins in those match ups, you should win the game. Not very sophisticated analysis, but that's what was done back then, and THAT's the kind of analysis I'm seeing being done now by some of these guys.

In the end, it will come down to the same things that determine EVERY game, and I won't repeat them again,

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Indeed.

boy scott kacsmar really hates the pats

SVN said:

boy scott kacsmar really hates the pats

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Funny how no one ever mentions the Broncos incredibly weak schedule, as tho Denver deserved to be in the SB instead. Nor that Maye has faced so many top 10 defenses (7 of them this yr). Or that Darnold has feasted on teams playing backup or scrub QBs