Misleading stats and QB rating

TB12GOATQB · Jan 21, 2019

Did I hear right that Brady had a 77 QBR? And mahomes was like well over 100?

See this is why stats and QBR can lie. And people who use them without context are wrong and missing the big picture. Anyone with 2 eyes that watched the game can say 2 things:

1. Brady was sensational with 1 major mistake

2. Brady won the QB battle (I know they don't play H2H but you get me).

Anyone able to tell.me what QBR would be if you removed 1 pick? Im shocked it was so low with over 300 yards and his high completion %.......Brady must have been dinged for "only" 1 TD pass and the 2 picks....but if we dig in we know that 1 pick was arguably not his fault. Sorry but edelman owns that one of his hands even if toss came in a little hot. Also the 1TD....ummm Brady led 5 TD drives down the field and 3 game winning TD drives when it mattered most and they had to have it. So they chose high % handoffs inside the 10 because they knew they could get it. Also Brady made adjustments and audibles that Romo called out turning into big runs....
QBR dings him for that. Also the 3 3rd and long conversions in a row were the stuff legends are made of.

Mahomes was off and confused. Made some key mistakes and failed to adjust to defensive schemes. Even with all that he was very good in 2nd half and some chunk scoring to make it a battle. So he deserves his high grade but he lost the day to Tom.

TB12GOATQB · Jan 21, 2019

Meanwhile kellerman is saying Brady 3 INT...even though 1 wasnt due to an infraction and it hit Gronk on his hands but ok Max.

Stephen A talking sense today and giving respect. Grades Brady an A. Max gives a B....haha.

maust · Jan 21, 2019

Kellerman's excuses are the equivalent of a normal person getting their shinebox. Why the hell anyone gives that moron any more thought than he gives his 'taeks' is beyond me. Only a weatherman or a sports (ahem) journalist can be that wrong that often and remain employed.

Sicilian · Jan 21, 2019

QBR (and regular QB Rating) try to measure "efficiency". So the fact that Brady's stats were accumulated over 94 plays hurts him while Mahomes' happening over 47 plays helps him. Plus INTs tend to be weighted heavily in the negative, so 2-0 against Brady hurts those ratings. It's like any stat: Might help categorize something, but by itself means nothing.

Uptown · Jan 21, 2019

Brady QBR: W-I-N.

everlong · Jan 21, 2019

Kellerman went to the Terrell Suggs school of self publicity. If you say it about Blake Bortles nobody gives a rats ass. About TB12 and it's front page. Stop suffering from clickbaititis.

SacPete1 · Jan 21, 2019

I've always gotten a kick out of QB Rating and particularly how it suits agendas.

For example, throwing a pass 1 yard to a RB and having that RB run for 10 yards in the first quarter has the same numerical value as throwing a pass 10 yards down the field on 3rd and 10 in the 4th qtr.

Throwing it away reduces the QB rating more than if you were to take a sack and if that sack takes you out fg range it doesn't really matter (Mahomes).

Ints that go off of Receivers hands and are catchable go against the QB rating.

All of which is to say that if your argument for performance of QB's relative to each other is based on QBR and disregards the eye test, then you either don't know much about football or like I mentioned from the start you use stats like QBR to support your agenda.

maust · Jan 21, 2019

"Stats are for losers, the final score is for winners."

Deus Irae · Jan 21, 2019

Stats are always subject to being thrown off by the unusual, and they're only guidelines anyway. Edelman screwing up and letting that INT go through his fingers took an 86.1 and dropped it to 77.1. But, because of how the Patriots finished drives (4 rush TDs, 1 pass TD) compared to how the Chiefs finished drives (1 rush TD, 3 pass TD), Mahomes gets the benefit of the TD bump to his passer rating.

The Overtime drive is an excellent example of why stats are great for helping, but only as long as you remember context. Brady ripped off 3 huge 3rd and 10 conversions, but the score was via a running play. So, that brilliant drive netted him a QB rating of 66.9. If he'd have just tossed a quick flip for the 2 yard completion at the end, rather than the team running it in, that QB rating would have been 102.9.

TB_Helmet · Jan 21, 2019

There needs to be an “adjusted INT” stat where if an official scorer determines that the INT was the result of a WR drop or something and clearly not a bad pass, then it doesn’t count against the QB.

BobDigital · Jan 21, 2019

My thoughts are this. It wasn't Brady's best game. I've seen him play a good deal better.

There were a lot of passes off the mark and that bad int in the end zone. I don't give Brady a free pass or total blame for those passes to Edelman and Gronk that went for Ints (with one off set from Ford being offsides). They should have been placed in better spots. Also he was off on a number of other throws that were missed or WRs made sensational catches on. He also had arguably another intercept-able pass.

That being said he had a number of Great passes and the over time drive was pretty damn masterful. Between the 2 QBs I would take Brady over Mahomes.

Mahomes had a great stat line but he had a much easier day than Brady. He was saved by a dropped int in the end zone and he missed on a wide open TD pass. He also had that horrible sack to take his team out of FG range.and the strip sack which he was lucky to recover. There were a lot of plays that were simply given to him out there. His best TD pass was to Williams with Hightower on the run. He clearly beat him but a good pass none the less. His 2 other TD passes were much less difficult with the other one to Williams being a gift. His 2 best passes of the game was one where he managed to buy time and break a tackle (good for him BTW) and threw to a wide open Watkins for 20. He also got over 100 yards on 2 passes to Hill and Watkins deep. Both were good passes but both guys were clearly open by a good margin.

Brady didn't have many easy passes today beyond 5 yards of the LOS. He had to thread a bunch of them in. Particularly late in the game on key downs.

I will personally give Brady the check mark in this game. He made more mistakes but had more plays.

GodBrady · Jan 21, 2019

TB_Helmet said:
There needs to be an “adjusted INT” stat where if an official scorer determines that the INT was the result of a WR drop or something and clearly not a bad pass, then it doesn’t count against the QB.

I don't like Pro Football Focus, but I will give them credit because they do account for this.

PFF also accounts for "gimme" interceptions that a defensive player drops. If we're going to exclude interceptions that a receiver "should've" caught, we should also include times a quarterback was fortunate and "should've" been picked off.

GodBrady · Jan 21, 2019

TB12GOATQB said:
ee this is why stats and QBR can lie. And people who use them without context are wrong and missing the big picture. Anyone with 2 eyes that watched the game can say 2 things:

I'm not trying to be pedantic, but try not to refer to passer rating as "QBR". QBR is a relatively-new metric that ESPN came up with. QBR is scaled from 0 to 100, with 50 being average.

Passer rating / QB Rating is on a different scale (0 to 158.3). League average passer rating this year was 92.9.

QBR weights each play differently, with high-impact, probability-changing plays being weighted more. Passer rating treats every play the same.

Brady's passer rating was 77.1.
Mahomes' passer rating was 117.0.

Brady's QBR was 80.9.
Mahomes' QBR was 73.0.

Satchboogie3 · Jan 21, 2019

A WAR like stat needs to be created for NFL QBs, where everything is taken into account. Score, defensive pressure, down, situation, WR seperation, pass accuracy, INTs that are WR mistakes or effectively a punt or hail Mary, drive efficiency (take into account run plays that are good calls), points gained (getting into FG range, getting a rush TD in the RZ, etc).

People forget that a QBs job is NOT to throw TDs. Their job is to win the game. Making the best play for the situation. Sometimes that is running the ball 3 times to kill the clock and get a game winning FG. Sometimes thats handing the ball off at the 1 to get a rushing TD. Those last 3 drives were near flawless. 3 drives, 3 TDs, and he played the situations perfectly with clock management, etc.

Ring 6 · Jan 21, 2019

BobDigital said:
My thoughts are this. It wasn't Brady's best game. I've seen him play a good deal better.

There were a lot of passes off the mark and that bad int in the end zone. I don't give Brady a free pass or total blame for those passes to Edelman and Gronk that went for Ints (with one off set from Ford being offsides). They should have been placed in better spots. Also he was off on a number of other throws that were missed or WRs made sensational catches on. He also had arguably another intercept-able pass.

That being said he had a number of Great passes and the over time drive was pretty damn masterful. Between the 2 QBs I would take Brady over Mahomes.

Mahomes had a great stat line but he had a much easier day than Brady. He was saved by a dropped int in the end zone and he missed on a wide open TD pass. He also had that horrible sack to take his team out of FG range.and the strip sack which he was lucky to recover. There were a lot of plays that were simply given to him out there. His best TD pass was to Williams with Hightower on the run. He clearly beat him but a good pass none the less. His 2 other TD passes were much less difficult with the other one to Williams being a gift. His 2 best passes of the game was one where he managed to buy time and break a tackle (good for him BTW) and threw to a wide open Watkins for 20. He also got over 100 yards on 2 passes to Hill and Watkins deep. Both were good passes but both guys were clearly open by a good margin.

Brady didn't have many easy passes today beyond 5 yards of the LOS. He had to thread a bunch of them in. Particularly late in the game on key downs.

I will personally give Brady the check mark in this game. He made more mistakes but had more plays.

What game did you watch?

Palm Beach Pats Fan · Jan 21, 2019

The Patriots love to run the ball at the goal line and always have. Scoring 4 TDs by running the ball takes away passing TDs and hurts Brady's passer rating., but so what. An INT clearly the fault of the WR hurts the passer rating as much as an INT that's clearly the fault of the QB.

Ultimately, winning is the only stat that matters.

Deus Irae · Jan 21, 2019

GodBrady said:
If we're going to exclude interceptions that a receiver "should've" caught, we should also include times a quarterback was fortunate and "should've" been picked off.

They are apples to oranges, and defensive "drops" have no business being counted in creating the QB numbers. Defenders aren't receivers, so there's no expectation of them catching every catchable ball.

Redstorm · Jan 21, 2019

If KC could’ve ran like New England then the QBR for Mahomes is probably different. And if New England was forced to pass Brady probably goes over 400 with numerous touchdowns

Ice_Ice_Brady · Jan 21, 2019

It’s virtually impossible to quantity QB play into one number due to all the variables, whereas other sports can use WAR or some efficiency rating that does correlate to a player’s value. QB play just has too many different choices and possible outcomes, as well as at least two seaparate players responsible for the success of a play. It isn’t a guy versus a basket or a batter versus a pitcher.

Anyone who watched Brees play yesterday should immediately see the shortcomings of QB rating. He was putrid, with two layup TD passes but completely ineffective at moving the ball, especially in the second half. He was incredibly lucky not to get picked in that wobbler to setup the controversial play.

ZoisKing · Jan 21, 2019

Some stats in Brady's favor that aren't misleading:

NFL record for TD passes in a postseason game-Brady with 6 (also Young and Lamonica)
NFL record for completed passes in a postseason game-Brady with 43
NFL record for passing yards in a postseason game-Brady with 505
NFL record for completion % in a postseason game-Brady with 92.9%

Crazy stuff. He's going to own every single game and career passing record in the postseason when it's all over.

Misleading stats and QB rating

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