NE legal FA tampering watch

Elijah said:

He's pretty much our nickel back. Have you seen what #3 CBs get paid?

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No. He is half of our nickel, playing under 50% of the snaps when we play nickel or dime over 80%
I'm not saying he wasn't a valuable player, I'm saying his role isn't a 5-6 million dollar role

50-yard-line said:

I was going to post something similar, but I looked: Harmon played about half the snaps (500) as Chung last year (1000). Surprised me that the gap was so large.

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And corners played 707 snaps of nickel/dime, so Harmon was actually the 6th DB, but used on almost half the snaps.

AndyJohnson said:

And he has paid 5-6mill a year for players who play 50% of the snaps when healthy so many times before too, right?

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You are thinking in 2011-13 numbers. 5-6 million with the rising cap are not that much money anymore.

50-yard-line said:

So I saw a tweet where several NFL execs have put Harmon at 5-6 million/year. At that money, would BB bring him back?

I think he might.

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With Chung going into the last year of his deal, I agree. If the Pats see him as the long-term answer opposite McCourty, I could see them paying him, having three guys making starter money this year (which is okay, especially since all three can be on the field in the nickel), and then having Harmon as starting strong safety starting in 2018.

That's only if they see him being a better long-term bet than Chung, though. If they intend to keep Chung around past this coming year, I think Harmon's gone.

Don't think this fits under legal tampering but whatever:

luuked said:

You are thinking in 2011-13 numbers. 5-6 million with the rising cap are not that much money anymore.

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No, I am thinking right now. 5-6 mill for a guy who plays less than half the snaps is a lot of money.
I guarantee you no other team will be offering Harmon 5 - 6 mill to be their 3rd safety.

luuked said:

Don't think this fits under legal tampering but whatever:

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Awesome. Go get him New England!


Cooks
Gronk
Mitchell
Hogan
Edelman

Our best offense ever, our most complete offense ever. Unstoppable

AndyJohnson said:

No, I am thinking right now. 5-6 mill for a guy who plays less than half the snaps is a lot of money.
I guarantee you no other team will be offering Harmon 5 - 6 mill to be their 3rd safety.

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5-6 million are the equivalent of 3-4 million just a few years ago. Sorry but your numbers are just not properly adjusted.

The few interesting possible Bennett replacements might not come much cheaper than him.. Good thing the draft is deep.

Still in case they don't bring back Bennett I expect a vet TE signing as well.

EDIT: He even hinted on home discount..

BradyFTW! said:

With Chung going into the last year of his deal, I agree. If the Pats see him as the long-term answer opposite McCourty, I could see them paying him, having three guys making starter money this year (which is okay, especially since all three can be on the field in the nickel), and then having Harmon as starting strong safety starting in 2018.

That's only if they see him being a better long-term bet than Chung, though. If they intend to keep Chung around past this coming year, I think Harmon's gone.

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Chung signed an extension this spring through 2018.

Miguel's UNOFFICIAL Patriots Salary Cap Footnotes and Documentation Page - Patrick Chung

luuked said:

You are thinking in 2011-13 numbers. 5-6 million with the rising cap are not that much money anymore.

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$5M = 3% of 2017's $167M cap.
3% of 2011's $120M cap = $3.6M

I'd be really pissed if I was a coverage specialist that retired in 2010 or so, knowing that if I'd been born 10 years later I would've made a whole lot more money.

Im imagining this working out much like McCourty's did. guys like harmon, ryan, hightower will go out and see what kind of deals they get. then will come back to Bill and will see if he will match it.

Bill/Caserio generally have an idea of the market for a player better than the agents themselves (see wes welker 2013) . They'll let the other teams set the groundwork and then put in their best offer.

long distance said:

The few interesting possible Bennett replacements might not come much cheaper than him.. Good thing the draft is deep.

Still in case they don't bring back Bennett I expect a vet TE signing as well.

EDIT: He even hinted on home discount..

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If that's $7M a year then Bennett should get what he wants easy.

long distance said:

Here a very nice work by Evan Lazar on 12 possible FA targets for NE:
Potential Targets For The #Patriots in 2017 Free Agency

Quotes:

Mike Gillislee, RB:
The Bills have a history of undervaluing their role players. It was just last year that they tendered Chris Hogan at the lowest level, allowing him to walk to the Patriots for no draft pick compensation (Hogan was a UDFA). If it were me, I would be more than willing to give up a fifth round pick for what is a very talented running back. In fact, according to PFF, Gillislee led all qualified running backs in yards after contact per rush in 2016 (3.4), slightly edging out Dolphins tail back Jay Ajayi. Gillislee also led qualified running backs in yards per rush (5.7)

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I think if Blount bounces they make a move for this kid. Watched his 2016 highlights and dude is 3-down NFL starting RB. Bills once again wasting their own talent.

AtomicDawg said:

If that's $7M a year then Bennett should get what he wants easy.

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If Jermaine Gresham is worth $7M, then to hell with getting any TE in FA. Time to look to the draft.

Silver lining: the rumors of the Pats parting ways with Gronk should disappear pretty quickly. It's hard to make a credible complaint about how much they're investing in him when he's making less than Jermaine Gresham (who sucks, btw).

AtomicDawg said:

If that's $7M a year then Bennett should get what he wants easy.

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Deals like that are why the Pats take the first week of FA off, I guess. What are the odds that Arizona isn't regretting that deal 12 months from now? 25%?

luuked said:

5-6 million are the equivalent of 3-4 million just a few years ago. Sorry but your numbers are just not properly adjusted.

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No, they are completely and accurately adjusted.
In 2013, the cap was 123mill, now it is 167 mill. That is an increase of 35.7%.

So if we use the mid point of 5-6 million, or 5.5 million, that would be the equivalent of $4,053,000 in 2013 dollars.
In 2013, the Patriots had 5 players on the roster making that much. Your argument adds up to saying the 3rd safety, playing under 50% of the snaps should be paid in the vicinity of the top 5 players on the team.
I would imagine a guy playing 50% of the snaps probably comes in anywhere from 20th to 30th in importance to the team, and based on 2013 those players cap numbers were 1.015 mill and 683 k, which in 2017 dollars would be 1.377 mil and 927 k, so no, the numbers do not back up your claim.

Another TE down, Marty's price up..

luuked said:

5-6 million are the equivalent of 3-4 million just a few years ago. Sorry but your numbers are just not properly adjusted.

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AndyJohnson said:

No, they are completely and accurately adjusted.
In 2013, the cap was 123mill, now it is 167 mill. That is an increase of 35.7%.

So if we use the mid point of 5-6 million, or 5.5 million, that would be the equivalent of $4,053,000 in 2013 dollars.
In 2013, the Patriots had 5 players on the roster making that much. Your argument adds up to saying the 3rd safety, playing under 50% of the snaps should be paid in the vicinity of the top 5 players on the team.
I would imagine a guy playing 50% of the snaps probably comes in anywhere from 20th to 30th in importance to the team, and based on 2013 those players cap numbers were 1.015 mill and 683 k, which in 2017 dollars would be 1.377 mil and 927 k, so no, the numbers do not back up your claim.

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I don't disagree with the principle here, but one thing to keep in mind is that salaries for free agents are increasing at a greater rate than the salary cap.

The NFL minimum salaries were negotiated in 2011 and do not depend on the salary cap. Below is a link:
NFL CBA Series: Minimum Salaries

To Andy's example, a 4-year veteran earned $715K in 2013 and will earn $775K in 2017; that's an 8.4% increase compared to the 35.7% cap increase during that time period. A good portion of the roster earns salaries that compare to the minimum. This in turn causes the inflation for the free agents to be slightly higher. I'd have to look at the actual roster distribution to see, but I wouldn't be surprised if a free agent making $5.5M in 2017 would have been closer to $3.75M in 2013 rather than $4M, but that's just an estimate.

The greater point remains though. In 2013, Belichick surprised everyone by giving Kyle Arrington a $4M deal. But he had played 75% of the snaps. Harmon, while valuable, still only played 50% of the snaps. I'd expect the overall value to the team to be prorated accordingly -- that is, unless Belichick thinks he'll play more than 50% next year.