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Some Monday Thoughts On Round One, After seeing Jeremiah's Top 50

mgteich

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1) Let us consider Jeremiah's top 25 to be all gone by the time we pick. Accidents do happen, but usually for the wrong reasons (character, healt)
2) Let us add Simpson (someone, likely AZ will trade up for him).
================================
THE BOARD WITH FOUR MORE OFF BEFORE GONE BEFORE WE PICK
26 EDGE Mesidor
27 EDGE Parker
28 EDGE Howell
29 EDGE Faulk
30 OT Lomu
31 OT Iheanchor
32 LB Allen
33 NT McDonald
34 RB Price
===============
SO, we will have our pick of at least FIVE of the above.

IMO, the worst board would be (losing Mesidor, Lomu, Iheanchor and McDonald (having failed to trade up)

Parker
Howell
Faulk
Allen
Price
=======
Personally, if this were the case, I would very much like to trade down.
 
I always add more weight to intangibles, ability to move up a level, and experience for 1st rounders. If we can't trade down, Faulk, Parker and Allen might have some of the best foundations in the draft.

All managed to start as true freshman in powerhouse schools. All young (20 and just turned 21 in the last month) and already natural defensive leaders. Allen and Faulk were team captains, Parker graduated and married. Great characters. All are 3 down players and great against the run. Faulk and Parker frequently commanded double teams and scheme attention in 2025.

Allen doesn't have the coverage ability I really want, and he might not be allpro or probowler in the nfl, but he will likely be a foundational piece through his rookie contract. Parker isn't the speed rusher we want and needs to develop moves and counters. Faulk carries more risk in terms of not developing his pass-rushing ability as DE. However given his age has capacity for growth, and increase strength. Just think about this, Faulk will be the same age as Mesidor is now when reaches the end of his rookie contract. He has significant capacity to improve in an nfl program while still getting snaps as a rookie.

None of them are the finished product, but all have significant experience and room to grow. If all other prospects are gone and they can't trade down, I can see one of those drafted, especially CJ Allen.
 
I always add more weight to intangibles, ability to move up a level, and experience for 1st rounders. If we can't trade down, Faulk, Parker and Allen might have some of the best foundations in the draft.

All managed to start as true freshman in powerhouse schools. All young (20 and just turned 21 in the last month) and already natural defensive leaders. Allen and Faulk were team captains, Parker graduated and married. Great characters. All are 3 down players and great against the run. Faulk and Parker frequently commanded double teams and scheme attention in 2025.

Allen doesn't have the coverage ability I really want, and he might not be allpro or probowler in the nfl, but he will likely be a foundational piece through his rookie contract. Parker isn't the speed rusher we want and needs to develop moves and counters. Faulk carries more risk in terms of not developing his pass-rushing ability as DE. However given his age has capacity for growth, and increase strength. Just think about this, Faulk will be the same age as Mesidor is now when reaches the end of his rookie contract. He has significant capacity to improve in an nfl program while still getting snaps as a rookie.

None of them are the finished product, but all have significant experience and room to grow. If all other prospects are gone and they can't trade down, I can see one of those drafted, especially CJ Allen.
Well thought out post. But if I wanted to trade back and couldn't, I probably would just pick the guy I was going 2-15 slots back to pick whether it was Jacas or Rutledge, etc., ad nauseum. Yeah, there is some loss of value but better than going with a guy I wasn't certain with in the 1st place.
 
Here's Dane Brugler's top 300 from yesterday, for comparison:


If you look at Brugler's list and assume the top 25 are gone, you still have:

26 Denzel Boston
27 Aveion Terrell
28 Akheem Mesidor
29 Blake Miller
30 Colton Hood
31 TJ Parker
32 Kayden McDonald
33 Max Iheanachor
34 Chase Bisontis

Plus Caleb Banks (52), Keylon Rutledge (62), Treydan Stukes (56), Jake Golday (48) and Jacob Rodriguez (40).

Even if Mesidor, Miller, Iheanachor and McDonald are off the board, there are a number of attractive prospects worth taking at 31 if we can't trade down.

The Pats should have some solid options.
 
Things are lining up well for us at 31 for a number of positions. Well enough we can go BPA.

Things line up well at 63 for TE too with us being able to get the jump on Klare or Delp (maybe Stowers) if that's the way we want to go.

What I am concerned about is EDGE at 63. There is the risk of feeding from the scraps of a 2nd round edge run which worries me.

At the same time, hoping Burke or Bell are there at 95 is also risky.

For me, that makes Iheanachor the likely pick at 31 if he's there. EDGE in the 2nd, being prepared to trade up if necessary, and being prepared to compromise at TE for day 3 guys.
 
I'm of the mind to take Iheanachor if available at 31, Delp at 63 and then fingers crossed for an edge at 95 or BPA.

As Mayo said, you can't do it all.
 
For what it's worth, I listened to Todd McShay's podcast yesterday, and he said that after making some phone calls, he feels like he's underestimated the number of teams in the late teens and 20s that are interested in the tackles.

Without saying it specifically, he made it sound like there's a really good chance that all seven are gone prior to pick #31.

I know Wolf said he wants to add some speed to the edge, but it seems like the speed rush options that are likely to be there at #31 are all guys who are likely to be designated pass rushers. And do the Patriots really want to use their first round pick on someone who might only play 15-20 snaps per game, even at his peak?
 
Things are lining up well for us at 31 for a number of positions. Well enough we can go BPA.

Things line up well at 63 for TE too with us being able to get the jump on Klare or Delp (maybe Stowers) if that's the way we want to go.

What I am concerned about is EDGE at 63. There is the risk of feeding from the scraps of a 2nd round edge run which worries me.

At the same time, hoping Burke or Bell are there at 95 is also risky.

For me, that makes Iheanachor the likely pick at 31 if he's there. EDGE in the 2nd, being prepared to trade up if necessary, and being prepared to compromise at TE for day 3 guys.
Scraps at EDGE are likely a lot better than the scraps at RT.
 
I'm not sure "fingers crossed" is the right approach to filling your biggest need.

Fair enough. I'd feel really good about landing Iheanachor and Delp though.

There's a lot of 2nd and 3rd round DEs who are more or less in the same tier.
 
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