Jaguars-Pats point spread and early trend...

[GameDay]

Pats fans do not care to win by 1 or 14 points. But there is an interesting trend...
- Early sharp money comes in on the Pats, giving 11 points, then shifted to ~ 11.5 or 12 or so for Jaguars action.
- Some people commented that it should have been as much as 14 pts (based on Pats-Jaguars relative strength) but after recent close games by the Pats (2-6 ATS in the last 8 games), they set the line closer to get more action.
- Public comes in later heavy on the Jaguars, and this trend is expected to continue, which...
- Hopefully will be enough to move the line even more toward the Jaguars, inflating their heads a little and dulling their sense of disrespected.
(This is not for those who do not believe players pay notice to the point spread and feel disrespected; nor for those who do not think that it matters if players feel insulted or not... Also, privately I heard that the house is happy to see more Jags money. One said that it would be like Pats-Steelers game and we know how that turned out).

 

[makewayhomer]

- Hopefully will be enough to move the line even more toward the Jaguars, inflating their heads a little and dulling their sense of disrespected.
(

some players certainly pay attention to this stuff. but, I doubt that the move from 11 to 12 or from 12 to 10 or whatever is significant to players

 

[GameDay]

some players certainly pay attention to this stuff. but, I doubt that the move from 11 to 12 or from 12 to 10 or whatever is significant to players

It's not the absolute number. It's the trend. If they feel the movement is toward them, they may feel better? I think it may get to 10 at most. Doubtful if 9.5.

 

[makewayhomer]

It's not the absolute number. It's the trend. If they feel the movement is toward them, they may feel better? I think it may get to 10 at most. Doubtful if 9.5.

yeah, I just dont know if these guys pay close enough attention for the trend to matter. even some people who bet on sports a fair amount don't bother to pay a lot attention to the movement.

and sometimes the movement is more subtle, going from -10.5 +100 to -10.5 -125 or something, if the bookies dont want to cross the 10.

and then, there are so many sources for lines now that the game may be -10.5 somewhere and -11.5 somewhere else, with the same juice.