The difficulties In Hitting Our Two biggest Needs: EDGE and RT

[manxman2601]

I think it's becoming established here on this forum that EDGE and RT are our two biggest needs. Yes, there's other possibilities - just going BPA for example or hitting an offensive skill position as another - but I think EDGE and RT are where we're at by and large.

However there are difficulties. Most of the best prospects, even at the second level, are likely gone by pick 63. Using Dane Brugler's top 100 as a guide:

1. Go EDGE in the first (Mesidor/Parker) and the second tier OTs like Blake Miller or Iheanachor don't even get to the mid second, never mind 63.

2. Go OT in the first, and the second tier edge rushers like Zion Young, Mason Thomas, Derrick Moore and even Gabe Jacas likely don't make it to 63.

This makes sense, these are premium positions.

So what are the options? I see 5 main ones (I'm not including trading back because there's too much guess work involved):

1. Sign an EDGE in FA and draft a RT at 31.

2. Draft an EDGE at 31 and draft Dametrious Crownover, Caleb Tiernan or Austin Barber who are the best of the tier 3 OTs.

3. Draft an OT at 31 and then draft a top tier 3 edge rusher: Keyron Crawford, Malachi Lawrence, maybe Romello Height or Dennis-Sutton.

4. Draft an OT at 31 and hope someone like Jacas falls close enough to 63 to trade up for.

5. Ignore needs and go BPA.

Option 2 is my 'heart' favourite because I can't quit Mesidor but my head says option 1 is the best one. I also like option 5, just go BPA.

The other argument in favour of option 2 is that any RT pick is a developmental one that will only see real benefits in year 2 of a rookie contract. I don't think we're expecting a drafted RT to replace Moses out of the gate. I don't mind developing Crownover or Barber. On the other hand, we're really looking for an EDGE to produce immediately and I don't think the tier 3 edge rushers are prospects you can nail on to be day one starters.

Because these two needs are where most of this discussion is, I just wanted to lay out, as starkly as possible where things currently stand and what the options currently are. Yes, the combine and FA could all change this massively.

So what are your favourite options?

 

[manxman2601]

Three other thoughts.

1. Option 1 is the most likely.

2. The team may not see things the same way we do. We got to the SB with Moses, backed up by Bryant and Munford. Maybe the FO are prepared to push the Moses replacement to the 2027 draft. After all, they're not afraid to put a rookie in a key starting spot.

3. We know they were keenly targeting edge rushers at the trade deadline which tells me that's still their no 1 priority.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Last year Vrabel and crew targeted DT before DE. Maybe this year they target IOL before OT.

 

[mayoclinic]

We'll have a better idea in a month after FA. I expect some aggressive moves.

 

[Zuma]

I wanted to see more out of Munford before deciding if we need a new RT to replace Moses...I don't think we saw enough. I'm still torn. Bryant is not the guy. Some of these quotes are encourgaging. If the Pats don't draft at RT in the 1st 2 rounds then maybe they see something in Munford we don't yet....

Patriots tackle: ‘I was not in the right headspace’ at beginning of season

Thayer Munford's mental transformation has turned his season around in New England after being released by the Raiders and Browns

www.masslive.com

“You saw a different Thayer, I think, than the one that left here,” Vrabel said. “And again, having spent time with another team, came here, and I think it was okay. And then getting claimed by Cleveland, coming back, I think we all, including Thayer, saw a different version of him. One who was much more prepared, ready to go physically, and has done that role before. He’s helped us, hopefully, and whether he plays tackle or both spots on the offensive line. So, I think we’ve just seen a different version of Thayer, and I think he’s trying to take advantage of his opportunities.”

Munford said he understood what Vrabel meant by saying they say a different version of him.

“He basically means at the beginning of the season, I was not in the right headspace,” Munford said. “After I got let go by the Raiders, I thought I was going to be there this year, especially after they kept me on the roster after everybody was on the 53. I was all types of messed up in my head.” “I was three or four weeks here, and when I got picked up from Cleveland, I was like, alright, I’m ready to go,” Munford said. “And when I got released there, I was like, ‘OK, forget everyone else, I’m going to show them who messed up in their department.’ When I came here, I just had the mindset to keep going every day and put my best foot forward.”

Since coming back to New England, Munford has appeared in all three games, playing 48 snaps on offense and 16 on special teams. He filled in for Morgan Moses at right tackle against Baltimore and has been used as a jumbo tight end. After getting released by two teams this season, Munford is now contributing to a playoff-bound Patriots team.

“It was a rude awakening, but it is what it is. It’s the NFL. I’m just grateful to be in this position,” Munford said. “Happy to be back with everybody. Happy to be in the position that I am. I’m happy to contribute to the team.”

 

[stelfans]

Agree wholeheartedly with you.

1-Trading back should be the best option but I think it will be very hard to find a match.

2-I don’t like the options in FA at edge. You’re likely gonna end up paying a lot more than the value this guys offer and you could be looking at some very ugly contracts in a year.
2b-I wanted to trade 31 for Crosby. Still an option but I’m getting cold feet, it’s a hard decision for me.

3-Like you said, team might not see things as black and white. I can definitely see them push RT into 2027 and try to fix some other areas.

4-The way I see it, there 3 immediate needs. a)edge, b)RT, c)safety. Hawkins could be re signed but honestly we should be able to do a lot better. Thieneman as to be in he conversation at 31.

5-That being said, EDGE at 31 makes the most sense.

6-I could see a move for AJ Brown.

 

[manxman2601]

Agree wholeheartedly with you.

1-Trading back should be the best option but I think it will be very hard to find a match.

2-I don’t like the options in FA at edge. You’re likely gonna end up paying a lot more than the value this guys offer and you could be looking at some very ugly contracts in a year.
2b-I wanted to trade 31 for Crosby. Still an option but I’m getting cold feet, it’s a hard decision for me.

3-Like you said, team might not see things as black and white. I can definitely see them push RT into 2027 and try to fix some other areas.

4-The way I see it, there 3 immediate needs. a)edge, b)RT, c)safety. Hawkins could be re signed but honestly we should be able to do a lot better. Thieneman as to be in he conversation at 31.

5-That being said, EDGE at 31 makes the most sense.

6-I could see a move for AJ Brown.

My issue with a Crosby trade is that there are going to be a lot of teams in that market I suspect and we're offering a worse first rounder than any of them meaning we will have to overpay compared to the competition.

AJ Brown for a 2nd is interesting ( I dont like the idea of giving up a first). He'd be better than any WR at 63 provided Vrabel can get the best out of him.

How about?

31. Mesidor, Parker or Z. Young
63. AJ Brown
95. Best linebacker, CB or safety available. (Stukes, Kyle Louis, Wheatley, Genesis Smith spring to mind as possibles)

 

[mayoclinic]

AJ Brown for a 2nd is interesting ( I dont like the idea of giving up a first). He'd be better than any WR at 63 provided Vrabel can get the best out of him.

Also 7 years older, much more expensive, and a malcontent.

Hard no for me.

 

[manxman2601]

Also 7 years older, much more expensive, and a malcontent.

Hard no for me.

I agree to a degree. My push back would be:

1. He’s the same age as Crosby, the money would be similar and the draft capital would be cheaper.

2. As the playoffs showed, our offense needs more help than the defense

3. A malcontent with the Eagles and Hurts yes. Would he be with Vrabel and Maye? I’m less sure.

A second is the most I’d give up for him though. I wouldn’t be happy trading a first for him.

 

[stelfans]

My issue with a Crosby trade is that there are going to be a lot of teams in that market I suspect and we're offering a worse first rounder than any of them meaning we will have to overpay compared to the competition.

AJ Brown for a 2nd is interesting ( I dont like the idea of giving up a first). He'd be better than any WR at 63 provided Vrabel can get the best out of him.

How about?

31. Mesidor, Parker or Z. Young
63. AJ Brown
95. Best linebacker, CB or safety available. (Stukes, Kyle Louis, Wheatley, Genesis Smith spring to mind as possibles)

Not sure i agree with that. I dont see that many teams in a position to give up a 1st and more for a 29yo guy. Everyone will look into the FA options first. There's about 3 or 4 guys there, after that those possible teams will be even less.
But thats why im not sure. As much as i like Crosby and his fit with this team, we have too many holes to fix. Thinking about cost vs benefit and longterm outlook, think i would prefer to target aj brown before crosby if all it takes is a 2nd or 3rd.

 

[stelfans]

Also 7 years older, much more expensive, and a malcontent.

Hard no for me.

The arguments would be that he didnt seem to be a malcontent with vrabel in tennesse. And 7 years of elite production vs a rookie that could be a league MVP or the biggest bust in the league history.

Im not completely sold but i 1000% trust Vrabel judgment on that one.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I think you just have to keep perspective that this time last year we had arguably the worst roster in the NFL and it's unrealistic to think we're going to have it churned all the way over to what we want at every key position in a matter of two offseasons. It's ok if we don't end up with home run picks at our need areas that happen to be two of the premium positions in football at #31/#63 or maneuvering from those spots.

At RT, Moses is still an ok starter. We're not desperate for an immediate starter here. But ideally you'd like to have a high level player there eventually because of how important the position is in general and how much Maye rolls to the right. But it's not the end of the world if this spot goes unaddressed this year and next year you're looking for a replacement (since Moses is unlikely to play the 3rd year of his deal IMO).

At DE, we don't need a "home run" pick to contribute. Landry looked toast after the injury, Jennings is a JAG, Chaisson is a FA and Ponder/Swinson are depth guys who may/may not develop. Sure you want the home run every down starter, but a good rotational guy would help here too. It's also damn near unfathomable that the position isn't addressed to some degree in FA too.

 

[manxman2601]

Jennings is a JAG,

I agree with almost all of what you said but I just want to address this. Yes, as a pass rusher he is, but he is strong against the run and I think that's worth keeping on the roster. He's one of the few back of roster guys on the defense I wouldn't want to cut. He played an important role at the end of the season.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

I agree with almost all of what you said but I just want to address this. Yes, as a pass rusher he is, but he is strong against the run and I think that's worth keeping on the roster. He's one of the few back of roster guys on the defense I wouldn't want to cut. He played an important role at the end of the season.

Fair. What I mean is just that he's a depth, rotational guy. Very situational against the run, like you said. Should probably be a 4th DE.

I think whether or not he gets cut depends on what they do. they save $3.9M for cutting him. If they re-sign Chaisson and add a starting player in free agency, that's pretty tough amount of cash to commit to the 4th DE (assuming Landry has surgery and is on track to play next year) and if they're being aggressive elsewhere in free agency it might just make sense. But he's not a guy you cut just to cut.

 

[DaBruinz]

@manxman2601 - I'd posit that a 3-down LB who can actually cover a TE is a a bigger need than Edge. The Pats biggest issue on defense was that they couldn't cover TEs/RBs out of the backfield.

@Hugepatsfan - I've gotta disagree with your assessment about Jennings. While Jennings will never be an All-Pro who puts up 15 sacks and 60 pressures, He's an above average, all-around, Edge guy. He can rush the passer but his best work is done setting the Edge against the run. In fact, he's the Best Edge at that.

I'll also disagree with your claim that Ponder is just a depth guy. Ponder made HUGE strides this year. He went from after-thought UDFA to forcing the team to keep him on the 53 being a regular part of the Edge Rotation by week 10, averaging 23 snaps a game as a rookie.

In 210 pass rushing snaps (including the play-offs), the 23yr old racked up 4 sacks, 3 QB hits and 17 hurries. That's a pressure every 8.75 snaps. By Comparison, Chaisson wracked up 10.5 sacks, 18 hits, and 44 hurries on 534 pass rushing snaps. That's a pressure on every 7.4 snaps.

One of the biggest knocks on Ponder when he came in was that he was raw. So, I fully expect Ponder to move closer to 50% snaps next season.

OH.. another area that Ponder excelled in is that he was only credited with 1 missed tackle on the season. Compared to Chaisson who had 19..

 

[Rdforty2]

I didnt see the discussion about RT being one of the biggest needs, but Id definitely be in the camp that its not a need. At least a pressing one.

Morgan Moses was solid this year and if he doesnt retire(which doesnt seem like he is), hes starting at RT. Therefore, its not one of our top 2 needs.

Yeah, maybe we could use a better developmental guy than Bryant. Take a guy in the 3rd or 4th. But that doesnt make it one of the top 2 needs. You could even completely wait at RT and just draft one early next year to plug an immediate hole.

LG is so much more of a need than RT to me. Edge is definitely a need. Two of them. A WR1 is a glaring need. Even S is a bigger need than RT to me.

 

[mayoclinic]

Long term RT is a huge need. Moses will almost certainly not be with the team beyond 2026, and I don't want to be in the same boat with RT in 2027 that we were with LT in 2025. This is a great draft to get a long-term starter, as there are at least 6-7 top 50 prospects.

The OL is still in flux, and protecting Drake Maye is the highest priority.

 

[Rdforty2]

Long term RT is a huge need. Moses will almost certainly not be with the team beyond 2026, and I don't want to be in the same boat with RT in 2027 that we were with LT in 2025. This is a great draft to get a long-term starter, as there are at least 6-7 top 50 prospects.

The OL is still in flux, and protecting Drake Maye is the highest priority.

I dont think protecting Drake Maye in 2027 and beyond makes RT a prime need in 2026.

This team is a super bowl contender with multiple holes. I dont think you can afford to sit your 1st or 2nd round pick entirely on the bench in '26.

Plugging in a RT is not as hard as plugging in an LT. So they team wont be in the same spot in '27 as they were last year because its easier to fill the spot. Like you said, there are quite a few RT prospects available in the 1st 2 rounds. There usually arent that many LT capable available.

And then, back to the fact that I didnt say ignore the spot. Addressing it in the 3rd or 4th round is much more palatable as a developmental guy. I believe you need a bigger impact in '26 from your 1st and 2nd round picks.

I agree with addressing the OL, but to me, thats LG. Go get a veteran to plug in there. Seumalo, Vera-Tucker, Edwards. You can either keep Bradbury and let Wilson develop at C as a backup or slide Wilson in at C. I think thats an upgrade on the '25 OL, especially with expected growth on Campbell. Then take a guy in the middle rounds to learn from Moses at RT. Improved starting lineup, improved depth.

 

[mayoclinic]

We disagree. That's fine.

 

[stelfans]

I didnt see the discussion about RT being one of the biggest needs, but Id definitely be in the camp that its not a need. At least a pressing one.

Morgan Moses was solid this year and if he doesnt retire(which doesnt seem like he is), hes starting at RT. Therefore, its not one of our top 2 needs.

Yeah, maybe we could use a better developmental guy than Bryant. Take a guy in the 3rd or 4th. But that doesnt make it one of the top 2 needs. You could even completely wait at RT and just draft one early next year to plug an immediate hole.

LG is so much more of a need than RT to me. Edge is definitely a need. Two of them. A WR1 is a glaring need. Even S is a bigger need than RT to me.

2 problems with that. You aren’t finding a starter RT in rounds 3 or 4, no point in wasting picks. If the point is to have a guy on the 53 roster Bryant is there. And b)Moses could either be serviceable next year or he could retire in camp, not a bet I’d be willing to take without quality insurance behind him.