2026 Draft: Safety

[manxman2601]

Just watched some highlights and game tape from Kamari Ramsey of USC. Some have discussed him as a first rounder on some formats and i see why. I came away with a different opinion though. Kind of mixed.

Ramsey has all of the physical tools you'd want in a safety. Speed, Power, IQ, Quickness, deceptively good size for his height. So checks those boxes. But IMO his game tape is hit or miss. He seems to be at his best in coverage vs a TE, WR or RB... he's good vs all of them. He also reads the QB well and when in the passing game shows good anticipation. He has the speed to rush from the edge on a safety blitz and power to make it hard on RBs if they manage to get hands all them. He also is aware of play design, at least certain ones. He usually knows who to cover in a bunch formation and sniffs out QB dump offs. All that is usually pretty good. When he can either just cover or know where the play is going before hand and read it clearly pre snap he is very good.

HOWEVER. If it is a play that extends or has no clear design he IMO starts to get lost quickly. Once he doesn't know for sure what to do and is not in 1 on 1 coverage he seems kind of lost out there. Particularly on running plays. His gap discipline is very questionable and he really (I think) needs to read the play. He can't feel it. Also him 1 on 1 in space is bad news. If he gets a head of steam on a still target he will make an impressive looking tackle. If he needs to take someone down in open space who has any kind of quickness... it seems to me like he has very little chance. He lost badly on every true open field tackle I saw that was an even match.

He also has a lot of trouble getting off WR blocks. He rarely sheds them from what i saw and while he seems to have power, it isn't enough to position himself to make a play on the guy running off the block.

Long story short. He is a very talented kid. Needs to get stronger IMO. Good at the things he is good at and really needs to work on the things he is bad at. And i want to be clear. For a guy with so much hype. I was not expecting to see his weaknesses be this weak. While you can try to put him in position to do the things he is good at, you can't always protect a safety like that.

I give him a 4th round grade. Half of his game is borderline first round level. He has talent, but too many big holes right now. Seems like a bit of a project to me with big potential upside.

The thing that puts me off him is that he just isn't being used as a conventional safety this year. He's a slot corner. 191 snaps in the slot and only 68 at FS.

 

[mayoclinic]

 

[p8ryts]

Find us a free safety with sideline-to-sideline speed, great instincts, anticipation and reaction.

 

[mayoclinic]

I see 5 within possible reach:

1. Jelani McDonald
2. Zakee Wheatley
3. Dillon Thieneman
4. Amare Farrell
5. Rod Moore

 

[BobDigital]

So I looked at Keon Sabb in depth. Wasn't easy as often he was off the screen and i don't have A22. So I had to do a bit of guess work as well as look at twice as much tape as i usually do. Anyway.

First impression is this. He is not overly impressive. I've seen him everywhere from a high 2nd to a low 4th. I think he belongs more in the lower category. His speed is good, not great. Power is so so. I rarely see high end instincts/feel for the play. His style of deep free safety (AKA last line of defense) did not impress me with his ability to execute it. I saw him take more questionable angles than I'd like. It wasn't a constant thing but for a guy whose main strong point would be playing center field, you'd expect that to be more solid by this point. His coverage ability is pretty good when asked to be on a guy. Not bad, not great. NFL quality but nothing special IMO.

When he comes down to play at the line he rarely impresses. I recall one play he did a safety blitz, ran around the blocking too much, didn't even touch the QB, and the QB ran to where the blitz just came from with Sabb trying to catch up and not really closing all that fast. He would have caught him eventually, but his claims of elite speed do not hold up. It is good, not elite. Also not an amazing tackler.

It's tough cause when Sabb does his job well it doesn't usually make any highlight reels, when he fails it sticks out badly. But i saw enough bad plays to give me pause here when it comes to him being NFL ready. He is not. He also doesn't seem to me to be an elite athlete. Good, better than average, but not elite. So that is a little less reason to draft him if you hope to coach him up and one day play to his upside.

So i am left with these questions. What is his ceiling? His floor? How fast can he reach his ceiling? If he can't reach his ceiling how much does he need to improve from his floor to of decent value at the NFL level?

Answers IMO. Pretty good starter. Not NFL roster worthy. He is probably a 2 year project to reach that ceiling if he can. He won't need to improve too much to qualify as a okay depth piece, this he should be able to hit. To be a high quality rotation guy isn't a big ask either. A decent starter? We will see. He has a a chance... but i feel less confident about that now than before my deeper look into him.

So with all that in mind. Right now i can't give him all that high a grade. He's a 4th rounder.

 

[BobDigital]

By the way, how i grade guys.

1st round grades - I'll leave QBs out of the thing as they have their own tier system really.

Elite/Top 10 (often less than 10 players) - Pro bowl ready more or less.
Top 16 - Instant good starter, hopefully making pro bowls soon.
Top 32 - Close to instant good Starter/Very likely good starters but with at least solid starter floors/Injured possible elite players.

2nd round should also likely start for you. Not automatically early, but should see serious minutes some time their rookie year.

Top 48 - Likely good starter very soon. pro bowl upside but more shaky floors.
Top 64 - Likely a good starter very soon.

3rd round is where back ups start to come in.

Top 80 - Possible good starter/Very likely solid starter/Elite back ups specialist/higher risk good starters
top 96+comps - Likely solid starter at some point/very good back ups/Good specialist and role players/injured potentially good starters.

4th round - Hopefully a solid starter. Hopefully a very good specialist/Likely solid role player/Higher risk solid starters.

5th round - high risk solid starters/injured hopefully solid starters/elite project players/Elite STers

6th round - good project players with elite traits.

7th round - much more shaky project players with less elite traits.

I am sure if i thought about it more i'd massage it a little here and there... but this is generally how i do my grades.

 

[manxman2601]

By the way, how i grade guys.

1st round grades - I'll leave QBs out of the thing as they have their own tier system really.

Elite/Top 10 (often less than 10 players) - Pro bowl ready more or less.
Top 16 - Instant good starter, hopefully making pro bowls soon.
Top 32 - Close to instant good Starter/Very likely good starters but with at least solid starter floors/Injured possible elite players.

2nd round should also likely start for you. Not automatically early, but should see serious minutes some time their rookie year.

Top 48 - Likely good starter very soon. pro bowl upside but more shaky floors.
Top 64 - Likely a good starter very soon.

3rd round is where back ups start to come in.

Top 80 - Possible good starter/Very likely solid starter/Elite back ups specialist/higher risk good starters
top 96+comps - Likely solid starter at some point/very good back ups specialist.

4th round - Hopefully a solid starter. Hopefully a very good specialist/Likely decent role player/Higher risk solid starters.

5th round - high risk solid starters/injured hopefully solid starters/elite project players/Elite STers

6th round - good project players with elite traits.

7th round - much more shaky project players with less elite traits.

I am sure if i thought about it more i'd massage it a little here and there... but this is generally how i do my grades.

I've been thinking about how I would use a 6th/7th round pick i was a GM. I would use it for prospects who are excellent/elite at a specific talent but limited in other areas. A speedy WR, a slot only small WR like Chism, an elite blocking TE, an elite core special teamer etc. 6th and 7th round picks are a roll of the dice so, unless you're desperate for depth, why not use them on prospects who really offer something positive to the roster.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would also use them on "moonshots". Guys with elite athleticism whose production doesn't match, or relative newcomers who are raw. Low probability, but high reward if they work out.

Like that Kent St. QB with the absurd 3-cone. Converted to WR, I believe. Can't recall the name ...

 

[manxman2601]

I would also use them on "moonshots". Guys with elite athleticism whose production doesn't match, or relative newcomers who are raw. Low probability, but high reward if they work out.

Like that Kent St. QB with the absurd 3-cone. Converted to WR, I believe. Can't recall the name ...

I wanted one like that last year.

 

[silentone]

I've been thinking about how I would use a 6th/7th round pick i was a GM. I would use it for prospects who are excellent/elite at a specific talent but limited in other areas. A speedy WR, a slot only small WR like Chism, an elite blocking TE, an elite core special teamer etc. 6th and 7th round picks are a roll of the dice so, unless you're desperate for depth, why not use them on prospects who really offer something positive to the roster.

Late round picks (6th & 7th rounders) - what I like....

- I like trading them for a pick next year one round earlier if possible as I think that creates surplus value, so a 6th this year for a 5th next year. Especially in years when we pick late.
- I like your idea of specific talent that can be utilized
- I like players that play positions with the highest salaries such as QB, WR, Tackle because if you hit, you create tremendous surplus value due to the low salary.
- I like players with short term problems that might be correctable where the market may have overreacted, a season ending injury, a suspension, an arrest for smoking pot, etc.
- I like players that may have been playing the wrong position in college.
- I like players that are team captains

 

[manxman2601]

 

[mayoclinic]

Penalty flag.

 

[manxman2601]

Do you think Michael Taaffe is popular with his teammates? If you get a chance, give a listen to his interviews. He might be one of the most mature guys I've heard coming out of college. Mccourty-esque.

 

[manxman2601]

Penalty flag.

Tone set though.

 

[silentone]

I'm excited to keep following this thread (as well as the other positional draft threads) to see how your lists look as the draft gets nearer. Thank you for all your work and willingness to share. Love your thoughts on any of the following.

- Safeties get paid some of the lowest average salaries. It seems to me, it's hard to create surplus value drating them high. I think I'd prefer the Pats to focus on higher valued positions early or trade down (or both). I could be completely wrong as maybe it's easy to identify elite safeties which reduces the risk of the waste of draft capital and salary cap. A lot of the best ones were picked in rounds one (Reed, Polamalu, Thomas, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Jenkins, McCourty) and two (Weddle, Baker).

- Is there enough safety depth this year that you can draft them in rounds four and five that you are excited about their prospects, especially round four since we have two picks in that round.

- Is it rare or fairly often for teams to draft college cornerbacks and move them to safety and does that give you even a bigger pool to pick from and does that imply you can do well in the later rounds?

 

[manxman2601]

I'm excited to keep following this thread (as well as the other positional draft threads) to see how your lists look as the draft gets nearer. Thank you for all your work and willingness to share. Love your thoughts on any of the following.

- Safeties get paid some of the lowest average salaries. It seems to me, it's hard to create surplus value drating them high. I think I'd prefer the Pats to focus on higher valued positions early or trade down (or both). I could be completely wrong as maybe it's easy to identify elite safeties which reduces the risk of the waste of draft capital and salary cap. A lot of the best ones were picked in rounds one (Reed, Polamalu, Thomas, Smith, Fitzpatrick, Jenkins, McCourty) and two (Weddle, Baker).

- Is there enough safety depth this year that you can draft them in rounds four and five that you are excited about their prospects, especially round four since we have two picks in that round.

- Is it rare or fairly often for teams to draft college cornerbacks and move them to safety and does that give you even a bigger pool to pick from and does that imply you can do well in the later rounds?

Good questions.

On taking safeties early, I still think if you're looking for the athleticism/size combo that you want from a starter then you're probably having to look earlier than day three but there's certainly good value on day two to be had. You're right about safety value. I think you're looking at a more cereberal type safety if you're taking one in the 4th round. One that wins with brain rather than brawn.

as for converting CBs. I think the reason we don't see it more often is a size thing. You really want your safeties to be 205 pound plus and 6'2" or better and there aren't many of them.

 

[mayoclinic]

 

[manxman2601]

 

[mayoclinic]

Texas Football safety Jelani McDonald shines in win at Mississippi State

Texas Football safety Jelani McDonald took his game to another level against Mississippi State. And it was sorely needed,

longhornswire.usatoday.com

 

[mayoclinic]