Vegas has Pats at 7.5 wins. (Updated: 8.5)

[everlong]

If the OL plays like it did against Washington, and yes it wasn't their A-Team we were going against, we'll win 11 games. How far we revert to last year knocks us back to 7 wins. I think there were numerous games we could have won with better game management last year and that will certainly better as will having a half dozen presnap penalties per game.

 

[lancerman]

I need to see more of the passing game to make a prediction. We can be a ground and pound team, but if we become one dimensional again, it's going to put a hard ceiling. Teams were selling out against the run last year because they knew we couldn't beat them passing.

Diggs recovery will be huge, the line buying Maye reasonable time will be huge, Maye taking a major step forward will be huge. All of those are big questionmarks as of today. Even a respectable passing game, maybe even slightly below average, would have been the difference in a few games last year.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

I think 8’s a little low given:
- it’s such a different complement of players and coaches, so referring to last years win total is meaningless
- we have so many weak opponents on this year’s schedule - every bad team basically
- we’re definitely going to put a pro operation out there this year. The talent level is good, very good coaching staff, and I don’t see us beating ourselves much.
So I think 10 wins if we have an average amount of luck.

Team chemistry alone can overcome adversity and take a team deep into the playoffs.

We've seen it before many times in every decade of Patriots history.

This decade is due, isn't it?

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

If the OL plays like it did against Washington, and yes it wasn't their A-Team we were going against, we'll win 11 games. How far we revert to last year knocks us back to 7 wins. I think there were numerous games we could have won with better game management last year and that will certainly better as will having a half dozen presnap penalties per game.

Hell yes I want us to be a smart team.

 

[Actual Pats Fan]

Team chemistry alone can overcome adversity and take a team deep into the playoffs.

We've seen it before many times in every decade of Patriots history.

This decade is due, isn't it?

Oh, that's right, the 70's. I'm sorry, I keep forgetting about Ben Dreith. My bad.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I think 8’s a little low given:
- it’s such a different complement of players and coaches, so referring to last years win total is meaningless
- we have so many weak opponents on this year’s schedule - every bad team basically
- we’re definitely going to put a pro operation out there this year. The talent level is good, very good coaching staff, and I don’t see us beating ourselves much.
So I think 10 wins if we have an average amount of luck.

I said "6--10 wins" is "measurably probable. I'm going with eight because of the unknowns/unknowables and the randomness of what can happen during an NFL season.
I've been posting out here for 20 years and long ago decided it was pure folly to do game by game predictions. A team loses games it "should have won" and wins games "it should have lost."

 

[jmt57]

Under Scenario: 8-9
W1: Win -- Raiders at home
W2: Loss - Dolphins away
W3: Loss - Steelers home
W4: Win -- Panthers home
W5: Loss - Bills away
W6: Win -- Saints away
W7: Win -- Titans away
W8: Win -- Browns home
W9: Loss - Falcons home
W10: Loss - Bucs away
W11: Win -- Jets home
W12: Loss - Bengals away
W13: Win -- Giants home
W14: Bye Week
W15: Loss - Bills home
W16: Loss - Ravens away
W17: Loss - Jets away
W18: Win -- Dolphins home



Over Scenario: 9-8, 10-7 or 11-6
Week 3 changes to a home win vs Pittsburgh
Week 9 changes to a home win vs Atlanta
Week 17 changes to a road win vs Jets


There are always a couple WTF games, but for this exercise I'll say the upset wins and upset losses cancel each other out.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is an upset loss as part of that three-game road trip, for example.
The most critical junctures appear to be the three bolded games above.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I predicted 7 wins a month ago... now I'm leaning to 8 as well. Too many question marks right now to go higher.

Yeah. I feel like I'm raining on a lot of parades (no pun intended) in this thread. But I think ten W's is the stretch estimate, six is a worst case and eight is the likely. One of my worries is that the mediots like Cowherd are pumping up the expectations...putting them in the Playoffs, etc. The Pats have a target on their back because of that stuff.

I'd rather they be underestimated than overhyped. Worked out pretty good in 2001.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Team chemistry alone can overcome adversity and take a team deep into the playoffs.

We've seen it before many times in every decade of Patriots history.

This decade is due, isn't it?

"Team chemistry" takes you a lot further if you have the GOAT.
In the NFL, nothing's "due" to nobody never.