Vegas has Pats at 7.5 wins. (Updated: 8.5)

[Steve102]

Vrabel's mantra Run the Football play Tough Defense. What did Parcells once say?? Any Team that does those two things effectively will be in every game.

And I think they will do exactly that.

 

[p8ryts]

With the exception of the Bills and Ravens, they should at least have a chance in the other games.

 

[Ring 6]

With a -134 which indicates they are hedging slightly towards us being over. But not enough to give them 8.5 o/u. So if you bet 100 and hit the over you gain $175. Bet the under at +108 and gain $208

Vegas seems confident the Pats are slightly more likely than not to win. 8 games. No more no less. But are also much more likely to only win 7 than win 9.

Pats get the Browns, Raiders, NYG, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers at home. Bengals, Bucs, Titans, Saints and Ravens on the road. Then of course 2x Dolphins, Bills, Jets.

Most of us from what I've gathered have the Pats better than 8-9. Are we overestimating this team or being underestimated? Personally i think the later.

Personally while i haven't betted in a while I'm considering take this. Even giving up another game to get a better pay out at 8,5o/u

The only games i think we are clearly inferior in are Bills x 2 and Ravens. Every other game is a very slight dog to favorite IMO. Bucs are primed for regression. Mayfield isn't having 2 years like that in a row. Bengals are scary on offense, but has their D improved all that much? They will be a winning team, but a true contender who should be a clear favorite over the Pats? I'm not sold. Steelers made some upgrades overall to the 52 but got worse at the QB spot. May be a net loss. Some of those bad teams from last year improved, but i don't think close to as much as we did.

Wins: ]@ Jets Jets Dolphins Falcons, Panthers, NYG, Raiders, Browns, @Saints, @Titans 10
Losses: @Bills Bills @Dolphins @Ravens @Bengals @Bucs Steelers (I think we are better than the Steelers, but gotta drop 1) 7

First Vegas doesn’t think we win 7-8 games, Vegas has the line there because the bets so far mean that’s where they can get 50/50 on over or under.
Secondly there isn’t a lot of nfl o/u action at this time of year so the lines are not very responsive to teams having improved in the off season.
On other words, lines don’t change because the team got better, lines change when betting is based upon the team being better.

So I don’t think it’s a matter of over or underestimating it’s just where the money is so far.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Yea they "feel" 8-9 or 9-8 to me. They seem better than 7-10 which would only be a 3 game improvement from last year. 10 wins or above seems like they are overachieving.

Offensively they are better
Defensively they are better
Coaching they are WAY better

There is hope and it should be a fun year.

And both the Dolphins and Jets are worse.

 

[Pape]

right now, before camp etc, i am slightly more optimistic than i was last year... got us at the 8-9 mark... if we realistically think we will do better, a few things will have to break our way... Barmore comes back, Diggs arrives healthy, Campbell is plug and play on the line... and toss in a few assorted others to add to that mix...

Pre-Camp Prediction:

Overall 8-9

Division - 2-4
Buffalo Bills 0-2
Miami Dolphins 1-1
New York Jets 1-1

Rest of the field
Atlanta Falcons W
Baltimore Ravens L
Carolina Panthers W
Cincinnati Bengals L
Cleveland Browns W
New York Giants W
Las Vegas Raiders L
Pittsburgh Steelers L
New Orleans Saints W
Tampa Bay Buccaneers L
Tennessee Titans W

 

[yukon cornelius]

i'd jump on the over now before folks actually realize this team is better and has a weak schedule, and that line shifts based on the action

 

[RobertWeathers]

And both the Dolphins and Jets are worse.

Fins seem to have had a decent draft but I agree....they are on the decline.

Jets are the Jets.

 

[ViperGTS]

We'll know in TC where this season is going. I'm sitting at 7 ish wins this season, until I see what happens. If they look good, like I expect them to look, then I could add 3 to that number. 10 gets you in the playoffs imo.

 

[Steve102]

With the exception of the Bills and Ravens, they should at least have a chance in the other games.

I think they'll be in those three games, and I wouldn't be shocked if they get one.

 

[XLIX]

I gave the list a very quick glance so please forgive me if I missed anything, but....

It looks to me like Vegas predicts the Patriots are the most improved team, being the only one whose W/L total is 3.5 greater than what they had last year. On the flip side, the only team being predicted to do 3.5 games worse than last year is the overachieving KC Chiefs, who will not be winning 15 again this year.

 

[NashuaPats]

We’re going to have a lot of new players including rookies in key roles as well as new offensive and defensive strategies. I’ll be happy with 8 wins with a teams that improves throughout the season.

 

[rochrist]

Take the over.

 

[everlong]

Breaking the season into portions and realizing we're not that much better or worst than everyone on our schedule......

Let's say we go .500 in the division. Sweeping the Jets, splitting with the Fins (@Miami is never easy and Tua when healthy has had their number) and sweeping the Jets seems very plausible. So that's 3-3

The home games we should be favored against the Browns and Giants. The Raiders, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers we are probably slight favorites in all these games but I don't think any of them are locks. Let's say we win the two very winnable games and split the other 4, that's 4-2.

Bengals, Bucs and Ravens we'll be underdogs. Titans and Saints small favorites. Lets say we go 1-2 in the definate underdog games and we only split the two we are favored in. So that's 2-3

Taking this conservative approach that's 3-3, 4-2 and 2-3 which puts us at 9-8. I think that's the realistic number assuming all of our acquistions and draft choice have average years. If they underperform in aggragate the record goes down and over it goes up. The variance is 7-11 games.

I think we'll also have a better idea when the schedule is announced. I'm hoping for instance we don't draw somebody with great pass rushers early so that the line and Campbell in particular have time to adjust and jell. Not going to Miami in September or early October would be anohter gift, and so on.

 

[rochrist]

Breaking the season into portions and realizing we're not that much better or worst than everyone on our schedule......

Let's say we go .500 in the division. Sweeping the Jets, splitting with the Fins (@Miami is never easy and Tua when healthy has had their number) and sweeping the Jets seems very plausible. So that's 3-3

The home games we should be favored against the Browns and Giants. The Raiders, Falcons, Panthers and Steelers we are probably slight favorites in all these games but I don't think any of them are locks. Let's say we win the two very winnable games and split the other 4, that's 4-2.

Bengals, Bucs and Ravens we'll be underdogs. Titans and Saints small favorites. Lets say we go 1-2 in the definate underdog games and we only split the two we are favored in. So that's 2-3

Taking this conservative approach that's 3-3, 4-2 and 2-3 which puts us at 9-8. I think that's the realistic number assuming all of our acquistions and draft choice have average years. If they underperform in aggragate the record goes down and over it goes up. The variance is 7-11 games.

I think we'll also have a better idea when the schedule is announced. I'm hoping for instance we don't draw somebody with great pass rushers early so that the line and Campbell in particular have time to adjust and jell. Not going to Miami in September or early October would be anohter gift, and so on.

That's pretty much where I've got it, with the provision that breaks either way could add or lose a game. Stay healthy and catch a break or two and they become a 10 win team.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Take that bet. Barring injury, they are winning 8 games minimum.

 

[n1997y]

i'd jump on the over now before folks actually realize this team is better and has a weak schedule, and that line shifts based on the action

I’d like to, but haven’t found where it’s being offered yet. Any pointers?

 

[UrbanCowboy]

They aren't winning 13 games, your grace, even with a softer schedule.

Didn't you have em at 12?

 

[Steve102]

Didn't you have em at 12?

I did, but @PatsFan2 said they'd split with the Bills, giving them 13. I legit think the floor is 8, the ceiling is 11, even after my little exercise of W's and L's.

 

[BTTA]

Guys please be careful with financial commitments right now. We are all susceptible to post-draft cognitive bias. It is very easy to over value the impact the draft picks will have, the FA's will have, and the new coaches will have. All three of those will need serious time to get to full performance.

 

[UrbanCowboy]

I did, but @PatsFan2 said they'd split with the Bills, giving them 13. I legit think the floor is 8, the ceiling is 11, even after my little exercise of W's and L's.

It's funny how saying 13 wins does indeed seem ludicrous, but when you do go through the games one by one, it's not so crazy. I bet Redskins fans thought the same thing last year and they won 12