The Case Against Eliot Wolf

[Urgent]

I think there is a solid data-based case to dismiss Eliot Wolf.
I know it's early in his GM tenure, and there may be some longer-term strategy behind the really questionable handling of offseason spending on OL and WR.

But here are the facts.
He's not entirely in his first year with the Patriots.
Eliot Wolf was a consultant in scouting in 2020-2021, then Director of Scouting in 2022-2023, and then GM in 2024.
So, while Bill was the official GM, Eliot was charged with providing player recommendations and influencing his final decisions on free agency and the draft.
Let's look at the results.

Red is underperformed based on the acquisition cost, green is overperformed.
No "underperforms" for fourth round draft on, but you'd like to see one hit a year at least from that group.

2022 Draft
Cole Strange
Tyquan Thornton
Marcus Jones
Jack Jones
Pierre Strong
Bailey Zappe
Kevin Harris
Sam Roberts
Chasen Hinds
Andrew Stueber

2022 Free Agency
DaVante Parker
Mack Wilson
Raekwon McMillan
DaMarcus Mitchell
Jabrill Peppers

2022 Key Departures
Jarrett Stidham
Shaq Mason
Ted Karras

2023 Draft
Christian Gonzalez
Keion White
Marte Mapu
Jake Andrews
Chad Ryland
Sidy Sow
Atonio Mafi
Kayshon Boutte
Bryce Barringer
Demario Douglas
Ameer Speed
Isaiah Bolden

2023 Free Agency
Ezekiel Elliot
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Tyrone Wheatley Jr
Riley Reiff
Calvin Anderson

2023 Key Departures
Pierre Strong
Jakobi Meyers
Johnnu Smith
Nick Folk

2024 Draft
Drake Maye
Ja'Lynn Polk
Caedan Wallace
Layden Robinson
Javon Baker
Marcellas Dial
Joe Milton
Jaheim Bell

2024 Free Agency
Jacoby Brissett
Antonio Gibson
JaMycal Hasty
Austin Hooper
Chukwama Okorafor
Nick Leverett
Michael Jordan
Christian Elliss
Marco Wilson
Dell Pettus
JaLinn Hawkins
Joey Slye

2024 Key Departures
DaVante Parker
JuJu Smith Schuster
Mike Gesicki
Trent Brown
Lawrence Guy
Matthew Judon
Chad Ryland

Seven hits - including Drake Maye, which was a complete layup.
Sixteen misses. More if you include mistakes of omission.
You can debate - well, I really think it's eight hits. Or you can't count over-drafting a kicker in the fourth as a miss. Not replacing Lawrence Guy was really a miss. No penalties assessed for the contract decisions on Dugg
Plenty of debate possible.
However, it's a LOT more misses than hits.

While the offense has been terrible, most of us question whether it's the roster more than the coaches. Complete lack of talent across the OL and WR roster.
And that's on Wolf.
The decisions in 2024 were terrible, and the personnel decisions in which he had influence under Bill were terrible.
This draft - too early to evaluate - but signs that all they got was the #3 overall pick.

I would immediately replace Eliot Wolf.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Was thinking about something…there is a parallel between when the Pats mostly stopped drafting well, and Pioli leaving.

 

[PatsFan2]

That 2022 Draft is sickening to me we could have had both George Pickens and Romeo Doubs in that Draft. The Patriots Scouted Romeo Doubs heavily had him in for a visit and passed on him many times... what should have been. I never forgave them for passing on WR George Pickens. You play stupid games you win stupid prizes.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I don't think Wolf is the GM. His title is Executive VP of Player Personnel. RK is the GM.

Chad Ryland is not a disappointment, even though PatsFans and the Boston Sports Media said he was over and over. The Pats gave up on him too early after only one season. PFF ranks Ryland as the 13th kicker out of 43. Our kicker, Slye, is 23rd out of 43. Another coaching and GM failure keeping the wrong kicker. Ryland is young with a huge leg and will only get better.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

That 2022 Draft is sickening to me we could have had both George Pickens and Romeo Doubs in that Draft. The Patriots Scouted Romeo Doubs heavily had him in for a visit and passed on him many times... what should have been. I never forgave them for passing on WR George Pickens. You play stupid games you win stupid prizes.

Passing on McConkey was worse.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Was thinking about something…there is a parallel between when the Pats mostly stopped drafting well, and Pioli leaving.

Pioli was there from 2005-2008 when the problems started which contributed to the 10 year drought.

Then Floyd Reese arrived in 2009, where the drafts magically got better starting in 2010 and 2012. The drafts sucked since he left.

 

[StanleyGrogan]

Its hard to look at that list of free agency players we signed and not want to throw up. He is not talked about much on here but Nick Caserio has quietly done a great job at Houston. I feel he did a decent job when he was here too.

 

[UGAPatsfan]

Floyd was lowkey fantastic. RIP

 

[TomPatriot]

Pioli was there from 2005-2008 when the problems started which contributed to the 10 year drought.

Then Floyd Reese arrived in 2009, where the drafts magically got better starting in 2010 and 2012. The drafts sucked since he left.

He left for a good reason.

Been a long time since the Pats drafted really well. You can see that every week.

 

[Hugepatsfan]

It's tough to really make a compelling positive endorsement of him. Feel like the absolute best you can do is "too soon to judge".

On the FA side, they're sitting on a comical amount of cap space this year. There's really only 3 rationales I can see for that:

1) Wolf and staff thought these players were/are good enough and there wasn't a need to spend money to improve
2) Kraft wouldn't allow more spending
3) Wolf and staff felt that even with a bad team it was best to use this as a "bridge" year and the long term payoff would be better to spend in future years

If it's #1, fire everyone. I find it hard to believe though. If it's #2, there's only so much any GM will be able to do here. If it's #3 and that was explained to the Krafts and ok'd by them, it's hard to turn around and fire him for it. If he tells you it's going to be a rough year and then hopefully turned around later, it's borderline senile to turn around and fire him because year 1 was rough.

I tend to think #3 was the most likely plan. STILL, they could have made a few decent margin signings. They could have drafted a single good player after Maye. And OP highlighted, it's not like he was a part of an operation that was killing it before he got the official designation to make decisions.


End of the day, whether it's Mayo or Wolf or whatever, I just think the entire operation should be replaced. The only argument I can make to keep any of them is that "1 year is too soon to judge", and that's not a strong argument. There's really no sign I can point to of Wolf or Mayo actually having promise in their roles.

 

[farn]

I mean, dude…. The ‘case against E Wolf’ is like choosing ‘smoking is bad for you’ in a health debate. You had it at the title.

 

[Real fan 02]

I don't think Wolf is the GM. His title is Executive VP of Player Personnel. RK is the GM.

Chad Ryland is not a disappointment, even though PatsFans and the Boston Sports Media said he was over and over. The Pats gave up on him too early after only one season. PFF ranks Ryland as the 13th kicker out of 43. Our kicker, Slye, is 23rd out of 43. Another coaching and GM failure keeping the wrong kicker. Ryland is young with a huge leg and will only get better.

Agreed. We were spoiled at the K position for so long... vinateri to Gostowski... Ryland was drafted in the 4th round probably not where he should have gone. (But slye isn't terrible )still thought we should have kept Ryland.

Seems like that top ten ranked offense in 2021 feels like ions ago we now have to focus on kickers.

 

[signbabybrady]

Not to take anything away from Floyd Reese but he was an Advisor it was Caserio who took over after Pioli. I don't think it was a coincidence that Reese was here for some of our better drafts but Nick deserves his credit too.

 

[signbabybrady]

Agreed. We were spoiled at the K position for so long... vinateri to Gostowski... Ryland was drafted in the 4th round probably not where he should have gone. (But slye isn't terrible )still thought we should have kept Ryland.

Seems like that top ten ranked offense in 2021 feels like ions ago we now have to focus on kickers.

Slye sucks

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pioli was there from 2005-2008 when the problems started which contributed to the 10 year drought.

Then Floyd Reese arrived in 2009, where the drafts magically got better starting in 2010 and 2012. The drafts sucked since he left.

Floyd Reese was absolutely the reason the drafting improved after 2008. Bug-eyes Caserio was wet behind the years

2009- Chung, Vollmer, JE11
2010- DMC, Gronk, Spikes, AH, Larsen (11yrs, 88 starts, multiple teams)
2011- Solder, Vereen, Ridley, Cannon
2012-Chandler, High, Ebner, Dennerd

All were legit NFL players and only off-the-field crap derailed the careers of AH, Spikes and Dennerd.

Reese left after 2012 but i'll credit him for setting up 2013 w/ Collins, Ryan, Harmon

 

[Real fan 02]

Slye sucks

He doesn't.. he was making kicks earlier in the season before Drake took over.. he was the offense for a while.. I don't think he sucks.. just my opinion

 

[Real fan 02]

Not to take anything away from Floyd Reese but he was an Advisor it was Caserio who took over after Pioli. I don't think it was a coincidence that Reese was here for some of our better drafts but Nick deserves his credit too.

Agreed caserio was very instrumental in alot of transactions in FA as well. Where does Bill ball washer Lombardi fit in here? Did he do anything other than get fired from every NFL front office job he's every held? He was here for a cup of coffee right?

 

[Huckleberry1]

**** this.

 

[lancerman]

Was thinking about something…there is a parallel between when the Pats mostly stopped drafting well, and Pioli leaving.

I kind a disagree tbh. The second half of the dynasty was really set up from really strong drafts from 2009-2013.

That was right when Pioli left. Pioli was great for the first few years and then he sort of fell off in the mid 2000's and we were right no let him go when we did and it paid off. The issue was that after the initial 5 years, something went to **** and we started flopping.

I have a take that I suspect won't be popular, that Belichick slowly started butting heads with the scouting department and was overruling them on head scratchers and it was just becoming a bit too cute. There were a lot of picks of "well this guy has an injury history or this guy has this one flaw that people think will hurt him, but if that doesn't manifest, the Patriots got a huge steal". And most of the time we lost that gamble.

 

[Pape]

Wolf... he's been hit or miss... replacing him this late in the game though, oof... that could be rough, doesn't seem like it, but free agency and the draft are right around the corner... and if you make a move on wolf, you should replace mayo...

i don't have an issue with the cleaning out of the front office, but if we are going to do it, we should have already done it.