Polian is spot on. Expect some major curveballs

[Grogan14]

Hall of Famer Bill Polian rants about the NFL’s problem with evaluating quarterbacks

Polian explains the disconnect between media analysts and draft choices. He explains the reason why QBs get pushed up the draft.

sports.yahoo.com

All these mock drafts are probably a waste of time

 

[Pape]

Did he say who the Pay-tree-ots should draft?

 

[MrTibbs]

No

 

[mike_usagisan]

I think this part is right:

Asked what that 60 percent for quarterbacks consists of, Polian explained, “The most difficult thing you have to judge with a quarterback is a) his ability to recognize defenses, b) his ability to process it quickly, c) his ability to know where to go with the football and d) the ability to do it accurately under pressure.

“Notice, nowhere in there did I say making off-platform throws, escaping, all that stuff. If a player has that, if it’s (Kansas City quarterback Patrick) Mahomes or a player like that, that’s wonderful. But it’s not required. The other four things are required."

 

[Clonamery]

I think this part is right:

Yes....and look at most of the combine and pro-day stuff is just arm strength and accuracy. After that, the real work begins....

 

[patfanken]

This a will be the first time I will say something nice about Bill Polion....and the last.

He is spot on with his rant, especially as it pertains to QB's. Hard to assess since you are not just projecting what they are now, but where they will be in the future. Mac Jones was an unbridled success after year one. It was hailed as a great pick. 2 years later.... not so .much.

 

[Rob0729]

I think this part is right:

Everyone have become in love with these QBs who can make circus throws, run for 50 yards, extending plays by running around in the backfield for ten seconds, etc. that they totally ignore the fundamentals of the position.

If Mahomes couldn't do all the things Polian said was important like read defense, process information fast, know where to get the ball, etc., he would be Trey Lance or Justin Fields.

 

[Triumph]

Hall of Famer Bill Polian rants about the NFL’s problem with evaluating quarterbacks

Polian explains the disconnect between media analysts and draft choices. He explains the reason why QBs get pushed up the draft.

sports.yahoo.com

All these mock drafts are probably a waste of time

Ive been saying that for years.

All these draft gurus are full of 5hit.

 

[Steve102]

They don’t have the medical; they don’t have the psychological...“So that’s 45 percent of the grade and in the case of quarterbacks, it’s almost 60 percent of the grade. So they have no idea what we’re seeing and doing and they’re painting a false picture. It’s entertainment. As long as fans recognize that it’s entertainment and not information, then everything will be fine. The problem is that some people in that business take themselves seriously and they get upset if you did something that they didn’t anticipate. Then, it’s a reach, then it’s terrible, you don’t know how to manage the draft; this GM’s terrible.”

That's as good of an analysis of the last 3.5 months as any I have seen.

 

[Triumph]

Not a single draft expert called out Mahomes as the pick of a lifetime.

None

 

[mike_usagisan]

Not a single draft expert called out Mahomes as the pick of a lifetime.

None

I think that also highlights that a pick is essentially a guess of how the player is going to perform. They still have a ton of work once they get in the league and through every season and off-season to improve.

 

[AQPE]

I do mock drafts because they are fun. I’m under no illusion that they reflect reality but what I like is that they provide a very high level view of what a variety of other people observe so in that respect I can learn and in so doing improve my enjoyment of watching games.

I 100% agree with Psychopolian, it is right in line with what I’ve felt for a while; I actually posted something along the same lines in Ross12’s recent thread. With that said, it’s also my view that the combination of the training the prospects get in HS and college to be successful at those levels and the sophistication of defensive coaching in the NFL has made it harder than I perceive it to have been in the past for a guy who is greatly lacking in physical ability (such as Mac Jones) to succeed in the NFL. It’s not impossible (see Brock Purdy) but to overcome it the guy needs to be super tough physically, mentally, and emotionally.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Not a single draft expert called out Mahomes as the pick of a lifetime.

But you know who desperately wanted to trade up and draft Mahomes? McAdoo.

New Patriots assistant Ben McAdoo has an impressive resume as QB evaluator

New Patriots assistant Ben McAdoo might come in handy if New England decides to target a quarterback with the No. 3 pick in April.

www.boston.com

 

[Love The Drake]

But you know who desperately wanted to trade up and draft Mahomes? McAdoo.

New Patriots assistant Ben McAdoo has an impressive resume as QB evaluator

New Patriots assistant Ben McAdoo might come in handy if New England decides to target a quarterback with the No. 3 pick in April.

www.boston.com

Let Macadoo do. What he do.

 

[Brotherblues]

I'll expand on something I've said before:

If you don't crack top 10 or 12 in the league, you're considered a bust at QB. A top 25 WR or CB or IOL is a very good player. The 25th QB is trash.

In other positions, guys are cycled out of the top of the hierarchy by age 30. The better QBs are now expected to play at a high level at age 37 and beyond. This makes many of the spots in the top 10-12 very much set in stone for a LONG time, adding an extra barrier of entry into the elite sphere.

I'm not a scout or a former GM, but this is common sense math as to why drafting a QB is so much harder than other positions.

 

[lancerman]

Not a single draft expert called out Mahomes as the pick of a lifetime.

None

They didn't, but to Polian's point, he's right. Mahomes ended up working his ass off and became a smart QB who makes the right reads. That probably manifested most in year 3 of his career where you saw him take the mental jump in his game. Prior to that he kinda benefited from people not gameplanning properly for his physical intangibles.

 

[Brotherblues]

Prior to that he kinda benefited from people not gameplanning properly for his physical intangibles.

I have tangible confusion

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I do mock drafts because they are fun. I’m under no illusion that they reflect reality but what I like is that they provide a very high level view of what a variety of other people observe so in that respect I can learn and in so doing improve my enjoyment of watching games.

I 100% agree with Psychopolian, it is right in line with what I’ve felt for a while; I actually posted something along the same lines in Ross12’s recent thread. With that said, it’s also my view that the combination of the training the prospects get in HS and college to be successful at those levels and the sophistication of defensive coaching in the NFL has made it harder than I perceive it to have been in the past for a guy who is greatly lacking in physical ability (such as Mac Jones) to succeed in the NFL. It’s not impossible (see Brock Purdy) but to overcome it the guy needs to be super tough physically, mentally, and emotionally.

That leads me back to a bit from Holley's book on the Pats early dynasty. IIRC, Brady was in the weight room in early 2001 (off season or pre-season) and he was discussing reading defenses with some of the defensive players and a newly signed free agent veteran asked who he was. When he found out he was the backup QB, he was shocked as Brady was far ahead of many others he had seen in terms of recognizing defenses and telling his own defensive payers what he was processing. (If I have it wrong, I'm sure somebody will correct me). In this draft McCarthy is I think is the only one who has had to make line calls and adjustments as an NFL QB will have to do.... Not saying they'll draft him but it wouldn't be a shock.

 

[Ross12]

Polian is a sack of ****, but he's 100% correct here and I have to credit him for saying it. To build on the quote @mike_usagisan posted above - Mac Jones was great at A) recognizing a defense, B) processing, C) knowing where to go with the ball, but failed spectacularly at D) doing it accurately under pressure. Unfortunately he was not pressured very much behind that Alabama line, so it was probably hard to determine how he'd do, but it was worth a try. If they had given him a grade A+ offensive line, would he have panned out better? Coaching woes aside, yeah probably. But that's not realistic either - OL injuries are frequent so you need to be able to operate with pressure.

Minding the above points, Drake Maye is probably your best pick. But they all have their warts to some extent. Maye just best checks the most important core boxes and his issues are things you can fix with time, if he puts the effort in. At the same time, maybe someone like McCarthy or Bo Nix are better at some of these things than we realize, because to Polian's point, we don't have all the info. Were they limited by the scheme they were in, or by what the coaches demanded they do?

 

[The Gr8est]

I think this part is right:

So then…..

It should be McCarthy.