Paul Perillo Made an Excellent Point on Mac vs. Zappe

[venecol]

I never said Zappe is only good for any reason. I said he was impressive on Sunday, but he did play easier competition and the offense was different than Mac Jones. Both are facts.

Not sure where Kyed is getting his data from but the below shows 22.9% PA plays per attempt. That doesn't seem incredibly high to me. Regardless, you realize this kid played 99% out of shotgun in college correct? Him playing PA from UC is not something he was used to doing, so he's incredibly successfully "in the NFL!!!"


Let's look at other numbers:
Pressure: Having 2.5 sec in the pocket doesn't follow the narrative that he had all the time in the world to throw, does it. Mac's time is 2.4 sec.



Accuracy: 10.6% bad throws, and an astonishing 83.3% "on target." Mac's are 15.6% and 68.8%.



Air Yards: all of his numbers are good. Mac's numbers are better except for YAC/comp (4.4).



Just to make sense out of all of these numbers, here are the indexes for his values which compares with others. An index of 100 is average. He's above average on all the values except sacks (5) where he's slightly below average. What do these numbers mean? We know his completion % is very high (#2 in the league) and he has an index of 131, so that's a very good number. Look at all the others: 131, 127, 132, 128 & 131 on rating. He's killing it! His TD & INT indexes are also good. Mac's indexes are below Zappe's.




This kid is a good QB. Coaches need to let this kid cook to take advantage of his natural talent as a pure passer. Sure there's a limited sample size, but you have to consider that this kid went from Western Kentucky to the Patriots, was called off the bench after having limited reps as the 3rd stringer and is a baller. You can't coach or teach what this kid has, and that's confidence and natural talent.

 

[Rob0729]

PFF does do a better job of reviewing everything in context, so I do agree with this. Zappe's totals on paper are great and so are a lot of the things he does execution-wise. Again, he's been terrific.

But in terms of really comparing him against Jones, I would say they'd be better about telling us more about that. It's still sort of a tough debate and after last night, I've resigned myself to just letting it play out since none of us have any control over it.

FWIW! Bedard is backing up on some of what PFF is saying.

Some added things. He just said that Zappe passes for 15.1 yards off of play action and 5.1 yards average on all other passes. So that is a huge thing in Zappe's success vs. Jones because Jones only did play action 10% of the time and Zappe did it nearly 40%.

Also, Bedard said that Zappe was only under pressure about 22% of the time thus far while Jones was under pressure 33% of the time which also plays a factor.

 

[NovaScotiaPatsFan]

Then why wasn't Mac asked to do what he did last year, this year?

Did you watch the video?

 

[venecol]

It depends, if they're basing it off of deeper attempts, than that probably explains it. I'll do some digging on this.

He already acknowledged his 66% is for total completions.

 

[Rob0729]

Not sure where Kyed is getting his data from but the below shows 22.9% PA plays per attempt. That doesn't seem incredibly high to me. Regardless, you realize this kid played 99% out of shotgun in college correct? Him playing PA from UC is not something he was used to doing, so he's incredibly successfully "in the NFL!!!"
View attachment 46388

Let's look at other numbers:
Pressure: Having 2.5 sec in the pocket doesn't follow the narrative that he had all the time in the world to throw, does it. Mac's time is 2.4 sec.

View attachment 46389

Accuracy: 10.6% bad throws, and an astonishing 83.3% "on target." Mac's are 15.6% and 68.8%.

View attachment 46392

Air Yards: all of his numbers are good. Mac's numbers are better except for YAC/comp (4.4).

View attachment 46393

Just to make sense out of all of these numbers, here are the indexes for his values which compares with others. An index of 100 is average. He's above average on all the values except sacks (5) where he's slightly below average. What do these numbers mean? We know his completion % is very high (#2 in the league) and he has an index of 131, so that's a very good number. Look at all the others: 131, 127, 132, 128 & 131 on rating. He's killing it! His TD & INT indexes are also good. Mac's indexes are below Zappe's.

View attachment 46395
View attachment 46396

This kid is a good QB. Coaches need to let this kid cook to take advantage of his natural talent as a pure passer. Sure there's a limited sample size, but you have to consider that this kid went from Western Kentucky to the Patriots, was called off the bench after having limited reps as the 3rd stringer and is a baller. You can't coach or teach what this kid has, and that's confidence and natural talent.

Whether or not he is experienced in play action, Zappe is doing it far more than Jones did it. And according to Bedard, that is primary reason Zappe has been effective because is passes average about 10 yards per attempt in play action than any other formation.

I just posted that according to Bedard, Jones has been pressured over 33% of the time while Zappe has been pressured 22%. I will take his analysis as at least close.

 

[Rob0729]

FWIW, Bedard grades Zappe' last two performance (he takes into effect how the defense plays against the QB) as middle of the pack compared to Mac Jones' games. Yes, Bedard is clearly not the be all and end all of football analysis, but he does study the all 22 and everything that goes along with it.

 

[Tunescribe]

Whether or not he is experienced in play action, Zappe is doing it far more than Jones did it. And according to Bedard, that is primary reason Zappe has been effective because is passes average about 10 yards per attempt in play action than any other formation.

I just posted that according to Bedard, Jones has been pressured over 33% of the time while Zappe has been pressured 22%. I will take his analysis as at least close.

Another interesting point by Bedard, among several others: when Zappe doesn't have time and room to fully set his feet and step into his throws, he lacks arm strength.

 

[venecol]

FWIW! Bedard is backing up on some of what PFF is saying.

Some added things. He just said that Zappe passes for 15.1 yards off of play action and 5.1 yards average on all other passes. So that is a huge thing in Zappe's success vs. Jones because Jones only did play action 10% of the time and Zappe did it nearly 40%.

Also, Bedard said that Zappe was only under pressure about 22% of the time thus far while Jones was under pressure 33% of the time which also plays a factor.

Again, not sure where Bedard is getting his numbers from. The tables I posted above show:

Play Action per attempt:
Zappe: 23% with 17.9 yds per PA attempt; all other non-PA 5.7 yds per attempt
Mac: 8% with 13.6 yds per PA attempt; all other non-PA 7.6 yds per attempt

So, Zappe is better at PA than Mac and Mac is better at non-PA than Zappe. Again, not Zappe's fault what plays are called. Blame it on Patricia (which we all got crucified & called trolls for questioning his lack of PA calls with Mac).

Pressure %: (hurries + hits + sacks) / drop backs
Zappe: 13.2%
Mac: 12.6%

Bedard's numbers seem exaggerated on the pressures.

 

[venecol]

Whether or not he is experienced in play action, Zappe is doing it far more than Jones did it. And according to Bedard, that is primary reason Zappe has been effective because is passes average about 10 yards per attempt in play action than any other formation.

I just posted that according to Bedard, Jones has been pressured over 33% of the time while Zappe has been pressured 22%. I will take his analysis as at least close.

He's wrong. I replied to your post.

 

[Ian]

Again, not sure where Bedard is getting his numbers from. The tables I posted above show:

Play Action per attempt:
Zappe: 23% with 17.9 yds per PA attempt; all other non-PA 5.7 yds per attempt
Mac: 8% with 13.6 yds per PA attempt; all other non-PA 7.6 yds per attempt

So, Zappe is better at PA than Mac and Mac is better at non-PA than Zappe. Again, not Zappe's fault what plays are called. Blame it on Patricia (which we all got crucified & called trolls for questioning his lack of PA calls with Mac).

Pressure %: (hurries + hits + sacks) / drop backs
Zappe: 13.2%
Mac: 12.6%

Bedard's numbers seem exaggerated on the pressures.

He's getting his numbers off the film. He manually logs the plays visually, which is different from how ProFootballReference does it.

 

[Ian]

He's wrong. I replied to your post.

And he's not wrong. Again, his insight comes from watching the plays visually, which is also how PFF does it.

 

[venecol]

FWIW, Bedard grades Zappe' last two performance (he takes into effect how the defense plays against the QB) as middle of the pack compared to Mac Jones' games. Yes, Bedard is clearly not the be all and end all of football analysis, but he does study the all 22 and everything that goes along with it.

It's really funny how Bedard all of a sudden gets high praise when he was getting raked over the coals for criticizing Patricia, the offense & Mac when Mac was playing. So which is it? Are Bedard's opinions now irrefutable & reliable or is he the media whore looking for clicks as was said all season.

 

[venecol]

He's getting his numbers off the film. He manually logs the plays visually, which is different from how ProFootballReference does it.

PFR is a well known and used source by many in the industry. I never see anyone using Bedard stats for anything. Bedard sees what he sees. That's fine.

 

[Ian]

It's really funny how Bedard all of a sudden gets high praise when he was getting raked over the coals for criticizing Patricia, the offense & Mac when Mac was playing. So which is it? Are Bedard's opinions now irrefutable & reliable or is he the media whore looking for clicks as was said all season.

Because Bedard's written analysis has always been better than his on-air persona. He's been Jekyll and Hyde in that regard, which has always been a knock against him with people. And again, he does things a little like PFF does, which is why the numbers vary and it's also why it's hard to compare because it's based on a visual interpretation when most of the stats sites - again, mine too, since I build it off the plays and how they're tracked by the league itself - are different.

 

[venecol]

Because Bedard's written analysis has always been better than his on-air persona. He's been Jekyll and Hyde in that regard, which has always been a knock against him with people. And again, he does things a little like PFF does, which is why the numbers vary and it's also why it's hard to compare because it's based on a visual interpretation when most of the stats sites - again, mine too, since I build it off the plays and how they're tracked by the league itself - are different.

Are you saying that Bedard stats are more accurate and reliable than the sites that are often used as references by pretty much everyone?

 

[Ian]

PFR is a well known and used source by many in the industry. I never see anyone using Bedard stats for anything. Bedard sees what he sees. That's fine.

They definitely are, I'm not saying that. But they track play-by-play as well in a similar method to how I started doing it, and I actually reach out to them occasionally if I spot something the league's changed from a past game (which happens) and they update their totals.

But on the advanced stuff, I don't know how they do that or the context. Not saying it's wrong, but PFF and Greg's stuff is more transparent given how anyone who has used them or read Greg's stuff at least understand how they come to some of their conclusions.

 

[Ian]

Are you saying that Bedard stats are more accurate and reliable than the sites that are often used as references by pretty much everyone?

Again, the numbers are different. That's why PFF's totals don't match ESPN or NFL.com - they're interpreted differently. The rest, mine included, are just basic hard numbers. I match ours to the league's splits for the sake of trying to be as accurate as I can.

 

[Wozzy]

Another interesting point by Bedard, among several others: when Zappe doesn't have time and room to fully set his feet and step into his throws, he lacks arm strength.

The Patriots will never find a QB with arm strength, not for another thousand years… that much is evident.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Coaching staff says "nah it's the same playbook."

 

[Tunescribe]

It's really funny how Bedard all of a sudden gets high praise when he was getting raked over the coals for criticizing Patricia, the offense & Mac when Mac was playing. So which is it? Are Bedard's opinions now irrefutable & reliable or is he the media whore looking for clicks as was said all season.

Exactly WHO are you accusing of previously raking Bedard over the coals? Bedard always has been one of the better local analysts out there, precisely because he (A) understands the pro game's complexities and (B) familiarizes himself with personnel. Reaching for reasons to shoot the messenger when it doesn't fit your narrative is pretty weak.