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BGC 2021 QB/PTP Thread


So you didn't watch him until a few minutes ago and are basing this off what "someone" said on a TV show? You can't expect to be taken seriously saying stuff like this. It's like a few years ago when you said there were only 4 WR in the draft that could run option routes.

Honestly man you provide no insight and write 2 sentences on a prospect that either makes no sense or isn't true.

With all due respect these kids, young people are doing things most of us couldn't even imagine accomplishing. There's nothing wrong with critique or criticism but do & show the work. What you just said about Fields is absolute nonsense.

don’t take my word or mcshay’s word. Just watch the tape. I got my stats from what I saw on tape weeks ago. Today mcshay confirmed it.
 
This could create an interesting situation for us.

trask is the best in this class hands down at reading defenses pre and post snap. He usually knows where to go with his passes because of that.

if bb thinks he has adequate arm strength, and all 5 qb’s are off the board by 8, does trask become a viable option for bb at 46?

Trask has less red flags than mond, mills or Newman. His smarts would work well in our offense, especially if the running game is cranking,
 
So you didn't watch him until a few minutes ago and are basing this off what "someone" said on a TV show? You can't expect to be taken seriously saying stuff like this. It's like a few years ago when you said there were only 4 WR in the draft that could run option routes.

Honestly man you provide no insight and write 2 sentences on a prospect that either makes no sense or isn't true.

With all due respect these kids, young people are doing things most of us couldn't even imagine accomplishing. There's nothing wrong with critique or criticism but do & show the work. What you just said about Fields is absolute nonsense.
That isn't what he seemed to say to me. He said until a few minutes ago, he only had HIS analysis of game tape, but a few minutes ago he saw a mock draft show in which one of the participants agreed with his analysis. He didn't say he hadn't watched him until a few minutes ago.
 
That isn't what he seemed to say to me. He said until a few minutes ago, he only had HIS analysis of game tape, but a few minutes ago he saw a mock draft show in which one of the participants agreed with his analysis. He didn't say he hadn't watched him until a few minutes ago.
Fair enough ...
"until a few minutes ago, I just had my review of his tape"
Not exactly clear cut either way let's be honest but fair enough.

Anyone that knows me on here and irl knows I don't care about broken English or anything like that. I interact with a few people from different parts of the world on here, in work.

That really doesn't make what he said any better or true. The poster never provides any insight or explanation. It's nonsense from what he saw on a mock draft show. He's close to dropkick territory.
 
Generalizing a bit here, but I thought of a decent comparison for Justin Fields: Donovan McNabb.
 
Did we have anyone at Kellen Mond’s pro day?
 
Jones did run a lot of easy plays. Sure. He also ran plays with full field reads, where he's getting to #3 and #4 at times. He made a lot of throws into tight coverage that you have to make in the NFL, even though he really didn't have to at Alabama. The brain is there, the arm talent is there, the body of work is there. No, this isn't a real argument, and I hope you realize how silly that would be. We can both make bold claims and say "I saw on this one play", so I will leave it at this. This is my evaluation of Mac Jones: elite quarterback.

Fields did have some pro reads in his system, but you have to understand how he played it differently compared to Mac. He would sit on the #1 and wait for him to get open. The OC would split up the field and give him simple 1-2 reads. He'd miss stuff and throw a dump off. Also, people like to talk about Alabama's talent differential, but watch Ohio State's receivers against a lot of OSU's opponents. The differential is the same if not greater (no SEC corners, for starters). Fields would throw into double coverage and get away with it. He does have highlights, including some great throws, but his lowlights scare me way too much to think he translates well to the NFL.

I don't have a problem with Franks' mechanics at all. His ball placement? He was one of the most accurate deep passers in the NCAA. Now, like I said, he's a bit of a project, I agree. I'd put him at the bottom of my tier 2 if it was who would win you the game on Sunday. However, I like his potential so much, and we're already into tier 2, which means rounds 2-4 to me. I'm okay taking a chance on a guy in those rounds.

I'm fully with you on Jones. Not sure if it came across differently, but I wasn't knocking him -- simply pointing out that he had the highest percentage of short throws with designed YAC of anyone other than Lawrence. Jones at 15 or via a slight trade up would make me very happy. For what the Patriots do, he's probably my #1 target, as I've mentioned in this post back in February: Charlie Weis beating the "Patriots should draft Mac Jones" drum

I'm not pointing out a play here or there; I've watched his entire body of work, a few times over. :)

I'll grant you that Fields tends to hold on too long waiting for his read to come open, but a large part of that is play design. Almost zero plays are drawn up with an intention to read the entire field. Usually, you have a primary read for a reason; you're trying to stress a defense and force them into no-win situations. There are plenty of clips floating around the Internet of Fields going to his second read. He's not incapable of it; he was simply asked to do different things.

What gives me hope is the jump he made from 2019 to 2020. Everything got smoother, quicker, more polished. If he keeps up that trajectory, I think he'll have one of the easiest first-year transitions of any quarterback in the draft, provided that he's given a more skillset-friendly offense to play within. That's the important part. When he's able to move or is given quick-hitters, he's right on the money. Don't make him wait for developing plays too much, give him time to speed up his processing for year two, and I think he could really be something. He definitely needs development, though. No disagreement there.

Thanks for going to bat for Franks. It made me question what I had in my notes. I'd started off with Georgia, and it wasn't a good first impression. I let that bias me against him unfairly when I kept watching. Mea culpa. After re-watching a few of his better games with fresh eyes, I'm more inclined to give Franks the benefit of the doubt. I still don't see traits that elevate him far above the others on the list, but I think I can confidently move him into mid-late round consideration. I do not see a year-one starter, however. Within the pocket, his ability to feel the rush and slide away from pressure is pretty inconsistent. He regularly seemed to miss blitzers. He ducks his head when rushers come free instead of identifying his hot route. For someone who has good long speed, his short area quickness doesn't impress. He averaged less than two yards a carry this year. I don't see enough eye discipline to look off safeties. He got to run a lot of quick hitters and RPO, which still are not the predominate play calls of the NFL, and I think they masked some of his processing deficiencies.

I appreciate your viewpoint. You've definitely shifted my evaluation, although at the end of it all, I still think Fields is a more polished version of what Franks can develop into. ;)
 
I'm realizing that the availability and popularity of certain game tapes can really color the popular perception of a player, particularly QBs because the position can be so inherently up and down.

For instance, if you watch Mac Jones early in the 2020 season, he looks a little bit less than what he is by the end of the season. The reads aren't as great. Maybe even the arm isn't as much there, as he was really over-shortening his release for a time.

Similarly, Justin Fields has at least one or two games where he looks really really impressive. I remember in 2019, the game against Michigan was what sealed his high status in my mind. But come 2020/2021, when I look at his tape, I see all these weaknesses and become very critical. In 2020, if you watch the Northwestern game, you might think he's barely a mid-round prospect.

Anyway, high level concept aside, I wanted to mention that I just saw another side of Trey Lance. I had formed my opinion on him from whichever games were pre-edited for viewing on Youtube. I just saw someone breaking down his Southern Illinois game in 2019 though, so I went and found the full game because the edited footage did not exist. He actually looks different in this game, and it raised my opinion of him. I'll share that video below.

Anyway, I wanted to add this idea for consideration during discourse. Two people might have two different ideas of a player, but they might also not be contradictory if they saw two different games. Also, make sure you're not only judging a prospect by only their best or worst game.

 
Jacksonville takes Lawrence and the Jets take Wilson, some analysts are linking Jones to San Fran.

does Atlanta get nervous and take the inexperienced lance or one read Dwayne Haskins part 2 fields?

how can they pass on Pitt’s for either of them?
 
Dan Orlovsky said on the Pat McAfee show that no one went to Justin Fields birthday party. Also said he's last one in first one out, terrible work ethic.

Draft day the movie 2.0? Or perhaps no one went because it was a lockdown.
 


eveybody has the right to watch fields tape and evaluate him as they see fit,

there will never be a universal grading system for prospects, no one will ever take the “art” out of drafting,

when I see fields and Jones, I see one read qb’s. Something they have probably been doing their whole qb lives. It has proven previously to be a hard habit to break,

And it is why mills and trask are so intriguing to me, they know how to read a defense pre and post snap.
 

I've given up with certain posters. Shame bc he's been here for almost 20 years. I'm not sure how he lasted this long. Last year there were only 4 WR that could run option routes lol. Last week Wilson won't succeed unless he's in a wide zone scheme lol. I mean c'mon.

Not everyone is an expert or guru. This is all for fun. That said be original, genuine and honest. More than obvious that poster is reading things elsewhere and posting the nonsense here. Not trying to be mean but its not fair to process or prospects. And disingenuous to the forum, other posters. There's plenty of stuff to criticize prospects, do it the right way.
 
1. Trevor Lawrence - Lawrence isn't an option. Check.

2. Trey Lance - I've come around big time on Lance. Just as a pure passer, I really like his talent. He looks great in the rhythm passing game. He can absolutely nail the difficult throws with ease. His athleticism is just a bonus. He poses some risk, given the amount of project that we have to do from limited tape, but I am a believer.

3. Mac Jones - Jones is a stud. He is at the top of the class in several categories, such as reading defenses and anticipation, which is ya know, kinda important. I project him to have more arm strength as he continues to develop his body and refine his technique. Yes, he is pro ready, but he's also a bit of a projection because I really see so much talent that he can grow into.

4. Kellen Mond - Mond is a big time sleeper, but he's this weird combination of most pro ready (super accurate, consistent, productive) but hardest to project because of his frailness and some limitations I see in his mechanics. I really want to like him, but I think he's ultimately going to need a good landing spot.

5. Zach Wilson - Biggest positives: quickest feet, quickest release, and best footwork in draft. Has a decent amount of under center and play action experience. Good but not great arm. Negatives: Zach Wilson makes bad decisions. There's a difference between playing Me Ball and being creative. If you leave the structure of the offense to make plays, that's creativity. If you leave the structure of the offense because it makes yourself look cool and gives you the opportunity to make a flashy play, that's Me Ball. Me Ball destroys offenses because you can no longer develop structure or get balls to your playmakers. Is it curable? Often times, no. Look at Johnny Manziel. He needs strong leadership to turn it around.

6. Justin Fields - Fields is very inconsistent, very slow to go through reads, and has zero feel for rhythm passing. His experience with pro style reads is limited. He's always going to rely on his athleticism, and that will probably permanently hamper his development. He may be able to put up big numbers in a system that hides his weaknesses, but this will come to the detriment of the rest of the team, and it's not someone I would build a team around.

7. Feleipe Franks - Ridiculous tools. Got beat out by Trask, but you have to hope that you can continue to develop him. Some questions about his ability to read a defense. I think football might just be too fast for him, but he's still just 23 years old, and people grow. Low risk, very high reward if you get him in the middle rounds.

8. Davis Mills - Davis Mills looks the part and acts the part, but his arm is really mediocre, and I doubt it can be improved much because of his mechanics. Maybe I am wrong.

9. Kyle Trask - All around solid player. Pop gun arm, as others here have stated. Was completely flat and out of his depth against fast defenses that forced him to make tough throws. Protect him with your scheme, and he's a good backup.

10. Jamie Newman - Jamie Newman looks the part and throws absolute seeds, but he has some mediocre tape in terms of reading defenses, and you also wonder about the past year of course. Ultimately, he has the highest potential of anyone in my tier three list, in my opinion. I just don't know where his head is at.

Just wanted to summarize a few changes, having gone back and double checked people.

Lance is going up - Saw some great tape of his. He has Lamar Jackson speed (clocked at 21.50mph in a game last year), Josh Allen arm talent (almost), played in the most pro style offense of anyone, and displays great rhythm finding throws in the structure of the offense.
Mond - I could put him almost anywhere in the top 3 if I really wanted to. He really puts on a clinic at QB. Big league throw after big league throw, and he still has really good mobility on top of that. He's broken a 70 yard run in every season of his career.
Franks is going down - Returned to sanity with him. Lots of mediocre tape. The game is too fast. Sounds like Stidham.
Swapped Wilson and Fields - I really like Wilson's mechanics, and he has some good experience under center (rarity these days). I think his issues are fixable IF, big if, he wants to fix them.
Trask going down - pop gun arm confirmed.

Values:
I removed the tiers because it was too complicated. I would consider the top 3 to be definite 1st rounders. #4 is probably a late 1st. #5 and #6 could be 1sts or 2nds. I think the way they interview will cause their draft stock to dramatically fluctuate, but from the outside, I don't feel comfortable betting much on them. There are busts at QB every year. I think it will be them. But if you could take them later, like late 1st or 2nd, then I think the risk/reward is more even. #7-10 are guys you don't want to touch until round 3, and then you just take your favorite. It's going to vary based on the offense you run and how they interview with you.
 
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Random thought... People love to say that Alabama's talent and system makes it easy on the QB, but why do we never say this about Trevor Lawrence? Is it because he's 6'6" and athletic, and we just assume all of his success is his own?

What I see in that offense is Clemson setting him up with a lot of easy throws, both because of talent and scheme. I do really like Lawrence, but I don't think he's the risk-free option that many see him as. I could easily put Lance #1 on my board, particularly given that Lance doesn't have these same downsides.
 
Just wanted to summarize a few changes, having gone back and double checked people.

Lance is going up - Saw some great tape of his. He has Lamar Jackson speed (clocked at 21.50mph in a game last year), Josh Allen arm talent (almost), played in the most pro style offense of anyone, and displays great rhythm finding throws in the structure of the offense.
Mond - I could put him almost anywhere in the top 3 if I really wanted to. He really puts on a clinic at QB. Big league throw after big league throw, and he still has really good mobility on top of that. He's broken a 70 yard run in every season of his career.
Franks is going down - Returned to sanity with him. Lots of mediocre tape. The game is too fast. Sounds like Stidham.
Swapped Wilson and Fields - I really like Wilson's mechanics, and he has some good experience under center (rarity these days). I think his issues are fixable IF, big if, he wants to fix them.
Trask going down - pop gun arm confirmed.

Values:
I removed the tiers because it was too complicated. I would consider the top 3 to be definite 1st rounders. #4 is probably a late 1st. #5 and #6 could be 1sts or 2nds. I think the way they interview will cause their draft stock to dramatically fluctuate, but from the outside, I don't feel comfortable betting much on them. There are busts at QB every year. I think it will be them. But if you could take them later, like late 1st or 2nd, then I think the risk/reward is more even. #7-10 are guys you don't want to touch until round 3, and then you just take your favorite. It's going to vary based on the offense you run and how they interview with you.

If you were Bill - and remember that the Art of the Draft is knowing when to select a player just before the next team would've done - what's the latest pick you would use on Kellen Mond?
 


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