Path cleared for Jimmy's return? [SF trades for #3 pick]

[50-yard-line]

Not if you think you can win a SB this year and your bridge QB is someone who you think can get you there because he's already proven it. Which is the situation SF is in. They also aren't tied up in longtermmoney for Jimmy so they can deal with paying him this year and moving on next year.

$25 million dollars (his cap hit is north of that, but that's this year's extra cost to keep him) for a guy you just spent this year's 1st, 3rd, next year's 1st, and 2023's 1st to replace.

A guy still in his prime and looking to get to where he should be in the NFL.
A guy with little dead money.
A guy who still has trade value.
A guy who has way more to lose than to gain in playing on his contract (as in, guaranteed money).

If he "almost" gets you there, you've just blown three years of 1st round picks on a bench warmer who has nowhere near the capital you spent to draft him.

SF has a couple of BIG contracts coming up (Bosa, for example). Why in the world would they pay that kind of $$$ to a guy they just told wasn't their answer? I see Alex Smith or Darnold or Minshew going there. Darnold, in particular (if the Jets draft Wilson) would be in a prove-it position, as he'll be a free agent in 2022 if his year 5 option isn't picked up, which it almost certainly won't be if they draft Wilson)

Smith would make a lot of sense, going back home and already proving he can be that bridge leader guy.

My honest gut feeling here is that SF made it quite clear with that trade that Garoppolo won't be there this year. No way Jimmy re-does his contract down with them, as this might be his last big payday opportunity and they just slapped him across the face. On the other hand, if he went to Chicago or New England, he would certainly redo the contract, add extra years and guaranteed money. At least, I would.

These types of situations get nasty very fast. I've been involved in them (in another field), and I can tell you that EVERYTHING SF is now saying and doing will be taken in the worst possible light by JImmy and Don Yee, and vice-versa. SF has put him in a terrible position if he truly wants to be considered a top-tier NFL QB.

If he goes out and gets hurt or gets replaced this year, as someone above alluded to, he's now Marcus Mariota II, or Trubiskying his way to Buffalo. Every year, more young hot-shot QBs roll into the NFL - I don't think a guy past 30 with a middling resume of coulda-beens ever comes back from that. His time is right now if there are teams (like New England, of course - best situation for him) who still want to take a shot with him.

 

[Ivan]

If your belief is correct then there will be no deal as Jimmy is not worth that and Lynch will pay $26m this year

I don’t think Lynch is worried about the 26 million as free agency is close to over in terms of the top players, and having a veteran QB while your future QB is a rookie is generally a good thing. He also has more than one team interested in dealing for Garrapolo, so Lynch has the upper hand right now. And while I don’t think Garrapolo is worth this years #15 pick I would give up their 2022 first rounder for him, as he already knows their offense inside out, and I see that pick as the equivalent of a 2nd rounder. It’s a little pricey but the Patriots are a QB away from serious contention and Garrapolo addresses that need, unless you would rather watch Cam Newton every week?

 

[Sicilian]

But even in all these scenarios we are leaving out how Jimmy G and his agent feel. We can't treat everything in a bubble.

The risk for Jimmy killing his value in staying is much worse than going to a team where he is guaranteed to start. If the rookie takes over in training camp or during the season his career just goes in the toilet

Also the idea that he will be happy to take a pay cut and be a "bridge guy" for a team who just said we don't trust you

A fair point. Everything is speculation right now. Things we're assuming (but don't actually know as fact) are:

- SF is planning to draft a QB (very likely of course)
- SF is going to ask JG to take a pay cut
- If he doesn't SF will trade or cut him
- The asking price for JG trade will be something palatable for BB
- BB WANTS Jimmy back
- Jimmy doesn't want to be a lame duck

All of the above could very well be true, but SF could pull a wackadoodle move and trade that pick again. If JG doesn't accept a paycut, they're still paying two QB's, one at starter money, the other at backup money, they're just reversed for one year. BB may not want JG back in reality, or may feel the highest he's willing to pay for an injury prone starter is a 3rd rounder (and SF never goes that low). And ultimately JG might view this as a chance to prove he's still a good starter in a system he's had success in, then likely hit the market next year where there will ALWAYS be tons of teams looking to upgrade their QB situation.

My problem in these threads hasn't been that anyone has put forth a theory that is implausible. Since we don't know what's really going on behind the scenes, nothing would surprise me. It's that people are trying to read into the situation and start to make assumptions about Belichick, Garropolo, and Lynch that are based more on what THEY (as fans) want that hasn't happened quickly enough for them.

 

[Ollie]

So no qb is good enough to trade for, none are good enough to sign as free agents and none are good enough to draft.
Then why do so many other teams have good QBs? I mean it’s clear we have the worst so maybe it’s time to do something different.

The draft is hit and miss even drafting a Qb with a top 5 pick is no guarantee of success. Most of the teams selecting early in the draft had quite poor years and are possibly in a period of rebuilding so the model is more long term and for them starting the rookie makes more sense. If you want to win now and have a decent team it's rare for a successful team to draft a rookie and start him that year. What we did with JG and also Brady was a decent plan mentoring a drafted back up behind an established starter.

Supposedly we weren't overwhelmed with the free agents this year although i wasn't against perhaps Stafford and Wentz. but we werent the only ones in the market.

 

[venecol]

i dont know if theres been a recent situation where a team is paying a guy $25million who is clearly not part of their future. and having a #3 high pick sit no matter how good or ready they look

Not the same $$, but similar scenario. Alex Smith had 2 years left in his contract when they drafted Mahomes (#10). Mahomes rode the bench while Smith played in 2017 and was traded to WFT his final year for Fuller + 3rd rounder. Smith made $40M in 2018.

Again, not the same but similar situations, and we know KC gave two 1st + 3rd to get Mahomes.

This season, Joe Burrow was the only rookie QB to start WK-1, looked good, played 10 games, then was lost due to injury (ACL / MCL / PCL). Herbert was supposed to be a backup and only started after Taylor's injury.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

Another point is that I don't think SF's motivation for moving on is about JG's injuries. They just don't expect to be picking at #12 again in a year with multiple outstanding QB's in the draft, and this was a 1-time opportunity to restart the clock, improve their cap situation with a rookie QB contract etc. And by getting Fields or Wilson, Shanahan gets a more mobile and talented QB.

In other words, Garappolo isn't damaged goods, it's just the unique circumstances driving this. He's perfect for us in our situation.

 

[venecol]

If you believe that your Bridge QB is good enough to get you to a super bowl and win it this year then why is he your bridge QB and you are drafting a guy at #3?

the two don't make sense.

Because he's in the penultimate year of his current contract and you've already decided not to extend him because of his injury history. Fact is he's good enough to get you to SB (proven), he's sunk cost, and by playoffs maybe rookie is ready to light it up.

 

[upstater1]

So no qb is good enough to trade for, none are good enough to sign as free agents and none are good enough to draft.
Then why do so many other teams have good QBs? I mean it’s clear we have the worst so maybe it’s time to do something different.

You have to evaluate QBs.

If you think a guy doesn't have it, it's a waste of resources to bring him on because Patriots fans are clamoring for a QB.

Who is it that you believe is so good?

Other teams have good QBs because they pick them up after spending assets to get them. No one is going to be available at #15. That's obvious. And New England isn't giving up 3 first rounders for the worst of the 5.

 

[lancerman]

He's 29 years old. The guy in tampa is 43 and Rodgers is 39.

If he stays healthy he could be a teams long-term option possibly.

The guy in Tampa had one major injury ever in his career that caused him to miss time. Jimmy has had injuries that caused him to miss time in all but two years where he was required to start. Rodgers has his 1st round replacement on the team right now.

Also you are talking about the two best QB's of the last decade vs Jimmy who in addition to being injury prone is also closer to above average than elite.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

But then the question becomes: If we save this money this year, who is left to really spend it on? Why not keep a guy you know can help you win (even if you don't think he's the long term solution) since you can afford his salary? It's not like they need to move money to get under the cap. Sure, you could bring in an Alex Smith (who, by the way, had a worse passer rating than Newton last year, believe it or not), but you've already got a bridge QB and you're not getting a ton of impact guys with any money you save by moving Jimmy.

Now, they might want the picks they get from him, or they're really intent on throwing the kid into the fire right away, but they're not going to move him unless they feel they're getting fair value, because they have no need to.

Well, you can do the following:
- carry the space forward to 2022 like the Patriots did last year to make a huge splash then.
- Re-sign your current players to extensions (as someone previously stated, they have a lot of FA next year) and intentionally set up the contracts to have large cap hits in 2021 and lower cap hits in 2022+ so they have more cap space to spend in the future (the opposite of the strategy usually taken, but in fact exactly what the 49ers did before when they originally signed Jimmy G to his extension)

The worst thing a team can do with $24m is throw it to a guy sitting on the bench. If they really plan to start him in 2021, that’s different. But I’m skeptical that is truly the smart play for them.

 

[lancerman]

You have to evaluate QBs.

If you think a guy doesn't have it, it's a waste of resources to bring him on because Patriots fans are clamoring for a QB.

Who is it that you believe is so good?

Other teams have good QBs because they pick them up after spending assets to get them. No one is going to be available at #15. That's obvious. And New England isn't giving up 3 first rounders for the worst of the 5.

This is the problem. Just because we lack a solid franchise QB doesn't mean this year there are great options and it's worth pissing resources away. The fact is that once we got the 15th overall we had an issue in the draft. That just got worse now that we know for a fact that we at best would have to trade multiple firsts to get the 4th QB taken. Meanwhile Jimmy is going to cost something and he is a massive injury liability and his own team wants to move on.

Desperation over Cam and Stidham is not a good reason to lose resources over low potential guys just to do something. It's a fallacy that action out of desperation is some sound strategy.

 

[Sicilian]

You have to evaluate QBs.

If you think a guy doesn't have it, it's a waste of resources to bring him on because Patriots fans are clamoring for a QB.

Who is it that you believe is so good?

Other teams have good QBs because they pick them up after spending assets to get them. No one is going to be available at #15. That's obvious. And New England isn't giving up 3 first rounders for the worst of the 5.

The idea that we should trade up just to get whoever is left at QB (regardless of how the Patriots actually evaluate them), is the same mentality that's led the Jets to trade up for Darnold and Sanchez. It's a desperate mentality that then cripples your ability to add talent (at QB or otherwise) for the next few years, while you still don't have The Guy. We look at the ones that worked, like the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes, but we can't ignore the ones that didn't either.

 

[mgteich]

Cam isn’t getting cut, for depth I doubt Stidham is either. We aren’t carrying 4 QBs on the roster. It’s either Jimmy G or a QB in the draft, not both.

Why isn't right to have Jimmy for a year (if the draftee is ready to start 2022) or for 2 or 3 years if the draftee isn't ready?

You truly favor a draftee, Cam and Stidham? This makes no sense to me, unless you have faith in Cam as the 1-3 year bridge quarterback.

 

[Sicilian]

Well, you can do the following:
- carry the space forward to 2022 like the Patriots did last year to make a huge splash then.
- Re-sign your current players to extensions (as someone previously stated, they have a lot of FA next year) and intentionally set up the contravts to have large cap hits in 2021 and lower cap hits in 2022+ so they have more cap space to spend in the future (the opposite of the strategy usually taken, but in fact exactly what the 49ers did before when they originally signed Jimmy G to his extension)

The worst thing a team can to with $24m is throw it to a guy sitting on the bench. If they really plan to start him in 2021, that’s different. But I’m skeptical that is truly the smart play for them.

Definitely good points, and a move I had forgot was an option was carrying the money forward. I will contend though that, depending on who they're taking, they may not think JG is sitting on the bench in 2021. It's possible the kid comes in like gang busters and takes the reins from a reeling Garropolo in training camp, but Lynch and Shanahan are smart football guys. They're going to want some reassurances that they have a guy they know and trust there so the rookie can develop on his own pace. Maybe they have another vet sign/trade lined up to replace JG, but at the moment he's their best option to run the team until Lance or whoever they draft is ready. And there's no guarantee that he's ready in 2021.

 

[lancerman]

The idea that we should trade up just to get whoever is left at QB (regardless of how the Patriots actually evaluate them), is the same mentality that's led the Jets to trade up for Darnold and Sanchez. It's a desperate mentality that then cripples your ability to add talent (at QB or otherwise) for the next few years, while you still don't have The Guy. We look at the ones that worked, like the Chiefs trading up for Mahomes, but we can't ignore the ones that didn't either.

Yup. At least SF can say "okay we know Lawrence is off the board, we have two guys we are really sold on and if the Jets take one we are all in on this other dude anyways". With us we are trading alot going in having no idea what the Jets and Niner's will take from us.

 

[DarrylS]

Jimmy G has a no trade clause so he essentially controls his destiny, if the Pats were work out a trade (no higher than a 2nd this year and possibly a 4th next) he would have to rework his contract for the Pats..

No way are the Pats going to absorb that cap hit of 26 Million this year and 27 Million next year...

Even the 2nd this year and possibly the 4th next is a lot of draft capital for a guy who has been injured as much as he has..

 

[mgteich]

A fair point. Everything is speculation right now. Things we're assuming (but don't actually know as fact) are:

- SF is planning to draft a QB (very likely of course)
- SF is going to ask JG to take a pay cut
- If he doesn't SF will trade or cut him
- The asking price for JG trade will be something palatable for BB
- BB WANTS Jimmy back
- Jimmy doesn't want to be a lame duck

All of the above could very well be true, but SF could pull a wackadoodle move and trade that pick again. If JG doesn't accept a paycut, they're still paying two QB's, one at starter money, the other at backup money, they're just reversed for one year. BB may not want JG back in reality, or may feel the highest he's willing to pay for an injury prone starter is a 3rd rounder (and SF never goes that low). And ultimately JG might view this as a chance to prove he's still a good starter in a system he's had success in, then likely hit the market next year where there will ALWAYS be tons of teams looking to upgrade their QB situation.

My problem in these threads hasn't been that anyone has put forth a theory that is implausible. Since we don't know what's really going on behind the scenes, nothing would surprise me. It's that people are trying to read into the situation and start to make assumptions about Belichick, Garropolo, and Lynch that are based more on what THEY (as fans) want that hasn't happened quickly enough for them.

I don't see why Jimmy would take a pay cut.
I don't see why Jimmy would agree to a trade, when the team who he goes to could just wait for him to be cut.

 

[Mack Herron]

I posted something like this earlier in the thread. Suppose they think he’s worth 25m a year as QB (just for sake of argument). They could wipe out his current deal and replace with a 5 year, 125m contract with a 20m signing bonus. 1m salary in 2021, 26m salary in 2022-2025. Gets a 5m cap charge in 2021, 30m cap charge from 2022-2025. If the Pats think the cap is going up with the new tv deal, they might think 30m for a QB is more feasible than they did 3 years ago.

See above. What helps here is that there is no pre-existing bonus with Jimmy G as that stays with the 49ers. In Brady’s case, TB can’t do anything about last year’s signing bonus proration, so his cap charge could only go down so much.

Cool. Can it be structured in a way that allows the Pats to get out early in case he’s what SF thinks he is? How much guaranteed will JG want?

 

[mgteich]

Jimmy G has a no trade clause so he essentially controls his destiny, if the Pats were work out a trade (no higher than a 2nd this year and possibly a 4th next) he would have to rework his contract for the Pats..

No way are the Pats going to absorb that cap hit of 26 Million this year and 27 Million next year...

Even the 2nd this year and possibly the 4th next is a lot of draft capital for a guy who has been injured as much as he has..

???
Presume Jimmy's contract is the same as now, except that all but $1M of salary is moved to bonus. We have a QB for one year of $26M as you said.
Is it worth signing a QB for one year that will greatly increase the likelihood of the playoffs? I thinks so.

As for 2022, we will have a decision with regard to keeping Jimmy as a $27M quarterback for one year, to trade him, or to cut him.. This decision would depend on whether our 2021 draftee is ready to start.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

Jimmy G has a no trade clause so he essentially controls his destiny, if the Pats were work out a trade (no higher than a 2nd this year and possibly a 4th next) he would have to rework his contract for the Pats..

No way are the Pats going to absorb that cap hit of 26 Million this year and 27 Million next year...

Even the 2nd this year and possibly the 4th next is a lot of draft capital for a guy who has been injured as much as he has..

I agree, that's sounds reasonable, we do know he can get to the Super Bowl and we need someone decent to throw to the new guys. I can't believe Bill think Cams the answer or maybe he has something else up his sleeve. Going to be an interesting two months for sure.