For comparison, in his three seasons with the Pats Hogan has caught 38, 34, and 35 catches in the regular season, and contributed 17, 9, and 8 post-season catches. How is a rookie catching 25 to 35 going to be an upgrade? At 25 catches that would be about 28% fewer receptions, quite a drop off. At 35 it would be an even swap,not an upgrade. You can argue the upside of future potential, but that ignores the downside risk of a flop, and the existing trust between Brady and Hogan.
I’d say Hogan, like Amendola, deserves a shot in camp, along with some youngsters and other free agents. See what they show, let the best performers rise to the top and skim the cream. Hogan and ‘Dola are both FAs so they very well might not be here even if the team wants them here, if some other team is willing to open the checkbook to bring in vets with Super Bowl winning experience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them here, wouldn’t be surprised to see them elsewhere. Maybe a bit more expect the latter, because of Bill’s “better a year early” philosophy.