Analytics: 4th Down

[SlowGettingUp]

This article from the NY Times shows why the Eagles are the most aggressive of all teams on going for it on 4th down. Expect to see a repeat in the upcoming game.

Also mention of BB playing it safe on occasion this season when the analytics said he should go for it - in particular, four times against Jacksonville:

How the Eagles Followed the Numbers to the Super Bowl
How the Eagles Followed the Numbers to the Super Bowl

 

[BobDigital]

Interesting story. While I am a big believe in knowing the percentages you can't just play them blindly. I agree with pretty much all of BB's 4th down decisions in that Jags game.

 

[mosi]

This will be interesting. The main reason Pederson goes for it is because he has a stout defense and a solid offense. The question is will he do that against the Pats and Brady? I think yes. He will go down swinging and go for it in potentially difficult places. I could easily see the Pats getting the ball at the 45 on downs. They have to score and punish the Eagles at that point.

 

[fgssand]

This will be interesting. The main reason Pederson goes for it is because he has a stout defense and a solid offense. The question is will he do that against the Pats and Brady? I think yes. He will go down swinging and go for it in potentially difficult places. I could easily see the Pats getting the ball at the 45 on downs. They have to score and punish the Eagles at that point.

He plays like that and he will hasten his loss. They very well may be out of it with about 10 min to go in the 3rd quarter.

 

[mosi]

He plays like that and he will hasten his loss. They very well may be out of it with about 10 min to go in the 3rd quarter.

I hope that is the case!

 

[Observer]

How often they go for it is going to depend on how well our offense does against their defense. If we set the tone early by moving the ball steadily, they will have to be careful. If we start going 3 and out, they will be emboldened.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Neither approach is wrong considering the situation.

The Patriots are the favourite, so BB is minimizing variance. The Eagles are underdogs, they should be aggressive and increase variance.

Not everyone can do the same things the same ways. Both coaches are doing the right thing for their team, even if it's different from each other.