Jags @ Patriots
The key for me is Brady finally for the first time in nearly 2 months looks healthy (and no I'm not worried about his hand). The Pats offense is facing the most talented D in the league but not the best. It is young and at times undisciplined and can be had in certain situations. A has been shown in great articles in their base against 11 personnel you may as well toss up miracle balls and hope.
Against multi RB and TE sets they look rather mortal. The are often over aggressive and a RB can get behind the rush or a slot WR find a soft spot if they bite on play action (something they often do). They are light often and can be run on vs if you get the right players out there. Their CBs are really good and should be mostly ignored particularly on vertical routes unless you have Antonio Brown (we don't).
They can get good pressure with their front 4 but it isn't the monster pass rush you'd think it be going by the stats. It is just very good.
On offense the Jags depend on light zone to complete passes and the run game to establish itself so they can play action pass. They often wait for mistakes or very short fields to capitalize on. Bortles is usually safe with the football though which is good for them. Their run game has been so-so and Fournette didn't look right coming back in. The Patriots since Harrison/Van Noy came back have shut down the run and will continue to do so. They will force Bortles to beat them and I think Brady will know to play safe vs this D and the right plays to get into.
The Jags will have a few key penalties as well of personal fouls to give the Patriot easy yards. The Penalties will help the Patriots drive.
Prediction: Patriots 27 Jaguars 13 and I don't think it is that close after the first half. The Pats could score more but they play safe in the 4th.
Stats - Patriots
Brady 30/40 295 yards 2 TDs 1 Int (a dumb pass to Cooks sigh....)
Lewis 15 carries 70 yards 1 TD
Other RBs 10 carries 40 yards
Gronk 6 catches for 70 yards 1 TD
Lewis 5 catches 45 yards
Burkhead 5 catches 45 yards 1 TD
Amendola 6 catches 50 yards
Hogan 4 catches 40 yards
Cooks 2 catches 25 yards
Allen 2 catches 20 yards
White 0 catches
1 defensive turnover
Stats - Jags
Bortles 20/35 190 yards 1 TD 1 int (forced to play catch up late. Until the 4th he is barely over 100 yards and 20 attempts)
Fournette 15 rushes 40 yards
Yeldon 10 rushes 30 yards
Cole 5 catches 60 yards
Lee 4 catches 40 yards
Westbrook 4 catches 40 yards
Yeldon 3 catches 20 yards
The rest get spread out
1 defensive turnover
