Crazy First Overall Pick Notion

[manxman2601]

BB is holding out, apparently, for the first overall pick from Cleveland in any Jimmy G trade. Let's just say that Cleveland are that desperate for Jimmy G and give up that pick.

Obviously, the most likely possibility is that, just like almost everyone else, the Pats have a very high grade on Myles Garrett and BB feels that is woth trading JG for. But what if....?

I am of the firm belief that BB would love Jamal Adams because of his flexible safety skillset and, more inportantly, his leadership abilities. Every report about Adams I've seen stresses this part of his character. So just maybe, BB might trade out of the 1st overall ( I think for 2018 and beyond picks) and takes Adams instead of Garrett.

How much would that disappoint you?

 

[mihap]

I dont think Browns are that desperate, but i would keep Jimmy for 2 years. Jimmy is legit.
But as potential first rounder i d rather have Garrett.

 

[manxman2601]

I dont think Browns are that desperate, but i would keep Jimmy for 2 years. Jimmy is legit.
But as potential first rounder i d rather have Garrett.

Over Adams and multiple picks in later years? I'm not saying I disagree but it's not a simple case of Garrett v Adams.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

It's the valuation I would have a problem with, not the player.

I forget who it was, but there was a great breakdown on how if you draft a strong safety in the top 5, you are paying top of the market value from day 1. It totally diminishes the point of drafting, since you aren't really getting any financial value, just player value.

It's why LT, QB and DE are always your most likely picks. The chance to get a 5 year starter with cheap years throughout is a lot to pass on. Garrett would be getting a contract in line with about a 25-30th rusher in the league. Even if you have Adams as he better player, the value doesn't compute.

Interesting conversation though. I think they both check every box for their position. Garretts position is just so much more expensive to fill.

 

[manxman2601]

It's the valuation I would have a problem with, not the player.

I forget who it was, but there was a great breakdown on how if you draft a strong safety in the top 5, you are paying top of the market value from day 1. It totally diminishes the point of drafting, since you aren't really getting any financial value, just player value.

It's why LT, QB and DE are always your most likely picks. The chance to get a 5 year starter with cheap years throughout is a lot to pass on. Garrett would be getting a contract in line with about a 25-30th rusher in the league. Even if you have Adams as he better player, the value doesn't compute.

Interesting conversation though. I think they both check every box for their position. Garretts position is just so much more expensive to fill.

It was Justis Mosqueda and that's a very good point that I had forgotten. That would put a lot of money in the secondary. One of my reasons for considering it is that along with Adams you also get the ammunition to be in a position to move around to draft Solder's replacement if necessary.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

It was Justis Mosqueda and that's a very good point that I had forgotten. That would put a lot of money in the secondary. One of my reasons for considering it is that along with Adams you also get the ammunition to be in a position to move around to draft Solder's replacement if necessary.

I am just not sure how far you can trade down and still get him. Those two are my safest bets, and Adams could go as early as 2.

If you can get him at 7-9 range, I would be all in.

 

[manxman2601]

I am just not sure how far you can trade down and still get him. Those two are my safest bets, and Adams could go as early as 2.

If you can get him at 7-9 range, I would be all in.

I'm curious to see what SF do at two. Thomas and Allen don't really fit because of Armstead and Buckner. I don't think they draft Trubisky because I think they're holding out for Cousins next year. As you say, it's a little rich for the safeties and you'd probably need to Rueben Foster to that and Lattimore comes with serious injury concerns. It's a bit of a dilemma for them. Outside of the no 1, the top 5 is not that great a place to be picking.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I'm curious to see what SF do at two. Thomas and Allen don't really fit because of Armstead and Buckner. I don't think they draft Trubisky because I think they're holding out for Cousins next year. As you say, it's a little rich for the safeties and you'd probably need to Rueben Foster to that and Lattimore comes with serious injury concerns. It's a bit of a dilemma for them. Outside of the no 1, the top 5 is not that great a place to be picking.

If we don't trade JimmyG to Cleveland, I imagine they move up from 12 to 2 for their QB of choice in the draft. Cleveland has the draft resources and san Fran needs an influx of talent.

Wait and see, but that's my bet. Chicago then comes away with Thomas, jax goes fournette, tenn goes lattimore and jets get the leftover QB. Draft kindve writes itself at that point.

 

[manxman2601]

If we don't trade JimmyG to Cleveland, I imagine they move up from 12 to 2 for their QB of choice in the draft. Cleveland has the draft resources and san Fran needs an influx of talent.

Wait and see, but that's my bet. Chicago then comes away with Thomas, jax goes fournette, tenn goes lattimore and jets get the leftover QB. Draft kindve writes itself at that point.

I'm not sure Cleveland needs to go to 2, Chicago probably don't take one. And I'm not convinced the Jets will tske a QB in round one either because jobs are on the line there. They need talent to go along with a vet. Trubisky could make it to 12.

 

[I.M. Fletcher]

I'm not sure Cleveland needs to go to 2, Chicago probably don't take one. And I'm not convinced the Jets will tske a QB in round one either because jobs are on the line there. They need talent to go along with a vet. Trubisky could make it to 12.

My bet would be that if a QB isn't taken by 5, tennessees pick goes to the highest bidder. They are making a lot of belichick moves, and that seems like an obvious sell high situation.

I also can see buff, Arizona and new Orleans jumping in right before 12.

It just seems incredibly risky for Cleveland to assume their guy will be there. Especially when they have the resources to mitigate the risk.

 

[manxman2601]

My bet would be that if a QB isn't taken by 5, tennessees pick goes to the highest bidder. They are making a lot of belichick moves, and that seems like an obvious sell high situation.

I also can see buff, Arizona and new Orleans jumping in right before 12.

It just seems incredibly risky for Cleveland to assume their guy will be there. Especially when they have the resources to mitigate the risk.

I think their interest in JG suggests they're not that enamoured with this class. And if the worst comes to the worst, they have Osweiler who is probably on a par with theses draftable QBs. They could always get a Mahomes/Peterman/Webb in the 2nd and continue to be patient. Perhaps keep their Ammunition for next years class.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Garrett >Adams + picks

Value in 2-10 isn't there imho.

Garrett is still underrated. Literally just scratching the surface.

It's scary to think what he'll be, look like @ 25 when he's filled out and has his real grown man strength even tho he's a monster in the weight room

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Anybody that passes on Garrett at #1 is insane.

Garrett is a half lap better than any other player in this draft.

Expect something to happen with butler when he signs his tender.

 

[luuked]

I love Garrett but at the same time I just can't get over how BB could set himself up with a lot of flexibility by turning that first round pick into a plethora of picks over the next 2-3 years.

Either way it would be a win-win.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I love Garrett but at the same time I just can't get over how BB could set himself up with a lot of flexibility by turning that first round pick into a plethora of picks over the next 2-3 years.

Either way it would be a win-win.

If Garrett was a qb, I think bb could easily get that plethora of picks, but since he is not, I think the package would be less than you think,

 

[luuked]

If Garrett was a qb, I think bb could easily get that plethora of picks, but since he is not, I think the package would be less than you think,

I never thought it would be a RG3/Goff scenario - that would be silly. But it would still yield enough resources to have a ton of flexibility in this and in upcoming drafts.

 

[BobDigital]

Garrett would be a great get but I am just such a huge fan of trading down. I don't think you ever get value out of that #1 spot unless you get a franchise QB. I always think the better value is trading down cause other people over value the pick. As good an all pro DE or CB or LT is it alone is not as good as 3-4 really good players IMO.

If the Pats did get the #1 I would trade it for #5 and a first next year. Then trade that #5 for #11 and a 2nd. Then trade that #11 for a #15 and 3rd.

So yes you gave up that great player but you got the 15th, a high 2nd and 3rd and a 1st next year. Also you have the option to trade up or down in next years draft with that high 1st pick depending.

It is more options and better than putting all your eggs in 1 basket. That to me only makes sense for the starting QB spot.

 

[jboston19]

I'd fully expect a trade down, although the safeties have to intrigue him.

 

[skinnydog]

I dont think Browns are that desperate, but i would keep Jimmy for 2 years. Jimmy is legit.
But as potential first rounder i d rather have Garrett.

Because they cannot keep Jimmy for 2 years. I'm not so sure why that is so hard to understand. To franchise Jimmy for the 2018 season the cap hit would be about 23 million for that year. Your backup QB cannot have a 23 million cap hit. That kills the rest of the roster.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

Because they cannot keep Jimmy for 2 years. I'm not so sure why that is so hard to understand. To franchise Jimmy for the 2018 season the cap hit would be about 23 million for that year. Your backup QB cannot have a 23 million cap hit. That kills the rest of the roster.

Depending on how Brady plays in 2017, if bb thinks he needs jimmy, then he will figure out how to keep jimmy.