My Blueprint for the Defense

[mayoclinic]

I'm still thinking that you are reaching too high for Donald, even IF BB was willing to come off his norms for what what he expects his DLmen to look like. He's be an exciting player for sure, but a player you'd have to build your defense around, rather than one who fits into a "system". That being said, BB has proven that he's willing to look at more than just a players' specs in evaluating them, but not so much in the first round. In the past, BB plays it pretty safe in the first round, and takes his shots in the 2nd.

Donald is a tweener, but he also has the frame to easily bulk up to 300lbs which make him less of one. I look at it this way, when you have a player who's that talented and athletic you should just grab him, later on you'll figure out plenty of ways to use him.

Geno Atkins is the best DT in the NFL and he isn't 300+ pounds,

I think that Donald is precisely the kind of player that you want to build your defense around. He's good enough that he's not just someone you fit in to the rest of the defense, he's someone you build around.

As All22PF has noted, BB lauded Geno Atkins with some very effusive praise last year, comparing him to a "more powerful John Randle" and saying that he would have merited the #1 pick in the 2010 draft:

"He can ruin a game. There's no question the guy can ruin a game by himself. ... Every play you can't get away from him either. There aren't many plays you can run where you can say, ‘We don't really have to block the three-technique.' You have to block him and he's a factor in the running game, he's a factor in the passing game. You try to throw screens and stuff like that, he's quick and fast, he'll run those plays down." Belichick then closed with the obvious: "The guy is a really good player."

Bill Belichick compares the Bengals' Geno Atkins to one of the best defensive linemen of all time - Pats Pulpit

That's the kind of player I think Donald can be. BB thought Atkins merited being the 1st pick in the 2010 draft (ahead of Ndamukong Suh). I don't think that trading up ahead of Dallas at #16, or even Chicago at #14, would be a reach. In retrospect, would it have been worth it to trade up for Richard Seymour in 2001? That's the kind of impact I see Donald having on this defense. JMHO.

Personally I'm still hoping RHageman gets caught smoking weed or hitting a cop, because more and more I'm thinking he's going to wind up being the 2nd DT off the board. His upside is actually greater than Donald's, though his floor is equally greater.

Right now my DT ranking is probably something like this:

1. Aaron Donald
2. Dominique Easley
3. Ra'Shede Hageman
4. Timmy Jernigan
5 (tie). Stephon Tuitt
5 (tie). Brent Urban
7. Louis Nix
8. Caraun Reid
9. Zach Kerr
10. Justin Ellis

I don't think that Hageman's upside is greater than Donald, but it may be as great. He's 10x riskier, however. I'm not sure BB is willing to accept the "below the bar" play in exchange for the big plays.

While the Pats are likely to sign Talib early, I doubt they will do much more in the 30 days before the draft. Despite what we fans think, the FA game is usually won by the patient. Not much drama in that, but it usually brings in the most value.

The Pats' haven't found particularly good "value" by being patient in FA recently. Adrian Wilson, Jonathan Fanene. Steve Gregory was adequate, but probably not worth the money that they spent. They've also overspent on over the hill guys like Fred Taylor and Shaun Ellis. Not a lot of productivity from those guys. I don't particularly want to find out that Will Smith is this year's version of Adrian Wilson/Shaun Ellis. I don't particularly expect the Pats to rush out and outspend teams for Lamarr Houston/Michael Johnson, but I think they need to address a rotational DE with some schematic versatility. Corey Wootton, Everson Griffen or Mike Neal would be solid additions. I will personally be disappointed if the Pats don't make some kind of move to address this in FA.

The draft is 60 days away, BTW.

 

[mayoclinic]

My mentioning Shaun Ellis in the post above made me recall when the Pats signed him in August 2011. Ellis was 34 at the time, and the Pats offered him much more than the Jets had been willing to do (a $4M base contract, plus incentives, which he never reached).

Former Pats DC and JY Jets HC Eric Mangini commented on the Ellis signing at the time:

"He has versatility, he even played some outside linebacker for us when we wanted to get really big," Mangini said. "We'd stand him up over the tight end and he can kill guys. I don't know if that's something Bill [Belichick] will do, but he can do it and do it well. He can drop into coverage; he has that type of athleticism in the base [defense]."

When the Patriots are in a sub defense, which they were about 57 percent of the time in 2010, Ellis offers other options.

"He can play down, inside, outside, which adds another layer of versatility," Mangini said. "He's a good pass-rusher, a physical guy."

Another possibility is a more traditional 4-3 style defense, and Ellis has proven he fits there as well.

"He could play end in that system," Mangini said. "That's where he played in Rex's system [with the Jets]. Rex runs a 3-4 but with 4-3 spacing. That's what Baltimore does, what Pittsburgh does, it's 3-4 personnel but set up like a 4-3. That's another reason Shaun makes sense. He has a comfort level with that. He's a unique guy. You can do some creative stuff with him that you couldn't do with a lot of defensive ends."

Eric Mangini -- Shaun Ellis 'really good signing' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

While Ellis had nothing left in the tank and didn't work out, I still think that kind of player could be a great addition to the Pats' D. Lamarr Houston and Mike Neal offer that kind of skill set and versatility. Neal, for example, played 3-4 DE and sub rusher for the Packers, and then moved to 3-4 OLB this year at 275-285#. He's a guy who can match up with TEs or drop into zone coverage, is strong enough to set the edge from either the DE or OLB position, but who also has enough speed and "quick twitch" to rush from the outside and the versatility and power to rush from the inside.

http://www.chatsports.com/green-bay...gning' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

Someone like Houston or Neal rotating on the DL, along with a disruptive penetrator like Donald or Easley at 3-tech, would completely transform the defensive line.

 

[mayoclinic]

Bryant signs with Gus Bradley in Jacksonville:

Jaguars sign Red Bryant | ProFootballTalk

One less DL option.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

My mentioning Shaun Ellis in the post above made me recall when the Pats signed him in August 2011. Ellis was 34 at the time, and the Pats offered him much more than the Jets had been willing to do (a $4M base contract, plus incentives, which he never reached).

Former Pats DC and JY Jets HC Eric Mangini commented on the Ellis signing at the time:



Eric Mangini -- Shaun Ellis 'really good signing' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

While Ellis had nothing left in the tank and didn't work out, I still think that kind of player could be a great addition to the Pats' D. Lamarr Houston and Mike Neal offer that kind of skill set and versatility. Neal, for example, played 3-4 DE and sub rusher for the Packers, and then moved to 3-4 OLB this year at 275-285#. He's a guy who can match up with TEs or drop into zone coverage, is strong enough to set the edge from either the DE or OLB position, but who also has enough speed and "quick twitch" to rush from the outside and the versatility and power to rush from the inside.

http://www.chatsports.com/green-bay...gning' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

Someone like Houston or Neal rotating on the DL, along with a disruptive penetrator like Donald or Easley at 3-tech, would completely transform the defensive line.

I like Matt Shaughnessy as well, good sized DE who played OLB for the Cardinals after being a d-lineman for the Raiders. Plus it'd be nice to hear about a Shaughnessy doing positive things in Boston.

 

[mayoclinic]

My mentioning Shaun Ellis in the post above made me recall when the Pats signed him in August 2011. Ellis was 34 at the time, and the Pats offered him much more than the Jets had been willing to do (a $4M base contract, plus incentives, which he never reached).

Former Pats DC and JY Jets HC Eric Mangini commented on the Ellis signing at the time:

Eric Mangini -- Shaun Ellis 'really good signing' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

While Ellis had nothing left in the tank and didn't work out, I still think that kind of player could be a great addition to the Pats' D. Lamarr Houston and Mike Neal offer that kind of skill set and versatility. Neal, for example, played 3-4 DE and sub rusher for the Packers, and then moved to 3-4 OLB this year at 275-285#. He's a guy who can match up with TEs or drop into zone coverage, is strong enough to set the edge from either the DE or OLB position, but who also has enough speed and "quick twitch" to rush from the outside and the versatility and power to rush from the inside.

http://www.chatsports.com/green-bay...gning' for New England Patriots - ESPN Boston

Someone like Houston or Neal rotating on the DL, along with a disruptive penetrator like Donald or Easley at 3-tech, would completely transform the defensive line.

The reason I posted that old Mangini article was that in August 2011 the Pats signed Ellis, and they started running a 4-3 under in training camp. They moved away from a 3-4 2-gapping base to a "multiple" hybrid scheme using multiple fronts and mixed spacing. The following May BB drafted Chandler Jones, a 6'5" 265# RDE who was a clear departure from his usual type of 3-4 DE.

We know that BB tries again and again to find players who fit what he's looking for. He's done it at the TE position. In 2011 BB tried Shaun Ellis, who turned out to have nothing in the tank. In 2012 BB tried to sign Red Bryant and then signed Jonathan Fanene to play an "inside/outside" kind of role; that didn't pan out, and he moved Rob Ninkovich to DE instead. Last year he signed Armond Armstead, who could still play that role, but who wasn't able to get on the field in 2013, so Ninkovich continued to play almost exclusively at LDE.

Whether it's through FA or the draft, I suspect we'll see more of this until BB finds a fit that he likes.

 

[mayoclinic]

CNNSI.com's Doug Farrar lists Lamarr Houston and Mike Neal as 2 potential "bargains" in free agency:

1. LaMarr Houston, DL (Oakland Raiders)

It’s not known why the Raiders, in desperate need of great players all along their roster and with $65 million in cap space, haven’t sewn up one of their few legitimately high-quality homegrown prospects. But Houston said last December that he feels the Raiders are ready to move on without him, a notion that head coach Dennis Allen doesn’t share. At 6-foot-3 and 300 pounds, Houston is amazingly versatile — he can play three-tech tackle, end and even outside linebacker with consistency and effectiveness. Houston bagged a career-high six sacks last season, plus 27 quarterback hurries. And if playing in Oakland has decreased his profile enough that he’s not seen as a near-elite player around the league, someone’s going to get an enormous bargain.

3. Mike Neal, OLB/DL (Green Bay Packers)

Neal has played everywhere from defensive tackle to outside linebacker for the Packers, and everywhere from 275 to 300 pounds. There are few NFL players as effectively versatile, and Neal’s doing it at the right time — the modern league places a premium on varied defensive personnel packages, and that makes Neal a captivating free agent and relative bargain. Some will downgrade Neal because he’s not an explosive sack artist, but teams with multiple fronts should be very interested.

2014 NFL free agent bargains: LaMarr Houston, James Jones among steals | Audibles - SI.com

 

[sircole]

Whether it's through FA or the draft, I suspect we'll see more of this until BB finds a fit that he likes.

You could be right. Belichick could be tinkering with his defense to get this hybrid scheme. After all, everybody joked about why we were drafting all those TEs until Gronk and Hernandez put BB's vision on full display.

 

[manxman2601]

With the Sam Shields deal making the Talib re-signing a little less likely today (perhaps), I wonder if there's an argument for fixing the DL in free agency and attacking the secondary in the draft. Whether it be Joseph/Johnson or Melton/Allen or whichever combination people want, perhaps it might make more sense to target them and then draft the likes of Fuller/Ward/Pryor/Exum/Breeland/Dontae Johnson etc along with one or two TEs and an interior lineman.

I'm all for re-signing Talib but I start to baulk if the discussion starts heading towards 10m per year.

 

[mayoclinic]

With the Sam Shields deal making the Talib re-signing a little less likely today (perhaps), I wonder if there's an argument for fixing the DL in free agency and attacking the secondary in the draft. Whether it be Joseph/Johnson or Melton/Allen or whichever combination people want, perhaps it might make more sense to target them and then draft the likes of Fuller/Ward/Pryor/Exum/Breeland/Dontae Johnson etc along with one or two TEs and an interior lineman.

I'm all for re-signing Talib but I start to baulk if the discussion starts heading towards 10m per year.

I like the general idea, but I think it depends a bit on the market. ProFootballTalk reports that 7 teams are already showing significant interest in Michael Johnson. If this year ends up turning into a feeding frenzy after the flat caps and relative restraint of 2013, then it may get out of control fast. There will probably be some values, but finding them may not be easy.

The Shields contract surprised me. It seemed rather rich. Green Bay has a history of paying CBs (Tramon Williams' 5 year/$38M contract in 2010, and of course Charles Woodson), but I didn't expect it to be that high. It certainly won't make anything easier for the Pats to come to terms with Talib.

 

[All22PatsFan]

With Shields contract being 10m per year, it changes my whole view of FA.
I think it could be something like this:
1. Sign Bennett- best pass rusher in FA
2. Sign Nicks- 1yr deal, compliments Dobson perfectly
3. Sign Thurmond- good #2 CB
4. Sign Fletcher- 4th LB
5. Cut Wilfork- could keep if restructured
6. Cut Supouga- gone
7. Cut Kelly- Training camp cut
8. Cut A. Wilson
Draft:
1. DT
2. OG
3. TE
4. CB
6. TE
6. NT
7. TE

Notes-
- Harmon starts at SS
- Siliga starts at NT
- Bennett alternates with Ninko and CJ
- Nickel Dline- Ninko, CJ, Bennet, Siliga
- CBs- Thurmond, Dennard, Ryan, KA, 4th rounder, Green
- WR starters Dobson, Nicks and Amendola
- Dobson and Nicks compliment each other nicely because Dobson is the Deep speed WR, I would compare him to Mike Wallace but better with short routes, Nicks is much more Physical and don't struggle with press coverage and good in the redzone
- 1st round DT starts
- 2nd round Guard starts
- 3rd round TE starts with Gronk on short term IR or PUP

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think anything is changed just yet. We'll have to see how things play out.

 

[Off The Grid]

CNNSI.com's Doug Farrar lists Lamarr Houston and Mike Neal as 2 potential "bargains" in free agency:



2014 NFL free agent bargains: LaMarr Houston, James Jones among steals | Audibles - SI.com

Very impressive writing.

Not only does he apply the term "bargain" to two of the few potential Impact Free Agents, in my view, who might indeed be reasonably priced, but I especially like his focus on the term "effectively versatile." :thumb:

Versatility ain't much good if it's versatile mediocrity!!

 

[mayoclinic]

With the Sam Shields deal making the Talib re-signing a little less likely today (perhaps), I wonder if there's an argument for fixing the DL in free agency and attacking the secondary in the draft. Whether it be Joseph/Johnson or Melton/Allen or whichever combination people want, perhaps it might make more sense to target them and then draft the likes of Fuller/Ward/Pryor/Exum/Breeland/Dontae Johnson etc along with one or two TEs and an interior lineman.

I'm all for re-signing Talib but I start to baulk if the discussion starts heading towards 10m per year.

I'm reserving judgment on changing things around. The problem I see with your approach is that there will probably be just as much of a feeding frenzy for DEs as there appears to be for CBs. Florio notes that Michael Johnson is getting tons of attention, for example:

Buccaneers pushing hard to sign Michael Johnson | ProFootballTalk

Red Bryant got a very strong deal from Jacksonville. We won't know how firm the market for DLs is, but I suspect that it's likely to mirror the CB market. I'm not sure there will be any bargains to be found in either group. And I also suspect that draft interest in both pass rushers and CBs will be quite robust - I think there's a good chance that 7-8 DBs go off the board in the first 32-40 picks (Gilbert, Dennard, Clinton Dix, Pryor, Fuller, Verrett, Robey and Ward), and probably another 4-5 DEs (Clowney, Ealy, Ford, and possibly Tuitt and Crichton).

It seems that teams are realizing that the ability to cover, combined with the ability to pressure the passer, is paramount to a successful defense.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm reserving judgment on changing things around. The problem I see with your approach is that there will probably be just as much of a feeding frenzy for DEs as there appears to be for CBs. Florio notes that Michael Johnson is getting tons of attention, for example:

Buccaneers pushing hard to sign Michael Johnson | ProFootballTalk

Red Bryant got a very strong deal from Jacksonville. We won't know how firm the market for DLs is, but I suspect that it's likely to mirror the CB market. I'm not sure there will be any bargains to be found in either group. And I also suspect that draft interest in both pass rushers and CBs will be quite robust - I think there's a good chance that 7-8 DBs go off the board in the first 32-40 picks (Gilbert, Dennard, Clinton Dix, Pryor, Fuller, Verrett, Robey and Ward), and probably another 4-5 DEs (Clowney, Ealy, Ford, and possibly Tuitt and Crichton).

It seems that teams are realizing that the ability to cover, combined with the ability to pressure the passer, is paramount to a successful defense.

To be fair, Bryant is a perfect mix of scheme and player at Jacksonville. And Jacksonville also have bundles of cap space. I don't know how much that instructs as regards the potential market for pass rushers. Certainly I think the weak draft class for edge players might suggest an active FA market.

 

[sevengables_2207]

The fact that this is seemingly a weak draft for edge DE prospects coupled with Ninko and Chandler playing far too many snaps in 2013 makes me hopeful the Patriots can sign one or both of Houston and Neal.

I do not know if Talib will be back, but if so, then the defense will start looking pretty exciting.

Throw in a trade up (after a Mallett deal for additional pick) for Donald and now we are talking about something potentially special for 2014 on the defensive side of the ball... barring injuries.

Seems a bit optimistic, but boy, this would float my boat.

 

[mayoclinic]

The fact that this is seemingly a weak draft for edge DE prospects coupled with Ninko and Chandler playing far too many snaps in 2013 makes me hopeful the Patriots can sign one or both of Houston and Neal.

I do not know if Talib will be back, but if so, then the defense will start looking pretty exciting.

Throw in a trade up (after a Mallett deal for additional pick) for Donald and now we are talking about something potentially special for 2014 on the defensive side of the ball... barring injuries.

Seems a bit optimistic, but boy, this would float my boat.

That would obviously work for me, but it seems a long way away right now.

 

[mayoclinic]

Very impressive writing.

Not only does he apply the term "bargain" to two of the few potential Impact Free Agents, in my view, who might indeed be reasonably priced, but I especially like his focus on the term "effectively versatile." :thumb:

Versatility ain't much good if it's versatile mediocrity!!

Yeah, I liked it. I think that Houston and Neal are the two guys who I really like right now as fits. Neither is a sack artist, which will hopefully keep their price down a bit, but both have great versatility and can provide effective pressure from multiple positions.

 

[Patriot Missile]

With the Sam Shields deal making the Talib re-signing a little less likely today (perhaps), I wonder if there's an argument for fixing the DL in free agency and attacking the secondary in the draft. Whether it be Joseph/Johnson or Melton/Allen or whichever combination people want, perhaps it might make more sense to target them and then draft the likes of Fuller/Ward/Pryor/Exum/Breeland/Dontae Johnson etc along with one or two TEs and an interior lineman.

I'm all for re-signing Talib but I start to baulk if the discussion starts heading towards 10m per year.

I'm starting to "baulk" at it too. His show me year was pretty darn good but the injuries just put a cloud over my enthusiasm if they give him a top tier contract. I'm to the point now if Revis came with a price tag of a third rounder I would pull it off. A 1st or 2nd is just too steep right now so we can pretty much forget that unless Tampa is just going for the wash.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm reserving judgment on changing things around. The problem I see with your approach is that there will probably be just as much of a feeding frenzy for DEs as there appears to be for CBs. Florio notes that Michael Johnson is getting tons of attention, for example:

Buccaneers pushing hard to sign Michael Johnson | ProFootballTalk

Red Bryant got a very strong deal from Jacksonville. We won't know how firm the market for DLs is, but I suspect that it's likely to mirror the CB market. I'm not sure there will be any bargains to be found in either group. And I also suspect that draft interest in both pass rushers and CBs will be quite robust - I think there's a good chance that 7-8 DBs go off the board in the first 32-40 picks (Gilbert, Dennard, Clinton Dix, Pryor, Fuller, Verrett, Robey and Ward), and probably another 4-5 DEs (Clowney, Ealy, Ford, and possibly Tuitt and Crichton).

It seems that teams are realizing that the ability to cover, combined with the ability to pressure the passer, is paramount to a successful defense.

5 years, 42m, 20m guaranteed for Eversen Griffen. Looks like pass rushers are going to get paid.

 

[Get it shawtaay]

Sorry Doug Farrar but I'd hardly classify Lamarr Houston as a guy we can buy low.

He's the best young FA on a team that is a long way away and has money to burn. He could be the #1 DL on the market all things considered, with Hardy tagged up. I really doubt he leaves Oakland and if he does it will be to sign a huge deal.

The question is whether or not you would swap out Wilfork for Houston in the vicinity of 8 mil a year.