Some comments on your most recent comments.
1. For fairness sake, I thought we should also add the Negatives on Christian Jones
2. Curious as to what round do you think Jones should go?
3. I just occurred to me, that if we do draft Jone, will we have already exceeded our allotted quota of Jones' on the 53 man roster.
I included the link assuming that people would look at the entire report, including the negatives. Jones was moved around considerably at Florida St. and had to change defensive coordinators and approaches, which probably ******ed his technical and positional development and affected his supposed "lack of instincts". He's not a finished product, but the fact that he could be successful in so many different spots and showed good development suggests that he probably can be coached up fairly quickly.
I'd personally consider Jones any time from around 62 on. I'm not sure where his draft stock will end up. I was expecting him to blow away the Combine with his athleticism, and he didn't. Not sure why. I'm waiting to see what he does at his Pro Day. My best guess is round 3 for Jones, but it's really a wild guess right now.
4. Time to forget about the possibility of drafting Aaron Donald. Its likely he'll be a top 15 pick. Even if the Pats were willing to trade up to get him, he'd have to drop into the early 20's for it to be a possibility. NOT going to happen. In fact, as I see more mocks. its becoming clear to me that unless the Pats are willing to trade up to the early 20's, they aren't likely to get my personal binky R. Hegaman.
I'm not giving up on Donald until someone else picks him. First, there's 2 months until the draft, and his draft stock, which has taken a meteoric rise in the past 6 weeks, could cool just a bit. I think it's unlikely he'll get past Dallas at #16, but it's possible. I'd personally trade 29+62 (or 29+Dont'a Hightower) to Pittsburgh to move up to 15 ahead of the Cowboys if Donald slips past Chicago at #14 (and in a draft where many teams are looking to trade back, one of those options might be adequate). If he slips past #16, then I'd definitely look to trade up for him. JMHO. I understand that it's a very low probability, but I'm personally not going to rule that one out. I think he's that good.
Unfortunately, EVERYONE is looking for someone who has the size and burst to push the pocket from the middle. SO despite Hageman's legitimate "question marks", his unique POTENTIAL is only going to elevate his stock as the evaluation process goes on. I can easily see him going in the top 20.
5. So here's my question. Who are the other DT's who have the potential to be legit inside pocket pushers. (Preferably 6'5 and over, though that's not a requirement) in the draft. I really won't be excited about drafting a solid run stuffer type, a la Ty Warren, even if it might be for the best.
BTW- in your opinion, who among the available UFA's have that pocket pushing skill set?
He's not a pocket pusher, but Dominique Easley is the guy I see offering the best alternative to Aaron Donald as a disruptive force. If Donald is out of reach I would trade back from 29 and take Easley in the high-mid 2nd round. As for a "pocket pusher", I'd look at Deandre Coleman (6'5" 315#) and Brent Urban (6'7" 295#) as guys offering some of the same skill set as Hageman. Justin Ellis would be my preference for a true NT.
In FA, I think Linval Joseph (6'4" 323#) would be the best run stopper/pocket pusher. There will be some demand for him, though.
6. I am less excited about your Ryan Shazier love UNLESS you think he can be transitioned into a true SS. Given what the Pats already have at the LB position, I think he'd be too much of a luxury to be picked that high and not have the size to play all 3 downs. On the other hand I would LOVE to add someone with close to the same skill set, but more risk, anytime after the 3rd round. Who would fall into that category?
I don't see Shazier as a pure SS conversion, but I think he has great versatility as a MLB/WILL/LB-S combination. With that said, I probably prefer Christian Jones or Jordan Tripp in the 3rd-4th round. Telvin Smith (6'3" 218#) is the other guy who comes to mind as a LB/S hybrid and possible SS conversion, but he'll probably go 3rd round at the latest.
7. I keep seeing you banging the table for Antone Exum in the back half of the draft. I don't really know much about him, could you tell us more about why the love and what are the negatives that would allow him to be there at the end of the draft.
Manx was pushing Exum before me, so I should probably defer to him. But, from my perspective, Exum is a big DB (5' 11 7/8" 213# at the Combine) who has played both CB and S at a high level at Virginia Tech. He was touted as a potential day 1-2 prospect in 2012, and considered coming out last year. He then decided to stay in school and tore his ACL in January 2013 playing basketball. He came back this year but was still far from 100% and only played sparingly (4 tackles, 1 pD) and his draft stock took a hit accordingly. He did OK at the Combine (4.59 40, 35" VJ, 7.05 3-cone) but probably wasn't 100%, and Dion Sanders noted during the drills that he thought Exum wasn't moving like he was completely healthy.
Here's one profile on Exum, FWIW:
Antone Exum Scouting Report: NFL Outlook for Virginia Tech CB | Bleacher Report
What I like about him: size, versatility, physicality, tackling ability, experience , smarts. Why could Exum fall to day 3? Injury, not completely healed, and questions about where he fits at the next level. I personally think he's better suited to a safety role, though Manx likes him outside. He could probably play both. He doesn't have the most fluid hips (not the greatest "verticity"). He's a smart player with experience in both positions. The same question was asked about Brandon Browner coming out.
8. I can see your case for Brandon Browner. I hope you are aware that he's most likely going to miss the first 4 games next season. The good news is that its likely to lower his cost, but the bad news is that he's going to miss the first 4 games. I like the idea of having him as a weekly match up player who can play outside at the CB against certain WR types, and inside as a SS. He'd be a good guy to raise the "Physicalness" of the secondary.
I'm aware of that, and already posted it on this thread. I'm ok with it, especially if we draft Exum or someone else (Deone Bucannan and Keith McGill have been mentioned). But even if not, I'm fine with Duron Harmon covering for 4 games. It will keep his cost down.
As with Exum, there is debate about how Browner might best be used (SS vs. CB). Kontra prefers to keep him outside at CB, with Exum playing starting SS. I think that both guys would give the Pats tremendous size and versatility, and I'd be happy to let the situation sort itself out. I think that signing Browner for a 2 year deal similar to Tommy Kelly would also give a great role model for a big CB/S hybrid like Exum.
9. As to Talib, I wonder what you think he's going to cost. Everyone seems to think the Grimes contract indicates the cost is going to be high. I disagree. I think the Grimes contract is GOOD news. Grimes and Verner were both rated as the top 2 CB's in FA. Verner has never missed a game and Grimes, at this point, comes with fewer injury issues than Talib, who has missed at least 20% of his games in EVERY season he's played since he's been in the league, and has a chronic hip condition.
So if Grimes' $6MM/APV is the top of the market, I can't see Talib getting more. In fact I can see a real case for it to actually be less, or at least with lower guarantees, and more incentives for playing time. Bottom line, signing Talib for anything that looks like $6MM/year is a no brainer for the Pats. I don't see another team who is likely to exceed that number by enough to get him to leave where he's knows he's going to be happy. In other words in the $8MM/yr area. Anything less than that, the Pats will likely compromise and keep him.
If fully expect to see him signed by the 11th. BTW- when he is signed, don't be fooled by the initial numbers. 9 times out of 10, the "real" ones put the team at considerably less risk.
I'm keeping my fingers crossed that Talib will be re-signed. I absolutely want him back, along with more depth at big CB (Brower, Exum, a late day 3 DB like Dontae Johnson, Phillip Gaines, Aaron Colvin or Jonathan Dowling) so that we can keep Arrington in the slot at all cost. I don't think you can count on any single player staying healthy for 16 games and the playoffs, but I think Talib can be a difference maker when healthy.
I think that the question will be how much money is fully guaranteed, and how the contract is structured. You can put together a 4/$32M contract that protects the Pats against injury and off-field issues. If Talib wants to be paid much more than Grimes, then it becomes more difficult.
