Wilfork and his future

[ausbacker]

I can see this being a debatable point (it's a yes for me by the way) but there is just no logical reason for responding to this question with "no way in hell". The role Vince plays in the locker room and his intelligence and leadership on the field make the question deserve more respect than that response.

There's also the fact that Vince played for reasonably team friendly contracts for the majority of his career given his importance to the team and standing as the best NT in the NFL. If ever there was a current Patriots player who had consistently outperformed his contract like Tom Brady, it would be Vince Wilfork.

In terms of the team perspective, the only way I'd like to see his contract re-worked is if Vince cannot get back to what he used to be. He's earned every penny he has collected from the Patriots.

 

[mgteich]

OK, so you would "give" Wilfork a new one-year contract with

$1M as a bonus
$2M as a roster bonus
$1M in salary (minimum)
and $3.5M incentives.

So, the patriots would be on the hook for $1M if Wilfork isn't good enough by the time the season is ready.

Since Wilfork is only getting $1M, I suspect that he'd simply say no, be cut, and rehab elsewhere and hope to do better before camp is ended.

Absolutely, but i would stagger the guaranteed money to make sure he is ready to play for the season. If he is on the roster at final cutdown then he gets the bulk of his guaranteed money. Give him a million to sign and the rest in August, then structure in playing time incentives as with Vollmer.

 

[mgteich]

As Miguel points out, this is straightforward. You make $6M of his salary a bonus (thus guaranteeing him $6M). He would get a salary of $1.5M which would be guaranteed as soon as the season starts.

Wilfork would get his $7.5M and the team would get $4M of cap relief (transfering it to dead money in 2015 and 2016)

I do not address the salary and incentives for the extension years of 2015 and 2106, since they do not affect the 2014 cap.
=====

BUT BE CLEAR, this gives Wilfork $6M of new money now, and $1.5M when the season starts, no matter how valuable he really is to the team.

A young defense needs leaders. I don't do cap estimates but if they can extend him and bring his cap cost down, then that's a no-brainer to me.

 

[Huckleberry1]

OK, so you would "give" Wilfork a new one-year contract with

$1M as a bonus
$2M as a roster bonus
$1M in salary (minimum)
and $3.5M incentives.

So, the patriots would be on the hook for $1M if Wilfork isn't good enough by the time the season is ready.

Since Wilfork is only getting $1M, I suspect that he'd simply say no, be cut, and rehab elsewhere and hope to do better before camp is ended.

You're right, it would take more than what i suggested to keep him, however I do think the injury is serious enough that they need to find ways to protect themselves if he can't go, they have too much money sitting around as it is.

 

[mgteich]

I agree.

However, IMHO, it will be very difficult to get such a contract written early in free agency when we want to use the $3.5-$4M of cap savings.

You're right, it would take more than what i suggested to keep him, however I do think the injury is serious enough that they need to find ways to protect themselves if he can't go, they have too much money sitting around as it is.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

I can see this being a debatable point (it's a yes for me by the way) but there is just no logical reason for responding to this question with "no way in hell". The role Vince plays in the locker room and his intelligence and leadership on the field make the question deserve more respect than that response.

Actually I've given several "logical" reasons that not a single person has disputed yet. I will try once more listing them and maybe....just maybe, someone will answer them without thinking we have "Wilfork 2010" coming through the door.


1.) Wilfork will be 33 years old next season

2.) Wilfork is gravely out of shape

3.) Wilfork played poorly last season

4.) Wilfork is coming off a very serious injury that most people don't come back from.


So yes...."no way in hell".

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Isn't it funny how quickly people forget the dominant 2011 and 2012 seasons Wilfork delivered for the Patriots before succumbing to injury in 2013.

Who cares what he did in 2011 or 2012? What is this Kindergarten?

You don't pay a player for what he did...you pay a player for what he can do for you in the coming year.

That's why, again, I'm glad we have Bob Kraft making decisions for this team and not our fanbase.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

Honestly the Pats have inked worse deals than Vince Wilfork coming off injury for $4M plus incentives.

If they think he can still play for 3-4 more years of course he gets extended. It's too easy, unless he's unreasonably (because of the injury) expecting a bunch of new money to be added to the extension. I don't know what the time frame is for them knowing where he is at physically to make that kind of decision, but as Brady6 mentioned prior they'd have to be high to let him play out the current contract. Either he'll get extended, or he'll get cut.

So because the Pats have made bad deals in the past we should be able to make a bad deal again? Well, who can argue with that logic?

Play 3 or 4 more years....what?...lol. He's 33 years old next year.

In the cases where the Pats have made bad deals, it was because they lacked information. In Wilfork's case, they have all the information they need. The risk is certainly not worth the reward.

 

[superpats]

Wilfy isnt gonna b close to the player of 5yrs ago. Age, it happens. I love wilfork to n writing this depresses me. Wilfork of 5yrs ago will b hard to replace. But truth is he was in decline b4 the injury. Saw it last yr when Incognito dominated him now ducasse. No player is worth 11mil as locker room leader or moral favorite. If he was already in decline u can bet acl accelerated that. I would bring him back at vet minimum n hope he contributes a lil something on the field. He certainly is no difference maker any more. All u hopefuls that he still elite keep in mind how all big guys dont just lose a step,they fall off at once. Just ask Ogden, flozell,pace n others who r in much better shape than wilfork. Those guys hung it up when they couldnt perform at respectable level. Im sure Vince will to when he realizes hes the guy now getting handled. When a flozell adams is cut sometimes a team signs a 33 34 yr old big man hoping he still can be effective, that team mostly always c it as a blown experiment. We cant go into season beleiving he is still the meat n potatos of our line. Its to big a gamble if we seriously expect a super bowl title being realistic. Just as bellichick cant keep trying to b cute bringing in these slots that r #3"s in any other offense as our #1! I think if we brought in a kenny Britt, Gordon,or Blackmon we would roll out a carpet n have a marching band,throwing a welcome party like the pope was coming. Thats Bad! Btw if we need to pull off a trade for one, mallet n a #1 pick isnt to much. Would u rather have Josh Gordon or another Hightower n Tavon Wilson??!!

 

[manxman2601]

Who cares what he did in 2011 or 2012? What is this Kindergarten?

You don't pay a player for what he did...you pay a player for what he can do for you in the coming year.

That's why, again, I'm glad we have Bob Kraft making decisions for this team and not our fanbase.

You think this decision comes down to Bob Kraft?

As for:

1.) Wilfork will be 33 years old next season

I'm not sure what this means. Players play older than this

2.) Wilfork is gravely out of shape

That's what training is for.

3.) Wilfork played poorly last season

Three games. That's your sample size?

4.) Wilfork is coming off a very serious injury that most people don't come back from.

I'm pretty sure we'd all say he needs to be released if he can't return from the injury. But that's not up for debate. The question is, if he can come back from the injury is he worth keeping? Your first three points aren't convincing enough to persuade me that he isn't considering what Vince brings to the team.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

You think this decision comes down to Bob Kraft?

As for:

Of course some players play at 33 years old, but they are the exception and not the rule. You don't build your teams on exceptions.

More importantly, age is not the only factor. It's all four factors, at the same time.

How many players who will be 33 years old, played poorly the previous year (even if it was 3 or 4 games), are gravely out of shape, and are coming off an achilles tear then go on to play well the next season?

I'm going to guess the answer is close to zero if not exactly zero.


Why on earth would you spend your millions on this guy when you could get a Linval Joseph for probably $6 million?


http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york-giants/post/_/id/34022/the-cost-of-keeping-linval-joseph

I would much rather have a 26 year old guy like Linval Joseph than a 33 year old guy coming off of major surgery.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

I love Vince and he's always done what was asked of him. It's a shame all our icons have to get older and he's in a position where a certain amount of youth is needed. Still, as long as he can maintain the quick explosiveness off the snap and eat up 2 blockers, he'll have a role.

all that being said, he needs to recover first and on last looks he needs more "Will" and less "fork". But, maybe that's a regular thing for a guy who isn't in there day to day working out (I'm sure he's working as hard as possible to recover, but probably can't burn calories like he normally does).

 

[manxman2601]

Of course some players play at 33 years old, but they are the exception and not the rule. You don't build your teams on exceptions.

More importantly, age is not the only factor. It's all four factors, at the same time.

How many players who will be 33 years old, played poorly the previous year (even if it was 3 or 4 games), are gravely out of shape, and are coming off an achilles tear then go on to play well the next season?

I'm going to guess the answer is close to zero if not exactly zero.


Why on earth would you spend your millions on this guy when you could get a Linval Joseph for probably $6 million?


The cost of keeping Linval Joseph with New York Giants - ESPN

I would much rather have a 26 year old guy like Linval Joseph than a 33 year old guy coming off of major surgery.

1. There's no guarantee they can get him.

2. Linval Joseph will cost more than 6m over time. He'll probably be a fairly expensive long-term commitment.

3. Is Linval Joseph better than a 90% Vince Wilfork. I don't know, I'll leave others to decide that.

4. Does Joseph offer the intangibles that Wilfork does? Intangibles aren't everything but they are a big part of this team's success. They won't sway BB on their own but they will be a factor that he weighs.


I'm not a doctor so I don't know what Vince's recovery will be like, neither do you and my point is that considering what he's been for the team and therefore what he might still be deserves a better more considered response than "no way in hell".

 

[mgteich]

When a player signs a long-term contract, the last year's salary is often simply a wish on the part of the player. In any case, it is pretty normal for a team not to pay out that last year's salary.

So, here we are.

The cap is less that it was 5 years ago.

Wilfork is not near the player he was even in 2011.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

1. There's no guarantee they can get him.

2. Linval Joseph will cost more than 6m over time. He'll probably be a fairly expensive long-term commitment.

3. Is Linval Joseph better than a 90% Vince Wilfork. I don't know, I'll leave others to decide that.

4. Does Joseph offer the intangibles that Wilfork does? Intangibles aren't everything but they are a big part of this team's success. They won't sway BB on their own but they will be a factor that he weighs.


I'm not a doctor so I don't know what Vince's recovery will be like, neither do you and my point is that considering what he's been for the team and therefore what he might still be deserves a better more considered response than "no way in hell".

My point wasn't that we should target "XYZ" player. My point was that there are signifcantly better options out there than a 33 year old severely overweight player coming off an achilles injury and a bad season.

90% of the 2013 Wilfork???.....I'm pretty sure that's a pretty easy bar to reach.

My response was well reasoned and unlike your responses are based upon facts. What evidence do you have that Wilfork will be his old 2011 self in 2014? You've presented zero evidence to suggest that to be true. Your "argument" is based upon "wishes" rather than reason.

I'm a Patriots fan not a Wilfork fan. Wilfork is a player. Players come and go.
I don't care if Wilfork is here or not here. I only care if he can help the team or not. All the evidence...not the feelings....not the tribal allegiances....all the evidence points to him not being Wilfork of 2011.

Time to move on.....no way in hell he should be paid.

 

[obgod3]

wow i didnt read the entire thread but this is a tough call. I believe he will be back and will renegotiate his contract. But I agree at 33 and having that injury he wont be the same guy ever. I know a lot of athletes and a few that ruptured the Achilles and they were never the same. Granted these guys ahve a higher level of medical and training available to them. I know some of my leg injuries have totally changed my life.

 

[RayClay]

An impact defensive tackle in his prime isn't usually cut loose.Seems like the Giants couldn't care less about resigning him, so what does that tell you.

Just cause he's better than the free agents we have doesn't make him an impact player.

 

[kennyb]

I think they need to a) get cap space and b) not give any guaranteed money or bonuses to Wilfork until they're sure what they're getting.

Only a cut or putting his whole salary as incentives would do that I think.

I think bb wants the best team he can field. Paying people for past service as opposed to future is not the way to do that.

I got ridiculed in here before for saying they'd probably cut him though.

 

[RI Patriots fan]

What facts have you come up with? Aside from stating that Wilfork is 33, the only "fact" you've come up with was the made up "most people don't come back from". Actually, between 66% and 71% do come back from an Achilles tear. The quality of their recovery is debatable and undefinable but they still "come back".

And no, I've not presented any evidence that a returned Wilfork will be the 2011 Wilfork. That's because at no stage have I said such a thing. Another debater who needs to use straw men to try and make his argument.

I don't know about making people take a course in capology before they post on this board. Maybe we should set the bar a bit lower at "not making stuff up".

Ok, so we can agree that Wilfork will be 33 years old. We can also agree that no evidence has been presented to demonstrate that Wilfork will be his 2011 self (regardless if you're claiming that to be true or not).

As to your point about Achilles injuries, I think I found the article where you gathered your evidence on coming back from achilles injuries. Here are some interesting facts from the article as well:


"The average age of a player sustaining a rupture was 29, with an average career before injury spanning six years.

Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury."


Return to football after Achilles tendon rupture | Lower Extremity Review Magazine


I think this evidence clearly suggests that the "older than 29 years old" Wilfork is more likely to miss games and play at a diminished level than play consistently and at a higher level after his achilles injury.

Wilfork being overweight is also a fact. I see no evidence to suggest that will change given his weight history and his current condition.

 

[RayClay]

Ok, so we can agree that Wilfork will be 33 years old. We can also agree that no evidence has been presented to demonstrate that Wilfork will be his 2011 self (regardless if you're claiming that to be true or not).

As to your point about Achilles injuries, I think I found the article where you gathered your evidence on coming back from achilles injuries. Here are some interesting facts from the article as well:


"The average age of a player sustaining a rupture was 29, with an average career before injury spanning six years.

Furthermore, in the reviewed 21 NFL skill players who returned to play, there were significant decreases in games played per season (11.67 games per year pre-injury versus 6.17 games per year postinjury) when averaged over the three seasons before the injury and the three seasons after the injury.3 There were also decreases averaging nearly 50% in power ratings of the returning players for the three seasons after the injury compared to the three seasons before the injury."


Return to football after Achilles tendon rupture | Lower Extremity Review Magazine


I think this evidence clearly suggests that the "older than 29 years old" Wilfork is more likely to miss games and play at a diminished level than play consistently and at a higher level after his achilles injury.

Wilfork being overweight is also a fact. I see no evidence to suggest that will change given his weight history and his current condition.

Did those players play inthe line, or WR or RB, CB safety?

It would make quite a difference, I'd say.

He plays a position standing in the middle of the line to a large extent.

We can also agree that no evidence has been presented to demonstrate that Wilfork will be his 2011 self (regardless if you're claiming that to be true or not).

Wow, there's an incisive logical statement.