Patriots Philosophy: Draft for Best Player/Value, Not Need

[maverick4]

The philosophy probably goes without saying, but our moves in free agency prove this: Adalius, Morris, Kyle Brady, Wes Welker... the Pats make sure every position is at least adequate so that going into the draft, they take the best player/value on their board, and don't need to worry about need.

 

[signbabybrady]

The philosophy probably goes without saying, but our moves in free agency prove this: Adalius, Morris, Kyle Brady, Wes Welker... the Pats make sure every position is at least adequate so that going into the draft, they take the best player/value on their board, and don't need to worry about need.

One point on the Philosophy is that while they dont draft for the biggest need they dont just take the best available They will not draft someone who is in a position that they dont need example they wont grab a QB very high even if he were the best available. the philosophy is more about not reaching for what you may percieve as a need when better players are there. also you have to keep in mind that best on their board may not be best on kipers board or other teams boards.

 

[shirtsleeve]

One point on the Philosophy is that while they dont draft for the biggest need they dont just take the best available They will not draft someone who is in a position that they dont need example they wont grab a QB very high even if he were the best available. the philosophy is more about not reaching for what you may percieve as a need when better players are there. also you have to keep in mind that best on their board may not be best on kipers board or other teams boards.

Pretty accurate post. They have a value grouping philosophy. It has been described by someone much more fluent in draft-o-nomics than I in the draft forum in the past. This group has to represent value, for the position in the draft, to the TEAM. Quite a good read. Check it out sometime.

 

[RayClay]

The philosophy probably goes without saying, but our moves in free agency prove this: Adalius, Morris, Kyle Brady, Wes Welker... the Pats make sure every position is at least adequate so that going into the draft, they take the best player/value on their board, and don't need to worry about need.

Betcha they draft a bunch of defensive backs.

 

[patchick]

Patchick Draft Philosophy: The Pats draft for need, but hate needs

It seems to me that the Patriots definitely do draft for need. When there's a hole in the roster, they move aggressively to fill it. Look at Mankins and Gostkowski, both drafted on the high side to fill the only starting vacancies the team has had in recent years.

But...they also go to great lengths to make sure they DON'T have a lot of holes, to allow them maximum flexibility in the draft. This team will head into April without a single open starting spot. That gives them the luxury of picking up a rare talent who might slide to them at almost any position (yoo-hoo, Adam Carriker!) It also lets them open their ears to advantageous trade-down offers. All of which will create the appearance, and fuel the myth, that they operate on a pure BPA basis. Which they don't.

Argumentatively yours,
Patchick

 

[marty]

Pretty accurate post. They have a value grouping philosophy. It has been described by someone much more fluent in draft-o-nomics than I in the draft forum in the past. This group has to represent value, for the position in the draft, to the TEAM. Quite a good read. Check it out sometime.

I remember that draft post! Can't recall the author, but maybe one of our mods could sticky that post if it can be found. A prime example of why this board is so good!!!!

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

I remember that draft post! Can't recall the author, but maybe one of our mods could sticky that post if it can be found. A prime example of why this board is so good!!!!

rookboston takes the blame for that effort. A very interesting read which like many theories, breaks down somewhat as it's tested. With more draft classes behind us, it's now more of a historical document. I don't recall if rook has been able to adapt the theory, adjusting for the new data, or if he's working on anything more complex than patchick's thoughts above to explain Belipioli chaos environments. I'll put it up again in the draft forum for those interested.

 

[stinkypete]

Betcha they draft a bunch of defensive backs.

Yes. You have to consider both the draft class and the free agent class when you head into the offseason. This is the strategy I suspect they used.

- We absolutely need a shot in the arm at LB. The LB draft class is weak. The only instant contributer out there is Patrick Willis, and he's not likely to fall. The other LBs are either too one dimensional (David Harris) or projects (Zak DeOssie, HB Blades, LaMarr Woodley), and cannot be relied on to make the team better in 2007.

On the other hand, it is a bumper crop for free agent agent linebackers. If we need to improve fast, it must be done through free agency.

-We need a quick and reliable WR. The draft for WRs is both top heavy and deep, but you can expact a typical run on recievers, and teams are going to reach. We can take advantage of this. Somebody will overpay in picks to move up to #24 to snag Robert Meacham or Sydney Rice. Neither of these guys can be expected to contribute during year one anyway. We can make a low risk move get a solid guy to develop during the early parts of day 2.

If our type of guy is out there in free agency, it's better to spend a little extra to get a sure thing, rather than to take a risk and go into the season undermanned. BB was obviously enamored with Welker.

-We need youth and depth in the secondary. Too many of our players are special teams/backup types. The draft is deep for cornerbacks, top heavy for safeties.

Likewise, this is a poor free agent class for defensive backs. There were a handful of break the bank types but very few players who fall into the "solid depth" category. As a result, it was essential that we use any means possible to keep Asante Samuel in town, at least for 1 more year. Also, it's clear that the best way to improve here is with day 1 picks.

 

[spacecrime]

Re: Patchick Draft Philosophy: The Pats draft for need, but hate needs

It seems to me that the Patriots definitely do draft for need. When there's a hole in the roster, they move aggressively to fill it. Look at Mankins

No one predicted their going after Mankins with their first pick. No one even thoukght they would draft any OLINEMAN in the first round, let alone a guard.

They has much bigger needs going into that draft, as they had bigger needs than RB going into last years draft. The big debate here was not whether the first round pick would be a LB, obviously it would be and that was taken for granted.

 

[RayClay]

We need more LBs, but they don't see that as a value position in the draft.

Hard to imagine them getting younger and more talented through FA, though.

That will be interesting.

Teams do not draft players they don't have a job for in the NFL, though. There simply isn't enough trading to make that worthwhile.

If you don't have a slot, or expect one to open up, why would you draft a guy at a position you were all set?

 

[patchick]

Re: Patchick Draft Philosophy: The Pats draft for need, but hate needs

No one predicted their going after Mankins with their first pick. No one even thoukght they would draft any OLINEMAN in the first round, let alone a guard.

They has much bigger needs going into that draft, as they had bigger needs than RB going into last years draft.

Much bigger needs? LG was the one and only open starting spot on the team. It was the clearest need; Mankins was a surprise because common wisdom had it that the Pats never draft interior linemen first day. As for last year, the open spot was at kicker and the Pats drafted a kicker high enough to cause a lot of grumbling on this board. After that, they were free to draft toward long-term overall value and FUTURE holes, like the 2007 starting RB.

 

[mgteich]

Yup!
Somehow defensive backs will be the best value for us at least once on Day One and at elast one on Day Two.

We draft hoping for 2008 and 2009 starters. As of now, our corners and nickel for 2008 are Hobbs, Spann and Gamara Williams.

Betcha they draft a bunch of defensive backs.

 

[pats63]

I bet it is going to be corners or safeties for our frist picks