McGinest predicts Pats to go 11-5.

[Kontradiction]

It Is What It Is » Willie McGinest: Patriots will finish 11-5, with losses to Falcons, Bengals, Broncos

Among the 5 losses, he predicts losses to the Falcons, Bengals, and Broncos. As of right now, I could see the losses to the Falcons and Broncos, but I can't see the Bengals beating the Pats. I think Talib, if healthy, is more than capable of containing A.J. Green and I don't see any of the other weapons the Bengals have giving us a hard enough time. Their pass rush is dangerous but they don't have an answer for the TE. As for the Broncos, if Ballard returns to full health and Amendola sticks, I don't see how they've improved enough to stop the short passing game that has carved them up so much in the past couple of years. But their passing game should be hard to contain as well. Welker will probably light up our defense like a Christmas tree.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

11-5 seems reasonable. Can't abide the thought of losing to Manning though. Pats & Brady most always have one stinker game unexpected loss.

 

[Kontradiction]

11-5 seems reasonable. Can't abide the thought of losing to Manning though. Pats & Brady most always have one stinker game unexpected loss.

My stinker game is the Tampa Bay game. Schiano understands Belichick well and that secondary is loaded.

 

[Sicilian]

I could see it. Early season is going to be tough. Defense always seems to take 4-6 weeks to hit a stride and the offense this year is going to need time to gel with all the new faces. Couple that with a four week stretch against Tampa, Atlanta, Cincy, and New Orleans, and 3-3 might be a good record through the first 6.

 

[dales804]

A record prediction in July? Obviously premature. It's like telling us about strength of schedule before anyone has played a game; it doesn't mean anything.

 

[Kontradiction]

A record prediction in July? Obviously premature. It's like telling us about strength of schedule before anyone has played a game; it doesn't mean anything.

No, and a lot can change. But there's not exactly a flurry of Pats related news and juicy details at this time.

 

[Oswlek]

No, and a lot can change. But there's not exactly a flurry of Pats related news and juicy details at this time.

Or, rather, the flurry of Pats related news ain't exactly enjoyable to discuss.

Personally, I have a hard time seeing this team winning less than 12 games, considering the 2011 and 2012 teams did that with worse rosters. Yes, the schedule appears to be a little tougher, but that is so hard to quantify right now. Did anyone see the resurrection of the NFCW coming at this point last year? Wasn't it just December of last year when people were wondering whether Atlanta would even win a playoff game because they skated by for most of the season? When did Cincy become a powerhouse? Hell, when did Denver learn how to hold NE under 30 points?

Not saying NE isn't flawed themselves, just that we tend to see our team's flaws more clearly and forget that others have issues themselves. The Patriots will almost certainly crap the bed against some terrible team that ends the season 5-11. But they'll beat their share of good teams as well.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

To me its hard to see this team lose 3 or more games. Even though we have lots of question marks, the team is still one of the best out there. This secondary really started gelling after talib came in. And when he went out in the AFCCG we saw how much he helped. As long as the pass rush improves and talib is healthy, I see no issue holding teams down to scoring less points than our O. Ras I was turning heads, who know maybe he will be better than talib? We won't know until the end of TC and pre season. But this team had the shaping to be very very good. And a more balanced team with a great O and good D. But we have to wait. We really have no clue.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

I think we'll go 13-3, as Gronkowski should be fully healthy by start of the post season. And the match up versus the Broncos and Falcons, I actually like us to win. I like our secondary now, both the safety rotation of McCourty, Big Wilson and young Wilson and our three corners (barring Alfonzo Dennard stays) Ras-I Dowling who could be a shutdown type, Aqib Talib and of course, Dennard. And I look for an improved pass rush with Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and those guys coming off the edge. Offensively, we'll be find with Tom Brady, those receivers and that dominant run game. So yes, 13-3 is what I'm predicting with wins against both Denver and Atlanta.

 

[Rob0729]

11-5 seems reasonable. Can't abide the thought of losing to Manning though. Pats & Brady most always have one stinker game unexpected loss.

Still not sure that the Broncos are nearly as good as people make them. I think the addition of Welker is not nearly as big as the loss of Dumerville. Manning already had two 1,000 yard receivers last year. Stokely had 555 yards and 5 TDs in the role Welker will be playing. Welker will make them a better offense, but he will siphon catches from Decker and Thomas.

Dummerville, on the other hand, will make their pass rush less effective. I don't think Shaun Phillips is an adequate replacement.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

I could see it. Early season is going to be tough. Defense always seems to take 4-6 weeks to hit a stride and the offense this year is going to need time to gel with all the new faces. Couple that with a four week stretch against Tampa, Atlanta, Cincy, and New Orleans, and 3-3 might be a good record through the first 6.

With a strong training camp, preseason reps and first two games then it may not take 4-6 weeks for the defense to hit a stride, I don't think it will take long at all.

 

[Rob0729]

Personally, I am not ready to make any prediction. Far too many unanswered questions:

• Will Gronk be back and anywhere close to 100%?
• Will the Pats sign Abraham after two a days are over (with the empty roster spots and no activity on Abraham's part, I think it is a good possibility)?
• What is going to happen to Dennard?
• Will Amendola and any other WR click with Brady right away?
• What is McDaniels' strategy now that he lost Hernandez who looked to be a big part of his plans?
• Will the rookies on defense take that next step?

 

[Reckedtrek]

I can see that. My "normal" prediction is 12-4.

5 tough games (@Falcons, Steelers, Denver, @Houston, @Baltimore) + division games are often very tough. I could see Miami getting one over on the Pats.

If NE goes 3-2 with the tough games, loses one to Miami and has it's usual game where it looks like Framingham high school is filling in for them, that's 4 losses right there. If they go 2-3 vs. the tougher opponents or come up just short in a close game , you're at 11-5. At 11-5 I still think they take the division. I think Miami is the closest threat, and I'm guessing they go 9-7.

 

[Oswlek]

Personally, I am not ready to make any prediction. Far too many unanswered questions:

• Will Gronk be back and anywhere close to 100%?
• Will the Pats sign Abraham after two a days are over (with the empty roster spots and no activity on Abraham's part, I think it is a good possibility)?
• What is going to happen to Dennard?
• Will Amendola and any other WR click with Brady right away?
• What is McDaniels' strategy now that he lost Hernandez who looked to be a big part of his plans?
• Will the rookies on defense take that next step?

This is precisely why making a prediction is fun.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Still not sure that the Broncos are nearly as good as people make them. I think the addition of Welker is not nearly as big as the loss of Dumerville. Manning already had two 1,000 yard receivers last year. Stokely had 555 yards and 5 TDs in the role Welker will be playing. Welker will make them a better offense, but he will siphon catches from Decker and Thomas.

Dummerville, on the other hand, will make their pass rush less effective. I don't think Shaun Phillips is an adequate replacement.

Willis Mcgahee is a decent size loss too. They are relying on a rookie and two JAGs in their backfield now.

Although I still think the Broncos are the best team in the AFC, they have a good amount of weaknesses. For instance, you can't get more "meh" than their defensive line:

Wolfe-Williams (r)-Knighton-Ayers

That's pretty bad. I think we're better at all four spots on the D-line.

Jones-Kelly-Wilfork-Ninkovich

 

[jmt57]

In case anybody missed it, here is a video of McGinest making his comments and 11-5 prediction for the Patriots:

32 in 32: New England Patriots - NFL Videos



And here is a transcript of his key points:

It Is What It Is » Willie McGinest: Patriots will finish 11-5, with losses to Falcons, Bengals, Broncos

On why he believes the Patriots will lose to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4:
“First of all, they’re going to be on the road. The thing that I’m seeing about the Atlanta Falcons, where the Patriots struggle most is in their pass defense; they’ve had a hard time with the defensive backfield and stopping the pass and stopping plays down the field. The big plays down the field have been their Achilles heel so if I look at the passing attack with the Falcons versus the Patriots, I know they got better with Adrian Wilson and they re-signed [Aqib] Talib but I think they’re going to have a hard time with the Falcons.”

On why he believes the Patriots will lose to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5:
“The Patriots usually don’t lose two games in a row; history says that. But I look at that pass rush and I look at going into Cincinnati, it’s a tough place to play. The pass rush for the Bengals is difficult for the Patriots to handle.”

On why he believes the Patriots will lose to the Denver Broncos in Week 12:
“This is a team that has gotten better and they improved in the passing game. Peyton Manning wins this matchup.”

On who Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will miss more: wide receiver Wes Welker or tight end Aaron Hernandez:
“It’s Wes Welker, without a doubt. Here’s a guy with 600-plus receptions in the last six years…You talk about somebody who [Tom Brady] trusts, a guy he can go to who has been consistent, a guy that Tom knows that wherever he puts that ball, whatever adjustments he tells him to make, Wes is going to come up with those big plays. Wes has been one of the top receivers – if not the top receiver – as far as a quarterback connection with the receiver in the league. Aaron Hernandez was a really good player, up and coming, but when you talk about a guy like Wes, he was everything to the Patriots for the last six years.”

On if his prediction that the Patriots will finish 11-5 in 2013 speaks more to his belief in quarterback Tom Brady or head coach Bill Belichick:
“Both…What we leave out is they do have some other players with Danny Amendola; because he hasn’t been healthy, we kind of count him out but here’s a guy who if he stays healthy, I think he could be significant in that offense. Donald Jones, a guy they picked up, and then [Shane] Vereen out of the backfield. You have to give a little credit to Josh McDaniels as well. He’s been able to deal and switch the gameplan depending on his personnel; the Patriots are really, really good at that. If they don’t have a player, if more receivers are their strength, the tight ends are down – whatever it is, they’re able to change things around and change their gameplan according to the personnel that they have.”

On how big a part the running backs will be in the passing game for Tom Brady:
“It’s going to have to be big. If you look at it, they’re probably going to have to run the ball a little bit more and I think they’ll lean on that because they have two very good running backs with [Stevan] Ridley and [Shane] Vereen. Vereen creates those mismatches as we’ve seen in the playoffs with linebackers when you motion him out and put him on linebackers.​

 

[Sicilian]

With a strong training camp, preseason reps and first two games then it may not take 4-6 weeks for the defense to hit a stride, I don't think it will take long at all.

I hope so, but going by recent years I'll believe it when I see it. I'm one of those who doesn't think the defense was as atrocious as many make it out to be, but it still hasn't been of the caliber where it can win games if the offense is struggling (consistently). I think they can get there this year, but not likely in the early season.

 

[Oswlek]

I hope so, but going by recent years I'll believe it when I see it. I'm one of those who doesn't think the defense was as atrocious as many make it out to be, but it still hasn't been of the caliber where it can win games if the offense is struggling (consistently). I think they can get there this year, but not likely in the early season.

Even the best NE defenses tend to need 6-8 games to put it all together. I suspect we'll see more of the same this year, though I think the floor level might be higher than it has been the past two seasons.

 

[MoneyFX]

I think we'll go 13-3, as Gronkowski should be fully healthy by start of the post season. And the match up versus the Broncos and Falcons, I actually like us to win. I like our secondary now, both the safety rotation of McCourty, Big Wilson and young Wilson and our three corners (barring Alfonzo Dennard stays) Ras-I Dowling who could be a shutdown type, Aqib Talib and of course, Dennard. And I look for an improved pass rush with Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and those guys coming off the edge. Offensively, we'll be find with Tom Brady, those receivers and that dominant run game. So yes, 13-3 is what I'm predicting with wins against both Denver and Atlanta.

I agree. I'm kinda worried about the Texans matchup because Hernandez was such a key contributor in those games. He literally destroyed the linebackers in man coverage in those games. But now, I expect Vereen to be the new moveable chess piece within the offense. I just hope the Patriots can have a threat of a vertical passing game within the offense and that they can find a red zone target or two besides Gronkowski, if he misses time for injury.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Alot can change but given the ??'s on both sides and what appears to be a tough schedule I'd agree with 11-5 for now. Who the losses are to I have no idea but unless we have a 2010-like instant gel can't see much better than that.

Which is fine because regular season really means jack squat anymore, as long as we're somewhat healthy going into the playoffs.