Offensive expectations

[Sciz]

Top 5 scoring offense still. They were a full TD ahead of #4 last season without one TE for most of the season. They'll be fine.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

The Offense will roll as always, meaning expectations should be very high this year.

- First line of order, those running-backs are extremely talented and gifted in many different areas with many different complimentary styles. You have a rising superstar in RB Stevan Ridley who rushed for over 1,200 yards last year. A jack of all trades, dual talented all purpose running-back Shane Vereen who does a great job as a receiver and situational third down back, who's actually also a very good runner.. good vision, power and speed combo. The hurdling bull, LeGarrett Blount who made a living creating his own highlight reels battering linebackers and defensive backs, while also leaping over their heads on occasion. And last but not least, you have former FED-EX Ground player of the week Brandon Bolden who boasts a nice combination of size, power and speed who is also a decent receiver out of the back field.

- Secondly, the underrated free-agent pickup of WR Danny Amendola will pay huge dividends for us down the road this season. The guy simply gives it his all every play, and has earned the respect of the league by the time he hit FA this off season. Teams were licking their chops, bidding at who is going to get first crack at him. Made tremendous plays with a quarterback in lesser caliber then Brady but now gets to catch passes from Brady? Not only that, but his youth, speed, quickness, routes, hands, and ability to get deep are all above Wes Welker's head at this point in his career. Tom Brady could turn this guy into a star, even taking over games... It could get that good, because lets not forget that Amendola is more accomplished and established at this point in his career then Wes was we he first came to NE back in 2007.

- Blessing how a very good tightend in Jake Ballard, who when healthy provides everything you look for in a starting caliber NFL tightend can jump right in, in place of our fallen superstars. This guy is extremely capable and can easily achieve 800 yards and 8 TDs with Tom Brady. He was Eli Manning's security blanket during their SB season, and just imagine what Brady could do. He is big, strong, deceptively fast, runs good routes and has glue hands.

- Aaron Dobson and Josh Boyce are rookies and raw but they are still professionals and possess any physical trait and attribute that you want in a productive NFL wide receiver. And the fact they that get to catch from the best, in addition to learning from the best and receive coaching from the best will I believe, make them that much better. Especially when a kid gets compared to Larry Fitzgerald and Randy Moss.

 

[tonyto3690]

Offense will put up yards and struggle a bit in red zone. Brady will take a LOT of hits this year as the Pats go to a more spread offense.

I don't think the solution to a lack of quality WRs is to go to a spread offense...

 

[ausbacker]

I'd be more than happy for the O to regress a little if it means the D improves tremendously.

 

[bostonia3333]

My explosive expectations is that every game against a non AFC east team is going to be like the 2009 Wild Card game against the Ravens, where every Brady pass is a richochet off Sam Aiken's helmet/back

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

A little less passing, but a lot more running.
Get the play-action going to make things a little easier for the new WRs.

For the RBs, Ridley and Vereen did great last season, but it was only their second seasons and they are only going to get better. Ridley added muscle and will be even harder to take down. Hopefully he can kill the clock late in games. Look for Shane to get lots of catches from the backfield as the new change of pace back. He has the potential to be better than Danny Woodhead. Bolden will get opportunities to contribute, I don't expect Leon Washington to get much snaps on offense because of ST and I'm not sure if Blount makes the team or not.

For the WRs, it's deeper, faster, bigger and more physical than last year's group. But, a lot more unknowns than last year. Dobson and Boyce need to be able to complement Amendola on the outside, but even Danny can play outside at times too. Dobson, Amendola, Boyce, Edelman, Jones/Jenkins is definitely a lot more than just Welker, Lloyd, Edelman (only played 9 games), an old Deion Branch and Donte Stallworth for one game. It's hard to tell how good this group could be, but it is a step in the right direction in addressing the weaknesses from last season. Instead of 1-2 guys getting most of the yards and the rest get little, it could be more of a balanced production, more like a 900-1000 yd guy, a 700-800 guy and maybe two 400-500 yd guys.

For the TEs, I don't know what's going to happen with Hernandez and Gronkowski. I can guess that Gronk will be back Week 1, but not at 100%. But I hope Jake Ballard can at least contribute to the offense at least a good bit of what he did in 2011 with the Giants. He's big and could be a good red zone threat. Interested in Sudfeld too.

I think the offense will still average over 30 PPG, due to Tom Brady's ability to "make things work" and the fact that the defense will be much better and force even more turnovers to give Brady a shorter field. You also have to factor in Leon Washington and his abilities in the return game too.

It's only June, but I just hope that in the playoffs, the offense won't struggle again when they face teams that will take away the middle of the field and test them vertically. And who knows if the whole offense will be healthy? Injuries always happen.

I agree with all the points above..

Stevan Ridley has bulked up, and I believe will be even better and already a top 10 running back in my book who will be a constant in the 1,200 yard club.

Shane Vereen has every ability to be better than Danny Woodhead. His technical skills, his awareness, route running, hands, breaking tackles, elusiveness ... he has the total package of an all around dual threat and adds an extra dynamic being he is a complete running-back and complete receiver.

And yes, our WR group has a lot of unknowns but has addressed our needs by becoming faster, stronger, more athletic and plain out deeper. I think I forgot to mention that Julian Edelman can become a star if he stays healthy. He is electric, our own jackknife and can be a version of NE's DeSean Jackson. And Danny Amendola adds an extra dynamic being that he can get deep and get behind defenders. Defensive backs don't just have to worry about keeping his underneath routes at a minimum but they also have to worry about him getting past them. That's more of a headache to worry about defensively. And the young guys Dobson and Boyce have all the combination of speed, size, can route excellent routes and Dobson has the set of great hands.. and Boyce has solid hands but will see how that progresses. If you ask me, I think this offense will be even more dynamic then in years past because of added dimensions and strengths in the passing game. Don't forget Michael Jenkins, the solid vet that's turning heads big time this off season and unknown Donald Jones who has some valuable intangibles given in the RIGHT offense with the RIGHT quarterback throwing him the ball.

TE wise, Jake Ballard can step right in and maybe not be Gronk or Aaron but be highly productive and a threat, very much so where defenses will have a hard time containing him. Lets not forget, he was a near probowl candidate for the NFC back in 2011 and SB champ.

And yes, Tom Brady can and will make things work. That's why he is the best of all time and the best in the game today. Not to mention plays for the best coach perhaps of all time and definitely the best in the game today. We will have a great year.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

We had a defense that got three and outs and gave us a short field to work with. Along with the fact in general offense was down that year and the past few years offenses have been higher scoring overall.

The second best offense that year was 26.8 PPG. That would not even be top 5 in todays league.

Added premiere SS/OLB Adrian Wilson
Chandler Jones and Hightower could rise this season
Tavon Wilson had 4 INTs last year, and could be even better this year
Devin McCourty with a full season at FS
Probowl caliber CB Aqib Talib re-signed
Kyle Arrington re-signed
Alfonso Dennard returning
I like what DE/DT Justin Francis can do
Ras-I Dowling turning heads and healthy, and playing like he can
drafted young pass rushing hybrid wonders Jamie Collins and Michael Buchanan
Signed Tommy Kelly and Armstead at DT
Dane Fletcher back healthy
Got deeper at DB through draft.

We still have Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Rob "Don't call me Vrabel" Ninkovich, Brandon Spikes, and other talented proven vets returning so.....

I think we will be just fine...

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

I don't think the solution to a lack of quality WRs is to go to a spread offense...

There isn't a lack of quality at WR. We have more talent then some seasons I've known in the past.. last year we just had Wes Welker and the tightends .. this year we have someone that can be even better than Wes Welker, potentially dangerous Julian Edelman, two very gifted and high quality young guys (I stop using the word rookie these days because of how players come in the NFL and sometimes dominate) a proven vet in Michael Jenkins who is looking to raise his career and an unknown commodity in Donald Jones but has talent never the less. That's MORE options. Plus Shane Vereen can catch out of the backfield so throw him in there too. That's more then enough for the spread offense.

 

[patsinthesnow]

I'd be more than happy for the O to regress a little if it means the D improves tremendously.

I agree with this, would you take the 2006 Pats over the 2011 Pats if you had to choose a team you would want the 2013 Pats to be like?

2006 Patriots 12-4:

24.1ppg for
14.8ppg against
+9.2ppg differential
336ypg for
294ypg against

2011 Patriots 13-3:

32.1ppg for
21.4ppg against
+10.7ppg differential
428ypg for
411ypg against

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I don't think the solution to a lack of quality WRs is to go to a spread offense...

I agree with you. This team's best bet is probably to rely on the defense getting better and making big stops, and then on offense use more play-action and maintain the threat of the run with our talented RB's.... basically the Patriots 2001-2004 formula. Doesn't mean that is what is likely to happen, it's just a prediction.

 

[Big_Wheel]

I think Amendola is a better talent than Welker. Brady makes good receivers into elite receivers and I see an improvement in production there once the two of them develop a synergy.

I would not be surprised to see the Pats run the ball a lot more than they have in previous years and move up from 7th in the league in rushing to a top 3. They certainly have the offensive line to do it. They had a little over a minute to the positive in time of possession last year and a stronger running game will help that number while greatly assisting the D.

 

[MoneyFX]

You have to also factor in the fact that Leon Washington will be manning the kickoff return game, maybe Edelman again for the punt return too. That will also lead to shorter fields for Brady and the offense to work with.

Even though the defense has been bad the past few seasons, they have always had a knack for getting lots of turnovers. That will also give Brady and the offense a shorter field.

But in the playoffs, they struggle to force turnovers. In the Jets playoff game in 2011, the Ravens/Giants games in 2012 (I chose the Ravens game b/c Brady struggled, even though they won) and the Ravens game in 2013, the Patriots defense only forced ONE turnover combined in those four games.
B/c of that, the offense had to mostly work with a long field.

I know it's off topic, but I expect the defense to improve greatly with the continuity in the secondary, the veteran presence of Adrian Wilson in the SS position, the additions of Armstead and Kelly to the interior pass rush, and the year two improvement of Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, Alphonso Dennard and Tavon Wilson.

 

[NEPettyOfficer72]

You have to also factor in the fact that Leon Washington will be manning the kickoff return game, maybe Edelman again for the punt return too. That will also lead to shorter fields for Brady and the offense to work with.

Even though the defense has been bad the past few seasons, they have always had a knack for getting lots of turnovers. That will also give Brady and the offense a shorter field.

But in the playoffs, they struggle to force turnovers. In the Jets playoff game in 2011, the Ravens/Giants games in 2012 (I chose the Ravens game b/c Brady struggled, even though they won) and the Ravens game in 2013, the Patriots defense only forced ONE turnover combined in those four games.
B/c of that, the offense had to mostly work with a long field.

I know it's off topic, but I expect the defense to improve greatly with the continuity in the secondary, the veteran presence of Adrian Wilson in the SS position, the additions of Armstead and Kelly to the interior pass rush, and the year two improvement of Chandler Jones, Donta Hightower, Alphonso Dennard and Tavon Wilson.

Yes! people are finally starting to see that we are abundantly talented on both sides of the ball and improved tremendously. We could have the best team seen in a while because here is the thing. There is potential and ability all over our roster but most teams don't know how to use it. Most teams....... but our staff .....

Hall of Fame and Elite Headcoach, best mind in football - Bill Belichick
Record Breaking young OC and playcaller - Josh McDaniels
Great mind in football as Asst HC and OL - Dante Scarnecchia
Perhaps the GOAT and 1st or 2nd best QB in NFL - Tom Brady
Groomed Givens, Patten, Branch, and Brown WR Coach - Brian Daboll
Veteran wisdom 10 years experience at WR - Michael Jenkins
Years of experience and knowledge at DL/LB - Pepper Johnson
Over 10 years of elite experience at safety and LB - Adrian Wilson
9 years of experience - DT Vince Wilfork
9 years of experience - DT Tommy Kelly
7 years of experience - OLB/DE Rob Ninkovich
Jerod Mayo can also offer guidance for young LBs

 

[ivanvamp]

Worst-case scenario: Ridley suffers another big concussion, Gronk's recovery is slow and he misses essentially the entire season, Hernandez is completely gone, Amendola gets injured, and Brady takes a beating, along with the defense completely sucking. Pats in that scenario still finish 9-7 and are in the hunt for the playoffs.

Best-case scenario: Gronk is back after the 8-week PUP time is up, Hernandez is exonerated and plays, O-line is dominant, Amendola is awesome and healthy, and the defense takes a huge step forward. Pats in that scenario finish 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC, and make the Super Bowl.

Probable scenario: Gronk misses 8 weeks, Hernandez is suspended by the league and misses the year, Amendola misses a couple of games, running game is solid, defense improves from last year, and Brady is Brady. Pats in that scenario finish 12-4 and the #2 seed in the AFC, and are playing in the AFCCG at a minimum.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Worst-case scenario: Ridley suffers another big concussion, Gronk's recovery is slow and he misses essentially the entire season, Hernandez is completely gone, Amendola gets injured, and Brady takes a beating, along with the defense completely sucking. Pats in that scenario still finish 9-7 and are in the hunt for the playoffs.

Best-case scenario: Gronk is back after the 8-week PUP time is up, Hernandez is exonerated and plays, O-line is dominant, Amendola is awesome and healthy, and the defense takes a huge step forward. Pats in that scenario finish 14-2 and the #1 seed in the AFC, and make the Super Bowl.

Probable scenario: Gronk misses 8 weeks, Hernandez is suspended by the league and misses the year, Amendola misses a couple of games, running game is solid, defense improves from last year, and Brady is Brady. Pats in that scenario finish 12-4 and the #2 seed in the AFC, and are playing in the AFCCG at a minimum.

I don't see gronk going on PUP. It makes absolutely no sense.

 

[ivanvamp]

I don't see gronk going on PUP. It makes absolutely no sense.

If I understand the rules right, here are his options:

(1) PUP - can come back in 8 weeks
(2) plays right away - not happening
(3) goes on IR - can't play all year

But maybe there was a rule change last year allowing them to have one guy on some sort of recallable IR or something like that? But what do you think they'll do with him?

 

[Bruins29]

If I understand the rules right, here are his options:

(1) PUP - can come back in 8 weeks
(2) plays right away - not happening
(3) goes on IR - can't play all year

But maybe there was a rule change last year allowing them to have one guy on some sort of recallable IR or something like that? But what do you think they'll do with him?

They will not PUP him. Do you understand? If they do that means he wont be able to practice until week 6. That means he wont have practiced football from last year until 6 weeks into the season. Not a good scenario for your second best player and possibly your best player.

Unless he regresses PUP aint happening. They will just leave him on the roster. That is what you do with your best players.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

If I understand the rules right, here are his options:

(1) PUP - can come back in 8 weeks
(2) plays right away - not happening
(3) goes on IR - can't play all year

But maybe there was a rule change last year allowing them to have one guy on some sort of recallable IR or something like that? But what do you think they'll do with him?

You can keep him on the roster and make him inactive or just not play. Pup makes him unable to practice for 6 weeks, so it hurts the team even more. He will most likely be out there catch passes from Tom and spiking the ball.

 

[ivanvamp]

Yep, I guess that's a possibility.

 

[jmt57]

A balanced look at expectations for the Pats:

Five reasons to be optimistic and five reasons to be pessimistic about Patriots and their Super Bowl chances - WEEI | Christopher Price


For the glass half full crowd:

• the running game
• an improved defense
• the Pats play in the AFC East
• the rookies
• Tom Brady and Bill Belichick

For the glass half empty crowd:

• turnover at WR
• the situation at TE
• so many new faces could slow down the uptempo, no-huddle offense
• distractions
• the elite teams in the AFC are still just as good, if not better than they were